1377 Lawrenceville Plank Rd · Lawrenceville, VA 23868

$45,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily · 22 Days on market

Built 1960 1.73 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits at 1377 Lawrenceville Plank Rd! This investment property sits on a combined 1.73 acres across 3 parcels and offers plenty of potential for the right buyer. Property is connected to public water and is ready for a complete renovation or redevelopment project. Home is in need of major repairs and is being sold as-is. * * * Hold harmless form * * * must be signed prior to all showings. Bring your vision and turn this property back into something special!

Key facts

• 1.73 acre lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 22 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: One-level residence; Residential / Vacation property
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Has view; Accessible entrance; Customized wheelchair accessible

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 4
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Other interior details; Fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $46k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $761 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $46k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#258 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Brunswick County Public School District (rural): math 24% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #130 of 131 in VA (top 99%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Brunswick High (math 22% / reading 67%, grade F, #310 of 319 statewide, top 98%, 426 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 73% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 37 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($315 loan paydown + $893 appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Brunswick County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $46k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,817 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.64%
• DSCR: 4.19
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 75.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.04×
• Total profit: $51,470
• Equity at exit: $17,858

10-year hold

• IRR: 75.6%
• Equity multiple: 10.30×
• Total profit: $118,511
• Equity at exit: $25,647

Cash invested: $12,740 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23868

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,304 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$239
• Tax from tax record: −$12 /mo · $142/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $761

Break-even live

Break-even rent $341

Max offer price $45,500

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $786	-5% $773	+0% $761	+5% $748	+10% $735
Rent	-10% $658	-5% $709	+0% $761	+5% $812	+10% $864
Rate	-1.0pp $784	-0.5pp $772	base $761	+0.5pp $749	+1.0pp $737

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,375
• Closing costs: $1,365
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $45,500 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,500 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,500 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,500 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,500 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,500 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,500 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,500 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $45,500 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $45,500 Pending 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,500 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,500 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-05-23
    listed $45,500 Active
14. 2020-07-30
    historical
15. 2019-08-01
    listed $45,000
16. 2019-07-31
    historical
17. 2019-01-14
    listed $46,000
18. 2019-01-10
    historical
19. 2018-06-27
    listed $47,605
20. 2013-05-23
    soldstatus $26,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $142 · $12/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $373 · $31/mo
• Expected delta: +$231/yr (+$19/mo · 162.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,549
• − Property taxes: −$142
• − Insurance: −$228
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,252
• − Management: −$1,252
• − Depreciation: −$1,324
• Taxable income: $8,900
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,136
• After-tax cash flow: $6,991/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100480
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -44.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $37,085
• Composite: 29.44/100
• National rank: #6520
• State rank: #130 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lawrenceville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #9024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,215

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,860 people
• By 2030: 13,946 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 12,029 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 10,370 · -30.2%
• By 2075: 7,708 · -48.1%
• By 2100: 5,718 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 67% White 27% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.5) · D 54.1% · R 45.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: 26.5pp · 2024: 8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.5 2020: D+15.0 2016: D+18.7 2012: D+25.3 2008: D+26.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.96%
• Current HPI: 98.6309
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+73.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $45,500 RVLG
• 2020-07-30 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2019-08-01 Listed $45,000 CVRMLS
• 2019-07-31 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2019-01-14 Listed $46,000 CVRMLS
• 2019-01-10 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2018-06-27 Listed $47,605 CVRMLS
• 2013-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $26,200 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $142 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.