908 Bells Chapel Cir · Pecan Hill, TX 75165

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1997 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer upper way below market value double wide manufactured home on a half acre lot.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 1997
• Listed 7 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: County: Ellis; Country: United States
• Financial info: No second mortgage; Listing treated as clear
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: No designated covered or carport spaces; No parking features listed
• Utilities: Co-op water; Septic; Property inside a municipal utility district
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story (one level); Not attached to another property
• Construction: Built in 1997
• Exterior features: Half-acre lot (approximately 0.5 acre); Subdivision: Belles Chapel Mobile Home Estate; Directions: From Bells Chapel head north on Bells Chapel Circle

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; One living area; Total room count: 4
• Laundry & utility: Septic service

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $789 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#827 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Red Oak ISD (suburban): math 40% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #384 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Red Oak El (math 42% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 528 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 42% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 854 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.21%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $31,782
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $96,296
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75165

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 854
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,141 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,678/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $789

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,142

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 84-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $119,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,678 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,678 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$2,678
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,055
• − Management: −$2,055
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $8,097
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,943
• After-tax cash flow: $7,528/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Oak ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836660
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $71,110
• Composite: 34.88/100
• National rank: #5084
• State rank: #384 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pecan Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #827
• US rank: #14938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ellis County · 199,237 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,513
• Household income: $86,391
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1365.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 14% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.58%
• Current HPI: 255.0247
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.40%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $119,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-05-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-08-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1985-09-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,678 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.