1256 NE Ball Park Ave · Dawson, GA 39842

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 2016 0.29 ac lot $121/sqft · 116% above area ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful 3-bedroom 2 bath home in Dawson, GA! Popular Terrell County! This is a newer home having been built in 2016! Open floor plan! Easy to care for LVP hardwood floors throughout much of the home! Excellent location and neighborhood! A fantastic buy!

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Built 2016
• Listed 128 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $302 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#508 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Terrell County (rural): math 7% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #167 of 174 in GA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2 units permitted in Terrell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Terrell County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.31%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $64,295
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: 116.19%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.56% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $25,668
• Equity at exit: $51,580

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $77,958
• Equity at exit: $71,859

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39842

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,481 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $972/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,099

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1239 Askew Dr NE Dawson, GA	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,500	$1.25	21d	1	0.07mi
1404 Georgia Ave SE Dawson, GA	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,235	$0.94	43d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,000 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 110 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,000 Active 109 DOM
18. 2026-03-11
    price $159,000 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Wonderful 3-bedroom 2 bath home in Dawson, GA! Popular Terrell County! This is a newer home having been built in 2016! Open floor plan! Easy to care for LVP hardwood floors throughout much of the home! Excellent location and neighborhood! A fantastic buy!

19. 2025-11-11
    listed $163,000 Active 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Wonderful 3-bedroom 2 bath home in Dawson, GA! Popular Terrell County! This is a newer home having been built in 2016! Open floor plan! Easy to care for LVP hardwood floors throughout much of the home! Excellent location and neighborhood! A fantastic buy!

20. 2023-10-03
    soldstatus $230,000
21. 2022-04-12
    status Active
22. 2022-03-04
    historical
23. 2022-02-26
    listed $250,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $972 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,279 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$306/yr (+$26/mo · 31.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$972
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,421
• − Management: −$1,421
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $1,428
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$343
• After-tax cash flow: $3,279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Terrell County
• NCES district ID: 1304860
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 13% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $31,887
• Composite: 7.87/100
• National rank: #9928
• State rank: #167 of 174 in GA

Livability — Dawson

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #508
• US rank: #23135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dawson, GA
• Population (ZIP): 7,780

Population outlook (Terrell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,041 people
• By 2030: 7,444 · -7.4%
• By 2040: 6,339 · -21.2%
• By 2050: 5,415 · -32.7%
• By 2075: 4,220 · -47.5%
• By 2100: 3,750 · -53.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 64% White 33% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Terrell

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.9% · R 47.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.7pp toward R · 2008: 13.8pp · 2024: 4.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.1 2020: D+8.4 2016: D+9.4 2012: D+16.1 2008: D+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.56%
• Current HPI: 190.252
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-36.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $159,000 SWGABOR
• 2025-11-11 Listed $163,000 SWGABOR
• 2023-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-12 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2022-03-04 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2022-02-26 Listed $250,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $972 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.