2826 Willow Wood Cir · Valdosta, GA 31602

$229,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,875 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1988 0.25 ac lot $122/sqft · 12% below area Est $259k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 2826 Willow Wood Circle! Located in the heart of Valdosta city limits, this well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers 1,875 square feet of comfortable living space. Step inside to a spacious and inviting layout featuring generous living areas and plenty of natural light. The home also includes a versatile enclosed sunroom, perfect for a home gym, office, or bonus space, complete with its own window unit for year-round comfort. The second bathroom has been beautifully updated with a tile walk-in shower, adding a modern and stylish touch for guests or family use. Major upgrades provide peace of mind, including a new roof (2025) and new HVAC system (July 2024). The home is also termite bonded, offering added protection and reassurance for buyers. Step outside and enjoy the well-maintained landscaping, supported by a sprinkler system that helps keep the yard looking its best year-round. Conveniently located within the city limits, you'll be just minutes from shopping, dining, schools, and everything Valdosta has to offer. Move-in ready with key updates already done—don't miss your chance to own this beautiful home. Call today to schedule your private tour!

Key facts

• Enclosed sunroom
• Tile walk-in shower
• Termite bonded

Tags

• ENCLOSED SUNROOM
• TILE WALK-IN SHOWER
• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• TERMITE BONDED
• WELL-MAINTAINED LANDSCAPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-125 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.3% in Valdosta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#392 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Valdosta City (urban): math 15% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #149 of 174 in GA (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sallas Mahone Elementary (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #845 of 1,228 statewide, top 69%, 1,078 students, 90% FRL); Valdosta Middle School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #301 of 470 statewide, top 66%, 1,060 students, 95% FRL); Valdosta High School (math 7% / reading 24%, grade F, #290 of 424 statewide, top 69%, 2,381 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 74% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 278 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $229k implies a 146% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,456 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.34%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,028
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -11.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2826 Willow Wood Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,875 (0%)	0mo	$211,500	$113	100
2811 Bud Mckey Cir	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,998 (+7%)	1mo	$319,000	$160	84
409 Georgetown Cir	0.29mi	3/3.0	1,872 (-0%)	3mo	$272,000	$145	80
800 Tanglewood Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,763 (-6%)	1mo	$220,000	$125	80
2904 Northfield Rd	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,933 (+3%)	2mo	$299,000	$155	76
3122 Huntington Ridge Cir	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,915 (+2%)	7mo	$275,000	$144	70
327 Betty Jo Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,926 (+3%)	3mo	$240,000	$125	69
2826 Bud Mckey Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0	2,124 (+13%)	6mo	$295,000	$139	67
2801 Walmar Pl	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,691 (-10%)	7mo	$137,500	$81	61
506 Gornto Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,710 (-9%)	1mo	$170,000	$99	60
2919 Thea Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,764 (-6%)	8mo	$242,900	$138	57
2325 White Oak Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,948 (+4%)	8mo	$230,000	$118	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-43,054
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-39,242
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31602

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,705 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,105/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $-125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,863

Max offer price $206,897

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5	-5% $-60	+0% $-125	+5% $-190	+10% $-255
Rent	-10% $-260	-5% $-192	+0% $-125	+5% $-58	+10% $10
Rate	-1.0pp $-10	-0.5pp $-67	base $-125	+0.5pp $-184	+1.0pp $-245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2878 Fawnwood Cir Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	45d	1	0.18mi
312 Eager Rd Valdosta, GA	3.0	3.0	1959	$1,895	$0.97	45d	1	0.29mi
2502 Berkley Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,650	$1.11	22d	1	0.38mi
302 Hartsfield Ln Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1975	$1,775	$0.90	45d	1	0.42mi
407 Northfield Rd Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1505	$1,395	$0.93	22d	1	0.42mi
2515 Churchill Dr Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	2140	$1,550	$0.72	45d	1	0.57mi
702 Pineridge Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1736	$1,650	$0.95	45d	1	0.71mi
2208 White Oak Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	2194	$1,975	$0.90	45d	1	0.89mi
210 W Cranford Ave Valdosta, GA	3.0	3.0	2000	$1,650	$0.82	45d	1	0.90mi
210 W Cranford Ave Valdosta, GA	3.0	3.0	2000	$1,650	$0.82	22d	1	0.90mi
1202 Kimberly Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	1989	$1,600	$0.80	45d	1	0.95mi
1903 Azalea Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	2128	$2,500	$1.17	45d	1	0.99mi
360 Brookfield Rd Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	1278	$1,100	$0.86	45d	1	1.01mi
3261 Jordan Way Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1985	$2,100	$1.06	45d	1	1.04mi
420 Connell Rd Valdosta, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1051	$1,375	$1.31	22d	8	1.04mi
1612 Garland Pl Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,295	$1.02	45d	1	1.23mi
611 Pineview Dr Valdosta, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1204	$1,600	$1.33	22d	3	1.26mi
1018 Cherokee St Valdosta, GA	3.0	1.5	1225	$1,375	$1.12	22d	1	1.31mi
1213 McRee Dr Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1588	$1,895	$1.19	45d	1	1.38mi
1400 Baytree Dr Valdosta, GA	2.0–4.0	2.0–4.0	1277	$614	$0.48	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 1195-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1195 chars)

