438 Stell Rd · Bath, NC 27808

$290,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,674 sqft · Manufactured public records · 310 Days on market

Built 2006 1.01 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOTIVATED SELLER: Bring an offer. Sellers now offering a $5000 flooring allowance! Charming 3-Bedroom Home Near Bath Creek - Peaceful Living in Historic Bath, NC Welcome to this well established 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-family home nestled in a serene setting just minutes from beautiful Bath Creek. Built in 2006 and offering 1,674 sq ft of comfortable living space (per tax card), this home blends modern convenience with peaceful, small-town charm. Step inside to a spacious floor plan that's perfect for everyday living or entertaining. No flood zone and a newer roof are great bonuses to this home. The primary suite offers privacy and comfort with its own full bath Located in a quiet,

Key facts

• Newer roof
• 1.01 acre lot
• Built 2006

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• QUIET ESTABLISHED AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Property subtype: Single Family Residence; Lot approximately 1.01 acres; Road frontage on city street and state road; Zoning: R

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Off-street parking; On-site parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Water connected; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story (entry level 1)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; See remarks for additional construction details; Shingle roof; Brick/mortar permanent foundation; Built on a permanent foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Storm door(s); Back yard fencing; Level lot; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Master downstairs
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Accessible full bath
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Master bedroom on the main level; Walk-in closet(s); Ceiling fan(s); Window coverings; Insulated windows; Gas log fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Separate laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $411 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (3.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 1.8% in Bath — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#287 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, housing B; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Beaufort County Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #112 of 178 in NC (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bath Elementary (math 58% / reading 55%, grade C+, #280 of 1,410 statewide, top 20%, 528 students, 99% FRL); Northside High (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C-, #280 of 535 statewide, top 52%, 376 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 67% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Beaufort County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 216 units permitted in Beaufort County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Beaufort County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 310 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $290k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 310 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.07%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-20,927
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $15,113
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27808

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,918/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $411

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,280

Max offer price $290,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $575	-5% $493	+0% $411	+5% $328	+10% $246
Rent	-10% $189	-5% $300	+0% $411	+5% $521	+10% $632
Rate	-1.0pp $557	-0.5pp $484	base $411	+0.5pp $335	+1.0pp $259

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
841 Treasure Point Rd Bath, NC	4.0	2.0	1860	$2,800	$1.51	14d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $290,000 Active 310 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,000 Active 309 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,000 Active 308 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,000 Active 307 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,000 Active 306 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $290,000 Active 304 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active 303 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $290,000 Active 301 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,000 Active 300 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $290,000 Active 299 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $290,000 Active 298 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,000 Active 294 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,000 Active 293 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,000 Active 292 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,000 Active 291 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $290,000 Active 290 DOM
17. 2025-10-14
    price $290,000
18. 2025-08-13
    listed $300,000 Active
19. 2006-07-26
    soldstatus $155,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,918 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,378 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$460/yr (+$38/mo · 24.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$1,918
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,688
• − Management: −$2,688
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable income: $175
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$42
• After-tax cash flow: $4,885/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beaufort County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700330
• Math proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,486
• Composite: 33.99/100
• National rank: #5320
• State rank: #112 of 178 in NC

Livability — Bath

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #287
• US rank: #12274

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment C+ Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,976

Population outlook (Beaufort County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,069 people
• By 2030: 46,417 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 44,455 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 42,239 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 37,349 · -20.7%
• By 2100: 32,434 · -31.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Beaufort

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.1% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.7pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.3 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.63%
• Current HPI: 214.0355
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+87.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $290,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-08-13 Listed $300,000 Hive MLS
• 2006-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,918 · +59.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.