103 Mabry Pl · Garner, NC 27529

$223,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,987 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1975 0.30 ac lot Est $391k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bath home offers nearly 2,000 square feet of living space on a . 30-acre lot in an established neighborhood with no HOA. The flexible floor plan features multiple living areas, including a finished basement with exterior access, a bedroom, full bath, and large den ideal for guests, multi-generational living, a home office, or bonus space. The main level offers comfortable everyday living with generous room sizes and abundant natural light. Enjoy the privacy of a mature lot while remaining just minutes from shopping, dining, parks, Downtown Garner, and major commuter routes. A rare opportunity to own a home with space, versatility, and convenience in a sought-after

Key facts

• Exterior access
• Mature lot
• Finished basement

Tags

• FINISHED BASEMENT
• EXTERIOR ACCESS
• MATURE LOT
• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• NO HOA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.3 acres
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Community sewer
• Home design: One-story house; No common walls; Fixer condition; R4 zoning
• Construction: HardiPlank-type exterior; Tile roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built with a total finished area including below-grade space
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms total; Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished, heated basement; Washer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $223k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $304 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $223k).
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.3% in Garner — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#35 in NC, #3,421 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A-, cost of living A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 652 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $223k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.84%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $391,439
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1503 Buckingham Rd	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,061 (+4%)	20mo	$406,700	$197	68
602 Kimberwood Ct	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,854 (-7%)	0mo	$400,000	$216	54
217 Shady Hollow Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,920 (-3%)	6mo	$535,000	$279	53
1107 Flanders St	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,060 (+4%)	22mo	$395,000	$192	53
1005 Buckingham Rd	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,027 (+2%)	23mo	$400,000	$197	51
1106 Brucemont Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,129 (+7%)	10mo	$395,000	$186	47
1404 Kenbrook Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	1,847 (-7%)	24mo	$420,000	$227	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-20,954
• Equity at exit: $33,250

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-9,829
• Equity at exit: $19,281

Cash invested: $62,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27529

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 652
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,292 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,169
• Tax from tax record: −$245 /mo · $2,935/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $304

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,908

Max offer price $223,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $430	-5% $367	+0% $304	+5% $241	+10% $178
Rent	-10% $123	-5% $213	+0% $304	+5% $394	+10% $485
Rate	-1.0pp $416	-0.5pp $361	base $304	+0.5pp $246	+1.0pp $187

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,750
• Closing costs: $6,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1425 Aversboro Rd Garner, NC	2.0–3.0	2.0	1262	$1,900	$1.51	15d	2	0.79mi
725 Heather Park Dr Garner, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1012	$1,560	$1.54	2d	14	0.92mi
203 Southerby Bluffs Ct Garner, NC	3.0	2.5	2071	$2,250	$1.09	24d	1	0.93mi
166 Gulley Glen Dr Garner, NC	4.0	3.5	2263	$2,200	$0.97	24d	1	0.96mi
205 November St Garner, NC	3.0	2.0	1695	$1,995	$1.18	24d	1	1.10mi
1517 Wiljohn Rd Garner, NC	3.0	2.0	1688	$3,000	$1.78	24d	1	1.31mi
415 Aversboro Rd Garner, NC	4.0	2.5	1728	$1,950	$1.13	24d	1	1.48mi
400 Evolve Dr Garner, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,964	$1.98	2d	19	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-13
   listed $223,000 Pending 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,935 · $245/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,935 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,507
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,491
• − Property taxes: −$2,935
• − Insurance: −$1,115
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,201
• − Management: −$2,201
• − Depreciation: −$6,487
• Taxable income: $77
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$19
• After-tax cash flow: $3,629/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wake County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704720
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,509
• Composite: 49.41/100
• National rank: #2010
• State rank: #35 of 178 in NC

Livability — Garner

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #35
• US rank: #3421

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A- Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Garner, NC
• County: Wake County · 1,216,256 people
• City population: 55,242
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 55,242
• Household income: $85,716
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1455.0

Population outlook (Wake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,293,152 people
• By 2030: 1,428,223 · +10.4%
• By 2040: 1,698,188 · +31.3%
• By 2050: 1,955,807 · +51.2%
• By 2075: 2,520,273 · +94.9%
• By 2100: 2,893,335 · +123.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wake

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.5) · D 61.9% · R 36.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.1pp toward D · 2008: 14.4pp · 2024: 25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.5 2020: D+26.4 2016: D+20.5 2012: D+10.2 2008: D+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -241.30%
• Current HPI: 238.8492
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.15%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+85.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-06-09 Listed $223,000 TMLS
• 1995-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,935 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.