   Welcome to 2826 Willow Wood Circle! Located in the heart of Valdosta city limits, this well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers 1,875 square feet of comfortable living space. Step inside to a spacious and inviting layout featuring generous living areas and plenty of natural light. The home also includes a versatile enclosed sunroom, perfect for a home gym, office, or bonus space, complete with its own window unit for year-round comfort. The second bathroom has been beautifully updated with a tile walk-in shower, adding a modern and stylish touch for guests or family use. Major upgrades provide peace of mind, including a new roof (2025) and new HVAC system (July 2024). The home is also termite bonded, offering added protection and reassurance for buyers. Step outside and enjoy the well-maintained landscaping, supported by a sprinkler system that helps keep the yard looking its best year-round. Conveniently located within the city limits, you'll be just minutes from shopping, dining, schools, and everything Valdosta has to offer. Move-in ready with key updates already done—don't miss your chance to own this beautiful home. Call today to schedule your private tour!

2. 2026-04-29
   price $229,000 1195-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1195 chars)

   Welcome to 2826 Willow Wood Circle! Located in the heart of Valdosta city limits, this well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers 1,875 square feet of comfortable living space. Step inside to a spacious and inviting layout featuring generous living areas and plenty of natural light. The home also includes a versatile enclosed sunroom, perfect for a home gym, office, or bonus space, complete with its own window unit for year-round comfort. The second bathroom has been beautifully updated with a tile walk-in shower, adding a modern and stylish touch for guests or family use. Major upgrades provide peace of mind, including a new roof (2025) and new HVAC system (July 2024). The home is also termite bonded, offering added protection and reassurance for buyers. Step outside and enjoy the well-maintained landscaping, supported by a sprinkler system that helps keep the yard looking its best year-round. Conveniently located within the city limits, you'll be just minutes from shopping, dining, schools, and everything Valdosta has to offer. Move-in ready with key updates already done—don't miss your chance to own this beautiful home. Call today to schedule your private tour!

3. 2026-04-14
   listed $239,000 Active 1195-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1195 chars)

   Welcome to 2826 Willow Wood Circle! Located in the heart of Valdosta city limits, this well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers 1,875 square feet of comfortable living space. Step inside to a spacious and inviting layout featuring generous living areas and plenty of natural light. The home also includes a versatile enclosed sunroom, perfect for a home gym, office, or bonus space, complete with its own window unit for year-round comfort. The second bathroom has been beautifully updated with a tile walk-in shower, adding a modern and stylish touch for guests or family use. Major upgrades provide peace of mind, including a new roof (2025) and new HVAC system (July 2024). The home is also termite bonded, offering added protection and reassurance for buyers. Step outside and enjoy the well-maintained landscaping, supported by a sprinkler system that helps keep the yard looking its best year-round. Conveniently located within the city limits, you'll be just minutes from shopping, dining, schools, and everything Valdosta has to offer. Move-in ready with key updates already done—don't miss your chance to own this beautiful home. Call today to schedule your private tour!

4. 1995-01-17
   soldstatus $93,000
5. 1988-04-27
   soldstatus $80,800
6. 1987-09-25
   soldstatus $37,000
7. 1986-03-25
   soldstatus $170,000
8. 1986-03-25
   soldstatus $179,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,105 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,107 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: +$2/yr ($0/mo · 0.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$2,105
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,636
• − Management: −$1,636
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$5,557
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,334
• After-tax cash flow: $-168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valdosta City
• NCES district ID: 1305310
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $30,634
• Composite: 14.79/100
• National rank: #9388
• State rank: #149 of 174 in GA

Livability — Valdosta

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #19544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valdosta, GA
• County: Lowndes County · 107,801 people
• City population: 91,859
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 35,728
• Household income: $56,939
• Rent vs Own: 56.4% rent · 43.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2034.0

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 42% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.60%
• Current HPI: 188.2012
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.19%
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+34.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — SGMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $229,000 SGMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $239,000 SGMLS
• 1995-01-17 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records
• 1988-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $80,800 Public Records
• 1987-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records
• 1986-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $179,900 Public Records
• 1986-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,105 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.