4151 Odessa St · Dallas, TX 75212

$420,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,304 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2025 6,360 sqft lot $182/sqft · at area comps Est $420k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Rent growth +1.4/5.0

Listing remarks

2% Seller Concessions, no flood insurance required. Property lies within the 500-year floodplain protected by a levee, verified through flood certificate and topographical surveys. Recently appraised; contact agent for details. Welcome to this stunning, newly built custom home in West Dallas! Designed for modern living and built with quality craftsmanship, this residence offers a perfect blend of style, comfort, and energy efficiency. Enjoy a thoughtfully planned layout, premium finishes, and a location that puts you close to everything Dallas has to offer. Approximately 2,200 sq ft of livable space with an open-concept floor plan, ideal for entertaining and everyday living. All information

Key facts

• 6,360 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is residential single family, not attached
• Financial info: Listing terms include Cash and Conventional
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Garage with epoxy flooring, garage door opener, garage doors facing front (2-car single door)
• Security: No specific security features provided
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; New construction completed in 2025
• Construction: Board & batten siding and stucco exterior; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2025 (new construction - complete)
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Wood fencing; Lot less than 0.5 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in refrigerator; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Vented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on one level); Primary bedroom with ensuite bath, dual master baths and granite countertops; Bedroom sizes: 15 x 16; 14 x 16; 14 x 15; 11 x 12
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms total (2 full, 1 half); Primary bath with double vanity
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Built-in features; Double vanity; Walk-in closet(s); One living area; One dining area; Decorative electric ventless fireplace in living room
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-484 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $334k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (33.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (33.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.3% in Dallas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#24 in TX, #1,380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Eladio R Martinez Learning Center (math 25% / reading 21%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 536 students, 97% FRL); D A Hulcy Steam Middle (math 33% / reading 32%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 423 students, 88% FRL); L G Pinkston H S (math 10% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 1,139 students, 92% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.2%/yr); 249 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,805/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 892% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$72k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($407k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $280,482 (33.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.94%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $419,633
• List price: $420,000
• Delta: 0.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4033 Hammerly Dr	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,128 (-8%)	2mo	$440,000	$207	69
4026 Weisenberger Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,228 (-3%)	18mo	$339,000	$152	64
3509 Harlingen St	0.57mi	4/3.5	2,195 (-5%)	3mo	$439,900	$200	59
4119 Palacios Ave	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,000 (-13%)	20mo	$439,000	$220	55
3930 Maybeth St	0.26mi	4/2.5	1,965 (-15%)	14mo	$424,000	$216	52
3609 Abilene St	0.48mi	4/2.0	2,089 (-9%)	13mo	$404,000	$193	49
3507 Harlingen St	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,231 (-3%)	18mo	$400,000	$179	48
3527 Harlingen	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,047 (-11%)	11mo	$123,000	$60	47
3613 Hammerly Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,001 (-13%)	21mo	$249,999	$125	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $189,589
• Equity at exit: $378,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.83×
• Total profit: $567,690
• Equity at exit: $815,968

Cash invested: $117,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75212

• Rents YoY: -4.2%
• Active inventory: 249
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,805 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax from tax record: −$323 /mo · $3,872/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $-484

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,418

Max offer price $334,428

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-247	-5% $-366	+0% $-484	+5% $-603	+10% $-722
Rent	-10% $-706	-5% $-595	+0% $-484	+5% $-374	+10% $-263
Rate	-1.0pp $-273	-0.5pp $-378	base $-484	+0.5pp $-593	+1.0pp $-704

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,000
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4120 Tram Dr Unit 1019501P Dallas, TX	5.0	2.5	2475	$7,484	$3.02	45d	1	0.72mi
4124 Tram Dr Dallas, TX	5.0	2.5	2478	$8,250	$3.33	24d	1	0.72mi
4128 Mart St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	1754	$2,800	$1.60	26d	1	0.85mi
2518 Kenesaw Dr Dallas, TX	4.0	3.0	1878	$2,600	$1.38	20d	1	1.38mi
3618 McBroom St Dallas, TX	5.0	2.5	2449	$8,700	$3.55	0d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $420,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $420,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $420,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $420,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $420,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $420,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $420,000 Active Option Contract 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $420,000 Active Option Contract 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   status $420,000 Active Option Contract 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $420,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $420,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $420,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $420,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $420,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $420,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    historical Active Option Contract 985-char remark
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $420,000 Active 985-char remark
18. 2026-05-04
    historical
19. 2026-04-14
    price $425,000
20. 2026-03-21
    status Active
21. 2026-03-18
    historical Active Option Contract
22. 2026-03-16
    price $429,999
23. 2026-03-04
    listed $439,999 Active
24. 2026-02-18
    historical $2,990
25. 2026-02-18
    historical
26. 2026-02-13
    price $439,999
27. 2026-02-01
    price $2,990
28. 2026-01-15
    status Active
29. 2026-01-08
    price $3,099
30. 2025-12-16
    listed $3,100
31. 2025-12-12
    listed $440,000 Active
32. 2025-11-20
    historical $3,100
33. 2025-11-19
    historical
34. 2025-11-08
    listed $3,100
35. 2025-10-01
    price $440,000
36. 2025-09-03
    price $450,000
37. 2025-07-25
    price $455,000
38. 2025-07-08
    listed $469,000 Active
39. 2024-06-27
    historical
40. 2024-03-12
    price $119,999
41. 2024-02-19
    listed $125,000 Active
42. 2023-10-23
    soldstatus
43. 2023-10-23
    soldstatus
44. 2023-10-23
    soldstatus
45. 2023-10-23
    soldstatus
46. 2023-09-12
    soldstatus Closed
47. 2023-08-22
    status Pending
48. 2023-08-11
    listed $90,000 Active
49. 2021-10-27
    soldstatus
50. 2020-06-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,872 · $323/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,686 · $640/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,814/yr (+$318/mo · 98.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,658
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,527
• − Property taxes: −$3,872
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,693
• − Management: −$2,693
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable loss: −$13,444
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,227
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,586/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,881
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6763
• State rank: #559 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dallas

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #1380

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dallas, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 1,168,437
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,259
• Household income: $59,750
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 892.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 26% Black 23% White 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 52% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 138.69%
• Current HPI: 477.2035
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.21%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+366.7% since first listed

38 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-06-07 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-20 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-05-18 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $420,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $425,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-21 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-18 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $429,999 NTREIS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $439,999 NTREIS
• 2026-02-18 Rental Removed $2,990 NTREIS
• 2026-02-18 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $439,999 NTREIS
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $2,990 NTREIS
• 2026-01-15 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $3,099 NTREIS
• 2025-12-16 Listed for Rent $3,100 NTREIS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $440,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-20 Rental Removed $3,100 NTREIS
• 2025-11-19 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-11-08 Listed for Rent $3,100 NTREIS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $440,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $450,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $455,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-08 Listed $469,000 NTREIS
• 2024-06-27 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-03-12 Price Changed $119,999 NTREIS
• 2024-02-19 Listed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2023-10-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-10-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-10-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-10-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-09-12 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-08-22 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-08-11 Listed $90,000 NTREIS
• 2021-10-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-06-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+17.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,872 · +73.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.