2953 7th Street Rd · Louisville, KY 40216

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 844 sqft · SingleFamily · 174 Days on market

Built 1943 5,663 sqft lot Est $139k · 35% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Land use Single Family Residential also Zoning C1- Commercial

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• Built 1943
• Listed 174 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $285 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, crime F.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jacob Elementary (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #630 of 676 statewide, top 95%, 486 students, 82% FRL); Lassiter Middle (math 11% / reading 25%, grade F, #208 of 217 statewide, top 96%, 1,004 students, 70% FRL); Iroquois High (math 12% / reading 8%, grade F, #245 of 254 statewide, top 97%, 1,090 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 56% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 13% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 210 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.58%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,260
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1566 Loney Ln	0.45mi	2/1.0	820 (-3%)	3mo	$53,850	$66	72
1323 Thornberry Ave	0.51mi	2/1.0	823 (-2%)	1mo	$140,000	$170	71
1325 Lillian Ave	0.66mi	2/1.0	847 (+0%)	3mo	$140,000	$165	66
1510 Clara Ave	0.50mi	2/1.0	793 (-6%)	2mo	$136,000	$172	65
1525 Sale Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0	808 (-4%)	4mo	$105,000	$130	61
1729 Sonne Ave	0.52mi	2/1.0	765 (-9%)	2mo	$185,000	$242	58
1243 Arcade Ave	0.41mi	2/1.0	720 (-15%)	2mo	$60,000	$83	55
1642 Sale Ave	0.69mi	2/1.0	801 (-5%)	5mo	$127,000	$159	55
3438 Glendale Ave	0.47mi	2/1.0	722 (-14%)	1mo	$141,000	$195	53
3420 Powell Ave	0.56mi	2/1.0	720 (-15%)	2mo	$137,500	$191	48
3008 Taylor Blvd	0.72mi	2/2.0	912 (+8%)	5mo	$149,000	$163	45
3012 Montana Ave	0.71mi	1/1.0 (-1)	963 (+14%)	5mo	$39,000	$40	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $959
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $13,990
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40216

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,092 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $813/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $731

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $336	-5% $311	+0% $285	+5% $260	+10% $234
Rent	-10% $199	-5% $242	+0% $285	+5% $328	+10% $371
Rate	-1.0pp $330	-0.5pp $308	base $285	+0.5pp $262	+1.0pp $238

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1637 Thornberry Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	5d	1	0.35mi
1731 Sonne Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1010	$1,300	$1.29	18d	1	0.51mi
1305 Larchmont Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1113	$1,350	$1.21	18d	1	0.53mi
1726 Sonne Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	820	$1,095	$1.34	18d	1	0.54mi
1122 Larchmont Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	864	$750	$0.87	18d	1	0.58mi
1122 Larchmont Ave Unit B Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	700	$750	$1.07	19d	1	0.58mi
1122 Larchmont Ave Unit B Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	864	$750	$0.87	25d	1	0.58mi
1411 Sale Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	936	$1,000	$1.07	18d	1	0.64mi
3449 Powell Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,000	$1.25	25d	1	0.66mi
1301 Lillian Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	974	$1,250	$1.28	18d	1	0.68mi
3107 Montana Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	986	$995	$1.01	25d	1	0.72mi
1438 Lillian Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	777	$1,050	$1.35	19d	1	0.72mi
1120 Weller Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	912	$1,500	$1.64	5d	1	0.76mi
3513 Georgetown Pl Unit 3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$949	$1.19	25d	1	0.81mi
1111 Dresden Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	680	$1,100	$1.62	18d	1	0.83mi
1709 Valley Forge Way Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$895	$1.19	23d	1	0.83mi
1711 Valley Forge Way Unit 4 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$949	$1.05	12d	1	0.84mi
3523 Georgetown Pl #3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$850	$1.00	19d	1	0.86mi
2311 Plantation Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	988	$1,200	$1.21	18d	1	0.86mi
2826 Taylor Blvd Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1044	$1,345	$1.29	25d	1	0.86mi
3524 Georgetown Cir Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	734	$1,050	$1.43	5d	1	0.90mi
3524 Georgetown Cir Unit 3530 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	886	$1,350	$1.52	5d	1	0.90mi
3524 Georgetown Cir Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0	684	$1,108	$1.62	16d	4	0.90mi
3524 Georgetown Cir Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0	684	$1,108	$1.62	25d	2	0.90mi
4600 South St Unit PARKWAYE1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$749	$1.07	25d	1	0.94mi
1055 Euclid Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	914	$1,325	$1.45	25d	1	0.95mi
3627 Parthenia Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,245	$1.38	25d	1	0.95mi
3655 Kahlert Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	915	$1,300	$1.42	13d	1	1.01mi
1118 W Whitney Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	771	$1,199	$1.56	25d	1	1.07mi
1606 Algonquin Pkwy Unit 22 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	626	$750	$1.20	25d	1	1.08mi
3700 Georgetown Pl Unit 2302-201 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$901	$1.13	13d	1	1.09mi
3700 Georgetown Pl Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$901	$1.13	25d	1	1.09mi
3717 Wheeler Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,450	$1.29	25d	1	1.13mi
2716 S 6th St Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	881	$950	$1.08	18d	1	1.14mi
623 Dresden Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$975	$1.30	18d	1	1.14mi
1836 Algonquin Pkwy Unit 1 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	650	$650	$1.00	16d	1	1.15mi
1836 Algonquin Pkwy Unit 2 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	600	$650	$1.08	25d	1	1.15mi
1105 Beecher St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	708	$1,150	$1.62	18d	1	1.15mi
615 Dresden Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	884	$1,450	$1.64	25d	1	1.17mi
508 M St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.5	1035	$1,100	$1.06	25d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-02-28
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-08
   price $90,000
3. 2025-09-06
   listed $96,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $813 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $813 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,099
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$813
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,048
• − Management: −$1,048
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $2,081
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$499
• After-tax cash flow: $2,922/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 44,047
• Household income: $56,441
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1434.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 45% White 43% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -234.72%
• Current HPI: 269.5447
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.57%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-6.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-28 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $90,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-09-06 Listed $96,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $813 · +248.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.