5 Elmhurst Dr · New York Mills, NY 13413

$279,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,448 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1951 Est $240k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.3/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 3-bath home located in the highly sought-after New Hartford School District! Offering over 1,800 square feet of living space, this spacious home features a bright open-concept layout perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The large kitchen flows seamlessly into the living area, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere for family and guests alike. The spacious primary bedroom includes its own private full bathroom, providing a comfortable retreat. Recent updates throughout the home give it a modern feel while still maintaining charm and functionality. Additional highlights include on-demand hot water, affordable taxes, and a large pri

Key facts

• Near restaurants
• Large kitchen
• On-demand hot water

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LARGE KITCHEN
• PRIVATE FULL BATHROOM
• ON-DEMAND HOT WATER
• LARGE PRIVATE BACKYARD
• NEAR RESTAURANTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $184 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (5.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.1% in New York Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#175 in NY, #2,712 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• New Hartford Central School District (suburban): math 65% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #128 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $279k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $263,738 (5.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.83%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $240,368
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Paulevan Pl	0.44mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,440 (-1%)	2mo	$225,000	$156	70
8586 Seneca Tpke	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,592 (+10%)	3mo	$105,000	$66	62
6 Helen Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,348 (-7%)	10mo	$250,000	$185	59
9 Sycamore Dr E	0.51mi	4/1.0	1,420 (-2%)	21mo	$236,000	$166	56
5 Hilltop Ter	0.59mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,614 (+12%)	12mo	$250,000	$155	38
17 Larchmont Dr	0.41mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,637 (+13%)	15mo	$270,000	$165	37
14 Tamarack Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,300 (-10%)	12mo	$280,000	$215	37
2 Sycamore Dr E	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,608 (+11%)	20mo	$224,900	$140	34
7 Hilltop Ter	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,305 (-10%)	20mo	$239,000	$183	34
64 Merritt Pl	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,246 (-14%)	11mo	$260,000	$209	34
8 Medford Pl	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,534 (+6%)	16mo	$230,000	$150	33
54 Clintonview Blvd	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,648 (+14%)	0mo	$425,000	$258	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-33,470
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-13,967
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13413

• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,637 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$320 /mo · $3,842/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,405

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
167 Clinton Rd New Hartford, NY	3.0	1.0–2.5	1063	$3,000	$2.82	44d	15	0.92mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $279,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $279,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $279,000 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $279,000 Active 1023-char remark
19. 2023-11-07
    soldstatus $140,000
20. 2023-08-03
    historical
21. 2023-07-15
    price $189,900
22. 2023-07-10
    listed $199,900 Active
23. 1993-03-22
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,842 · $320/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,279 · $357/mo
• Expected delta: +$436/yr (+$36/mo · 11.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,649
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$3,842
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,532
• − Management: −$2,532
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$2,397
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$575
• After-tax cash flow: $2,783/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Hartford Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620370
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,028
• Composite: 61.37/100
• National rank: #769
• State rank: #128 of 590 in NY

Livability — New York Mills

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #175
• US rank: #2712

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oneida County · 89,710 people
• City population: 3,012
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,742
• Household income: $95,261
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 395.0

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 4% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Vietnam, China, Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.17%
• Current HPI: 295.4235
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1168.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $279,000 FSBO.com
• 2023-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-03 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2023-07-15 Price Changed $189,900 CNYIS
• 2023-07-10 Listed $199,900 CNYIS
• 1993-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,842 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.