2621 Lynnwood Ave · Saginaw, MI 48601

$49,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1961 6,534 sqft lot Est $45k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• ARV discount +2.9/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lots of potential-Home has been used as a rental income property. Home features 3 Bedrooms and 1 Bath. Seller has a portfolio of homes in the area being sold. Quiet subdivision living at its finest! Call today for a private showing.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1961

Tags

• RENTAL INCOME PROPERTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $498 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.4% vs local median 7.8% in Saginaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $342 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 15 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $4k; list at $50k implies a 1000% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $45,045 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.09%
• DSCR: 2.92
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $44,928
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2411 Beechwood Ave	0.16mi	3/1.0	952 (+2%)	8mo	$40,000	$42	84
2701 Sheridan Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0	924 (-1%)	3mo	$74,272	$80	83
2928 Walters Dr	0.37mi	3/1.0	936 (0%)	7mo	$36,000	$38	77
3133 Glenwood Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	936 (0%)	6mo	$43,000	$46	72
3016 Fairview St	0.66mi	3/1.0	954 (+2%)	3mo	$22,000	$23	64
3221 Fulton St	0.59mi	3/1.5	972 (+4%)	1mo	$47,000	$48	63
3012 Walters Dr	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+8%)	7mo	$50,000	$50	63
2822 Kensington Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+8%)	2mo	$76,900	$76	59
2626 Hampshire St	0.60mi	3/1.0	975 (+4%)	8mo	$35,000	$36	58
3310 Lexington Dr	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,014 (+8%)	4mo	$67,000	$66	57
3015 Fairview St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,032 (+10%)	10mo	$70,000	$68	45
2221 Owen St	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	962 (+3%)	10mo	$12,500	$13	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $23,700
• Equity at exit: $7,381

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.44×
• Total profit: $61,541
• Equity at exit: $4,280

Cash invested: $13,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48601

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,072 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$260
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $829/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $498

Break-even live

Break-even rent $442

Max offer price $49,500

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $526	-5% $512	+0% $498	+5% $484	+10% $470
Rent	-10% $413	-5% $455	+0% $498	+5% $540	+10% $582
Rate	-1.0pp $523	-0.5pp $510	base $498	+0.5pp $485	+1.0pp $472

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,375
• Closing costs: $1,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3328 Webber St Saginaw, MI	3.0	1.0	878	$1,250	$1.42	45d	1	0.61mi
2554 Apollo Dr Unit AP2554 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$883	$0.92	45d	1	1.34mi
2564 Apollo Dr Unit AP2564 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$883	$0.92	45d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,500 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,500 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,500 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,500 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,500 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $49,500 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   status $49,500 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-03-13
   status Pending 232-char remark

   Show marketing remark (232 chars)

   Lots of potential-Home has been used as a rental income property. Home features 3 Bedrooms and 1 Bath. Seller has a portfolio of homes in the area being sold. Quiet subdivision living at its finest! Call today for a private showing.

9. 2026-03-13
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (232 chars)

   Lots of potential-Home has been used as a rental income property. Home features 3 Bedrooms and 1 Bath. Seller has a portfolio of homes in the area being sold. Quiet subdivision living at its finest! Call today for a private showing.

10. 2025-12-15
    listed $49,500 Active

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Lots of potential-Home has been used as a rental income property. Home features 3 Bedrooms and 1 Bath. Seller has a portfolio of homes in the area being sold. Quiet subdivision living at its finest! Call today for a private showing.

11. 2025-12-15
    listed $49,500 Active 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Lots of potential-Home has been used as a rental income property. Home features 3 Bedrooms and 1 Bath. Seller has a portfolio of homes in the area being sold. Quiet subdivision living at its finest! Call today for a private showing.

12. 2020-01-30
    historical
13. 2020-01-30
    historical
14. 2020-01-10
    listed $14,500 Active
15. 2020-01-10
    listed $14,500 Active
16. 2018-08-16
    soldstatus $4,500
17. 2018-08-16
    soldstatus $4,500 Closed
18. 2018-08-07
    status Pending
19. 2018-07-15
    listed $8,500
20. 2018-07-15
    listed $8,500 Active
21. 2018-06-19
    historical
22. 2018-06-19
    historical
23. 2018-06-16
    price $9,900
24. 2018-06-10
    price $11,500
25. 2018-05-30
    status Active
26. 2018-05-24
    status Pending
27. 2018-05-23
    price $13,000
28. 2018-05-14
    listed $9,900
29. 2018-05-14
    listed $14,900 Active
30. 2018-02-22
    soldstatus $6,000
31. 2018-02-22
    soldstatus $6,000 Closed
32. 2018-01-23
    status Pending
33. 2017-12-11
    listed $8,900
34. 2017-12-11
    listed $8,900 Active
35. 2016-12-23
    soldstatus $3,850
36. 2016-12-23
    soldstatus $3,850 Closed
37. 2016-11-29
    status Pending
38. 2016-11-25
    status Back on Market
39. 2016-10-28
    status Pending
40. 2016-10-27
    status Active
41. 2016-10-25
    status Pending
42. 2016-10-12
    listed $5,000 Active
43. 2016-10-05
    listed $5,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $829 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $829 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,773
• − Property taxes: −$829
• − Insurance: −$248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,029
• − Management: −$1,029
• − Depreciation: −$1,440
• Taxable income: $5,518
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,324
• After-tax cash flow: $4,648/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saginaw, MI
• City population: 54,884
• Population (ZIP): 32,069

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.46%
• Current HPI: 197.3359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+890.0% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-13 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-12-15 Listed $49,500 REALCOMP
• 2025-12-15 Listed $49,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-01-30 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2020-01-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-01-10 Listed $14,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-01-10 Listed $14,500 REALCOMP
• 2018-08-16 Sold (MLS) $4,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-08-16 Sold (MLS) $4,500 REALCOMP
• 2018-08-07 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-07-15 Listed $8,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-07-15 Listed $8,500 REALCOMP
• 2018-06-19 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-06-19 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2018-06-16 Price Changed $9,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-06-10 Price Changed $11,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-05-30 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-05-24 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-05-23 Price Changed $13,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-05-14 Listed $14,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-05-14 Listed $9,900 REALCOMP
• 2018-02-22 Sold (MLS) $6,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-02-22 Sold (MLS) $6,000 REALCOMP
• 2018-01-23 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-12-11 Listed $8,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-12-11 Listed $8,900 REALCOMP
• 2016-12-23 Sold (MLS) $3,850 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-12-23 Sold (MLS) $3,850 REALCOMP
• 2016-11-29 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-11-25 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-10-28 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-10-27 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-10-25 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-10-12 Listed $5,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-10-05 Listed $5,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $829 · -16.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.