464 Lou Gray Dr · Tri-City, OR 97457

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 668 sqft · Other public records · 136 Days on market

Built 1956 0.37 ac lot $187/sqft · 13% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great piece of property with a lot of potential. Homesite surrounded by mature trees. Easy access to I-5 and surrounding businesses like 7 Feather Resort and Casino. Great proximity for fishing and outdoor sports.

Key facts

• Outdoor sports
• Easy access to i-5
• Near great fishing

Tags

• EASY ACCESS TO I-5
• NEAR GREAT FISHING
• OUTDOOR SPORTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.3% in Tri-City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• South Umpqua SD 19 (town): math 21% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #51 of 58 in OR (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.73%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,591
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -56.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-9,677
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $5,036
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97457

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,151 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $414/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $939

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $238	-5% $202	+0% $167	+5% $132	+10% $96
Rent	-10% $76	-5% $122	+0% $167	+5% $212	+10% $258
Rate	-1.0pp $230	-0.5pp $199	base $167	+0.5pp $135	+1.0pp $102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 114 DOM
17. 2026-02-05
    listed $125,000 Active 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    Great piece of property with a lot of potential. Homesite surrounded by mature trees. Easy access to I-5 and surrounding businesses like 7 Feather Resort and Casino. Great proximity for fishing and outdoor sports.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $414 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,212 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$798/yr (+$67/mo · 192.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,809
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$414
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,105
• − Management: −$1,105
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$78
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$19
• After-tax cash flow: $2,023/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Umpqua SD 19
• NCES district ID: 4111610
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $38,796
• Composite: 23.01/100
• National rank: #7976
• State rank: #51 of 58 in OR

Livability — Tri-City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,158

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,191 people
• By 2030: 102,664 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 96,668 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 91,279 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 79,395 · -24.5%
• By 2100: 66,107 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.7) · D 29.9% · R 67.6% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -20.1pp · 2024: -37.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.7 2020: R+37.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.88%
• Current HPI: 348.9631
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Listed $125,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $414 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.