2929 W Gulf Dr #306 · Sanibel, FL 33957

$1,650,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,563 sqft · Condo public records · 220 Days on market

Built 1978 $1500/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

C. 5854 - Enjoy expansive views of the Gulf of Mexico from every room of this spacious 3 bedroom condo featuring a beautifully remodeled kitchen with granite counter tops and custom wood cabinetry. A wrap around glass enclosed all weather lanai allows one to enjoy the view every day while adding additional value and space to this inspiring place to call home. This beachfront jewel is being sold fully furnished with every comfort one would expect. Start realizing your dream of easy, maintenance free living at one of Sanibel's premier locations.

Key facts

• Gulf side pool
• Private boardwalk
• Endless views

Tags

• ENDLESS VIEWS
• WRAPAROUND LANAI
• COASTAL OASIS
• PRIVATE BOARDWALK
• GULF SIDE POOL
• NEW PICKLEBALL COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed on a conditional basis; contact for details
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with management; HOA fee $1,500 monthly; Association includes insurance, legal/accounting, grounds maintenance, pest control, recreation facilities, reserve fund, sewer, trash and water; Community amenities include beach rights and access, pool, pickleball, shuffleboard, bike storage and storage; Condo hotel community with elevator; near hotel/motel

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1 covered garage space (detached not indicated)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story; Entry level 4; Faces northeast; Resale property
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Built-up and flat roof; Pillar/post/pier raised foundation
• Exterior features: Courtyard; Manual shutters; Community pool; Gulf waterfront; Southwest exposure; Municipal irrigation; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Freezer; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Split bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Dual sinks; Separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Impact glass windows; Breakfast bar; Built-in features; Dual sinks; Combined living and dining area; Separate shower (shower only); High-speed internet; Split bedroom floor plan; Furnishing negotiable; Den
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $1.65M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($31k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $1.65M).
• Recommended offer: $1.45M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.8% in Sanibel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#541 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: The Sanibel School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #5 of 2,144 statewide, top 0%, 289 students, 12% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 57% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 526 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $50k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.45M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $200k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $1.10M; list at $1.65M implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,452,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.72%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-104,206
• Equity at exit: $246,020

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $122,025
• Equity at exit: $142,662

Cash invested: $462,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33957

• Home prices YoY: -15.7%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $19,043 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,653
• Tax from tax record: −$1,230 /mo · $14,765/yr
• Insurance: −$688
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$1,500
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,999
• Net cashflow: $2,547

Break-even live

Break-even rent $15,819

Max offer price $1,650,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,481	-5% $3,014	+0% $2,547	+5% $2,080	+10% $1,613
Rent	-10% $1,042	-5% $1,795	+0% $2,547	+5% $3,299	+10% $4,051
Rate	-1.0pp $3,378	-0.5pp $2,966	base $2,547	+0.5pp $2,119	+1.0pp $1,684

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $412,500
• Closing costs: $49,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2445 W Gulf Dr Unit 47B Sanibel, FL	2.0	2.0	1243	$20,000	$16.09	25d	1	0.80mi
2445 W Gulf Dr Unit 32E Sanibel, FL	2.0	2.0	1243	$18,000	$14.48	25d	1	0.87mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,500 · $18,000/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 220 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 216 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 215 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 214 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 212 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 208 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 206 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 201 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 200 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,650,000 Active 199 DOM
11. 2026-04-14
    price $1,650,000
12. 2026-02-11
    price $1,795,000
13. 2025-11-13
    listed $1,850,000 Active
14. 2025-04-16
    historical
15. 2024-07-05
    listed $1,999,000 Active
16. 2011-07-06
    soldstatus $1,100,000
17. 2011-07-01
    soldstatus $1,100,000 549-char remark

    Show marketing remark (549 chars)

    C. 5854 - Enjoy expansive views of the Gulf of Mexico from every room of this spacious 3 bedroom condo featuring a beautifully remodeled kitchen with granite counter tops and custom wood cabinetry. A wrap around glass enclosed all weather lanai allows one to enjoy the view every day while adding additional value and space to this inspiring place to call home. This beachfront jewel is being sold fully furnished with every comfort one would expect. Start realizing your dream of easy, maintenance free living at one of Sanibel's premier locations.

18. 2011-06-07
    price $1,449,000 549-char remark

    Show marketing remark (549 chars)

    C. 5854 - Enjoy expansive views of the Gulf of Mexico from every room of this spacious 3 bedroom condo featuring a beautifully remodeled kitchen with granite counter tops and custom wood cabinetry. A wrap around glass enclosed all weather lanai allows one to enjoy the view every day while adding additional value and space to this inspiring place to call home. This beachfront jewel is being sold fully furnished with every comfort one would expect. Start realizing your dream of easy, maintenance free living at one of Sanibel's premier locations.

19. 1999-04-20
    soldstatus $700,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $14,765 · $1,230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,765 · $1,230/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $228,516
• − Mortgage interest: −$92,426
• − Property taxes: −$14,765
• − Insurance: −$13,368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$18,281
• − Management: −$18,281
• − HOA: −$18,000
• − Depreciation: −$48,000
• Taxable income: $5,395
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,295
• After-tax cash flow: $29,267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sanibel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #541
• US rank: #10166

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sanibel, FL
• City population: 6,402
• Population (ZIP): 6,402

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.08%
• Current HPI: 501.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+135.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $1,650,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $1,795,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $1,850,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-04-16 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2024-07-05 Listed $1,999,000 FORTMLS
• 2011-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $1,100,000 Public Records
• 2011-07-01 Sold (MLS) $1,100,000 FORTMLS
• 2011-06-07 Price Changed $1,449,000 FORTMLS
• 1999-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $700,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $14,765 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.