15907 Penina Ct · Houston, TX 77532

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,813 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2008 0.35 ac lot Est $257k · 22% under $65/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac
• Newport community
• Golf course

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• GOLF COURSE
• NEWPORT COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of NEWPORT HOA with a $65 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2008; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Located on a cul-de-sac; On golf course lot; Within a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 17 x 17); Two additional first-floor bedrooms (approx. 12 x 12 and 12 x 13)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-440/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (3.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (3.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,420 (3.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.79%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $257,446
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15907 Penina Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,813 (0%)	1mo	$199,900	$110	99
1723 Penina Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,803 (-1%)	13mo	$350,000	$194	85
1511 Tournament Ct	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,900 (+5%)	3mo	$270,000	$142	76
2006 Halyard Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,824 (+1%)	10mo	$234,900	$129	71
1823 Penina Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,945 (+7%)	14mo	$264,900	$136	70
16310 Yarnarm Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,749 (-4%)	3mo	$298,500	$171	62
1806 Littler Ct	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,011 (+11%)	7mo	$299,000	$149	60
2027 Foxtail Creek Ct	0.35mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,875 (+3%)	14mo	$249,900	$133	60
15914 Challenger Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,912 (+6%)	14mo	$240,000	$126	59
1727 Sahara Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (-14%)	12mo	$234,900	$150	53
16114 Fairway Creek Cir	0.54mi	3/2.0	2,022 (+12%)	7mo	$260,000	$129	50
15931 Boom Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,936 (+7%)	3mo	$319,900	$165	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-37,747
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-47,871
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,179 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$562 /mo · $6,741/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,226

Max offer price $193,420

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $76	-5% $20	+0% $-37	+5% $-93	+10% $-150
Rent	-10% $-209	-5% $-123	+0% $-37	+5% $49	+10% $135
Rate	-1.0pp $64	-0.5pp $14	base $-37	+0.5pp $-88	+1.0pp $-141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16318 River Wood Ct Crosby, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,946	$1.16	3d	1	0.69mi
15806 Afore Dr Crosby, TX	4.0	2.0	2372	$1,951	$0.82	17d	1	0.76mi
1310 Stem Way Dr Crosby, TX	4.0	2.0	2346	$2,700	$1.15	4d	1	0.92mi
16807 Lisbon Ln Crosby, TX	3.0	2.5	2196	$1,910	$0.87	45d	1	1.12mi
15722 E Astern Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1996	$1,896	$0.95	14d	1	1.18mi
711 Equinox St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$1,881	$1.04	45d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-22
   listed $199,900 Active
4. 2024-06-11
   historical
5. 2024-03-07
   status Active
6. 2024-03-06
   status Pending
7. 2024-02-25
   status Option Pending
8. 2024-01-17
   listed $268,500 Active
9. 2024-01-03
   historical
10. 2023-08-11
    price $269,000
11. 2023-07-19
    listed $279,000 Active
12. 2022-08-10
    soldstatus
13. 2022-08-04
    historical
14. 2022-07-22
    listed $279,000 Active
15. 2021-03-12
    soldstatus
16. 2021-03-11
    soldstatus Sold
17. 2021-02-22
    status Pending
18. 2021-02-16
    status Option Pending
19. 2021-02-14
    status Active
20. 2021-02-13
    historical
21. 2020-12-15
    price $242,400
22. 2020-11-14
    price $244,900
23. 2020-08-13
    listed $249,900 Active
24. 2012-09-28
    soldstatus
25. 2012-09-19
    soldstatus
26. 2012-08-15
    historical
27. 2012-07-17
    listed $144,900
28. 2009-03-01
    historical
29. 2008-05-19
    listed $195,000
30. 2000-06-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,741 · $562/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,741 · $562/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,151
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$6,741
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,092
• − Management: −$2,092
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,566
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$856
• After-tax cash flow: $416/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.5% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2024-06-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-03-07 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-03-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-02-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-01-17 Listed $268,500 HARMLS
• 2024-01-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-08-11 Price Changed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2023-07-19 Listed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-08-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-07-22 Listed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2021-03-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-03-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-02-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-02-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-02-14 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-02-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-12-15 Price Changed $242,400 HARMLS
• 2020-11-14 Price Changed $244,900 HARMLS
• 2020-08-13 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2012-09-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-09-19 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-08-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-07-17 Listed $144,900 HARMLS
• 2009-03-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-05-19 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2000-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,741 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.