59831 Sterling Hwy · Cohoe, AK 99610

$200,000

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1967 4.34 ac lot Est $385k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

AS IS WHERE IS This property offers an incredible chance to create your own slice of Alaskan paradise. Easy access to the Sterling Highway, the home is surrounded by mature trees and natural beauty, providing excellent privacy while remaining conveniently located. Just minutes away you'll find the world-famous Kasilof River, known for its outstanding salmon fishing, as well as Johnson Lake -- both popular for boating, fishing, and recreation. This is a true outdoor enthusiast's location with wildlife, scenery, and endless adventure right at your doorstep. Please note: This is a heavy fixer-upper. The house has been neglected for some time and requires significant work. If you're looking fo

Key facts

• Excellent privacy
• Scenery
• Wildlife

Tags

• KASILOF RIVER
• JOHNSON LAKE
• MATURE TREES
• EXCELLENT PRIVACY
• WILDLIFE
• SCENERY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Attached property; Built in 1967
• Construction: Wood frame construction
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Paved road access; Waterfront property

Interior

• Bedrooms: One bedroom
• Bathrooms: One 3/4 bath
• Interior features: One total room count not specified in detail

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $120 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#79 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tustumena Elementary (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #75 of 156 statewide, top 52%, 135 students, 47% FRL); Skyview Middle School (math 32% / reading 50%, grade F, #15 of 36 statewide, top 40%, 374 students, 38% FRL); River City Academy (math 44% / reading 64%, grade C-, #7 of 61 statewide, top 10%, 91 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $167,474 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.58%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $385,472
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20618 Crooked Creek Rd	0.60mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+3%)	15mo	$395,000	$317	50
52355 Beverly Ave	0.22mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (-13%)	12mo	$210,000	$199	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.18% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $33,552
• Equity at exit: $91,929

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $106,301
• Equity at exit: $143,248

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99610

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,675 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $847/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,522

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $234	-5% $177	+0% $120	+5% $64	+10% $7
Rent	-10% $-12	-5% $54	+0% $120	+5% $186	+10% $253
Rate	-1.0pp $221	-0.5pp $171	base $120	+0.5pp $69	+1.0pp $16

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $200,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $200,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $200,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $847 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,613 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$767/yr (+$64/mo · 90.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,097
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$847
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
• − Management: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,987
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$477
• After-tax cash flow: $1,921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenai Peninsula Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,704
• Composite: 36.71/100
• National rank: #4594
• State rank: #8 of 21 in AK

Livability — Cohoe

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #18781

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cohoe, AK
• City population: 2,307
• Population (ZIP): 2,307

Population outlook (Kenai Peninsula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,736 people
• By 2030: 66,260 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 70,449 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 74,414 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 87,508 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 95,360 · +49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 13% Native American 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 5% Slovak 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenai Peninsula

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.18%
• Current HPI: 179.9587
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $200,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $847 · +38.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.