326 Holly Ln · Van Buren, MI 48111

$40,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 74 Days on market

Built 1996 Average condition 3,600 sqft lot $29/sqft · 84% below area $650/mo HOA · 39% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice 3 bedroom home with 2 full baths. Home is very clean. This is a manufactured home on a rented lot in Belleville Manor mobile home park, 1996 Fleetwood Serial # INFLT55AB02433LP1.

Key facts

• 3,600 sq ft lot
• Built 1996
• Listed 74 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Van Buren Public Schools (suburban): math 33% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #228 of 540 in MI (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 39% of rent.

Recommended offer $37,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.88%
• DSCR: 2.82
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,530
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -83.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
142 Cherry lane E Cherry Lane Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+14%)	10mo	$38,900	$24	58
43948 Robson Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,400 (0%)	11mo	$190,000	$136	56
6 Ponderosa Trl S	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-14%)	13mo	$46,000	$38	56
7837 Mida Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,375 (-2%)	4mo	$275,000	$200	55
10560 Dewitt Rd	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,368 (-2%)	20mo	$234,900	$172	45
7836 Mida Dr	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,485 (+6%)	15mo	$263,000	$177	43
10351 Endicott St	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,584 (+13%)	11mo	$296,250	$187	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $19,314
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.85×
• Total profit: $54,290
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48111

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,656 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$650
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,173

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10341 Westlake Cir Belleville, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,820	$2.03	2d	10	0.62mi
46161 Village Green Ln Unit A344 Van Buren Township, MI	2.0	1.0	970	$1,299	$1.34	17d	1	1.35mi
10830 Oak Ln Belleville, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	820	$1,536	$1.87	2d	45	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $650 · $7,800/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $40,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $40,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $40,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-04-05
    listed $40,000 Active 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Very nice 3 bedroom home with 2 full baths. Home is very clean. This is a manufactured home on a rented lot in Belleville Manor mobile home park, 1996 Fleetwood Serial # INFLT55AB02433LP1.

15. 2026-04-05
    listed $40,000 Active 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Very nice 3 bedroom home with 2 full baths. Home is very clean. This is a manufactured home on a rented lot in Belleville Manor mobile home park, 1996 Fleetwood Serial # INFLT55AB02433LP1.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,867
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,589
• − Management: −$1,589
• − HOA: −$7,800
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $4,684
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,124
• After-tax cash flow: $3,454/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

This 3-bedroom home in a mobile home park has average condition with some light wear. It could benefit from painting, landscaping, and flooring updates to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Paint appears faded and could be refreshed
• Minor Siding — Light wear on siding

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint — Refreshing the paint can improve both resale and rental value
• Both Landscaping — Aesthetic improvements can enhance curb appeal and value
• Both Flooring — Updating the flooring can improve both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Paint appears faded and could be refreshed	Minor	$500–3,000
Siding · Light wear on siding	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint — Refreshing the paint can improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Aesthetic improvements can enhance curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Flooring — Updating the flooring can improve both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van Buren Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2634560
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 33.2/100
• National rank: #5533
• State rank: #228 of 540 in MI

Livability — Van Buren

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 44,709
• Household income: $76,595
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1200.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 22% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -238.11%
• Current HPI: 236.4458
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.64%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-05 Listed $40,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-05 Listed $40,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS