38 Willow Rd · Silver Springs Shores, FL 34472

$279,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,486 sqft · Land · 105 Days on market

Built 2025 10,019 sqft lot $188/sqft · 14% above area Est $246k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.4/15.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath single-family home located in the desirable Silver Springs Shores area of Ocala. Situated on a spacious lot just under a quarter acre, this home offers comfort, functionality, and plenty of potential. Inside, you’ll find a bright open floor plan with luxury vinyl flooring and ceiling fans throughout the main living areas. The kitchen features beautiful granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, including a convection oven, microwave, dishwasher, and refrigerator—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary bedroom includes a walk-in closet, and the home is equipped with central A/C and heat for year-round comfort. outside to enjoy a spacious lanai, ideal for pets, outdoor activities, or relaxing in your own private space. With solid block construction, a two-car garage, and a convenient location near shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, this property presents a wonderful opportunity for homeowners or investors alike. Don’t miss your chance to make this Ocala home yours!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Walk-in closet
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• SOLID BLOCK CONSTRUCTION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-568 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (29.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (38.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (38.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#527 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D, schools F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 674 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $280k implies a 775% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,955 (38.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.70%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,279
• List price: $279,900
• Delta: 13.65%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.93% appreciation · 0.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $38,755
• Equity at exit: $174,765

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $134,011
• Equity at exit: $315,904

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34472

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,730 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,198/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-568

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $197,712

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9 Pine Course Radl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,725	$1.19	14d	1	0.14mi
139 Pine Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,645	$1.18	14d	1	0.15mi
3 Pine Circle Pass Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1674	$1,700	$1.02	21d	1	0.31mi
2 Dogwood Drive Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1608	$2,099	$1.31	21d	1	0.40mi
66 Laurel Pass Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	974	$1,175	$1.21	21d	1	0.55mi
58 Laurel Pass Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	21d	1	0.56mi
54 Laurel Pass Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	21d	1	0.56mi
88 Dogwood Drive Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1659	$1,600	$0.96	21d	1	0.62mi
57 Pine Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,897	$1.49	14d	1	0.62mi
6 Cedar Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1477	$1,675	$1.13	21d	1	0.65mi
43 Water Track Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,799	$1.40	14d	1	0.67mi
21 Dogwood Drive Pass Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1390	$1,595	$1.15	21d	1	0.72mi
28 Poplar Run Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,650	$1.12	14d	1	0.75mi
7 Pine Run Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,500	$1.05	14d	1	0.78mi
60 Walnut Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	969	$1,200	$1.24	21d	1	0.80mi
52 Walnut Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	969	$1,175	$1.21	14d	1	0.80mi
11 Aspen Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,725	$1.27	21d	1	0.81mi
31 Walnut Run Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	974	$1,200	$1.23	14d	1	0.83mi
47 Walnut Run Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	974	$1,235	$1.27	14d	1	0.84mi
98 Dogwood Drive Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,695	$1.27	21d	1	0.84mi
23 Aspen Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,650	$1.18	21d	1	0.89mi
50 Walnut Run Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,795	$1.39	14d	1	0.89mi
9 Dogwood Trail Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1110	$1,595	$1.44	21d	1	1.11mi
7 Juniper Pass Way Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,750	$1.20	21d	1	1.18mi
5 Cedar Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,750	$1.64	21d	1	1.21mi
7215 Midway Ter Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	975	$1,175	$1.21	21d	1	1.24mi
9649 Bahia Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,595	$1.24	21d	1	1.25mi
123 Juniper Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,695	$1.17	21d	1	1.28mi
10 Juniper Trl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,875	$1.16	14d	1	1.31mi
13 Pine Radial Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,795	$1.24	21d	1	1.31mi
7455 Midway Ter Unit K Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	904	$1,249	$1.38	21d	1	1.32mi
338 Larch Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,595	$1.14	21d	1	1.35mi
15 Juniper Pass Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1608	$1,900	$1.18	14d	1	1.40mi
57 Juniper Pass Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	974	$1,200	$1.23	14d	1	1.42mi
7044 Hemlock Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,897	$1.49	14d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,900 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,900 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,900 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,900 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $279,900 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-03-05
    price $279,900 1077-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1077 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath single-family home located in the desirable Silver Springs Shores area of Ocala. Situated on a spacious lot just under a quarter acre, this home offers comfort, functionality, and plenty of potential. Inside, you’ll find a bright open floor plan with luxury vinyl flooring and ceiling fans throughout the main living areas. The kitchen features beautiful granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, including a convection oven, microwave, dishwasher, and refrigerator—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary bedroom includes a walk-in closet, and the home is equipped with central A/C and heat for year-round comfort. outside to enjoy a spacious lanai, ideal for pets, outdoor activities, or relaxing in your own private space. With solid block construction, a two-car garage, and a convenient location near shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, this property presents a wonderful opportunity for homeowners or investors alike. Don’t miss your chance to make this Ocala home yours!

17. 2026-03-05
    listed $289,900 Active 1077-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1077 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath single-family home located in the desirable Silver Springs Shores area of Ocala. Situated on a spacious lot just under a quarter acre, this home offers comfort, functionality, and plenty of potential. Inside, you’ll find a bright open floor plan with luxury vinyl flooring and ceiling fans throughout the main living areas. The kitchen features beautiful granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, including a convection oven, microwave, dishwasher, and refrigerator—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary bedroom includes a walk-in closet, and the home is equipped with central A/C and heat for year-round comfort. outside to enjoy a spacious lanai, ideal for pets, outdoor activities, or relaxing in your own private space. With solid block construction, a two-car garage, and a convenient location near shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, this property presents a wonderful opportunity for homeowners or investors alike. Don’t miss your chance to make this Ocala home yours!

18. 2006-04-03
    soldstatus $32,000
19. 2005-07-21
    soldstatus $15,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,755
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$4,198
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,660
• − Management: −$1,660
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$11,985
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,877
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,939/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs Shores

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #527
• US rank: #9854

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silver Springs Shores, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 34,665
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,851
• Household income: $64,208
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.93%
• Current HPI: 255.0714
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1682.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Listed $289,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 2005-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $15,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $528 · +24.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.