20060 Shadow Island Dr · Santa Clarita, CA 91351

$235,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,234 sqft · Manufactured public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1991 3,698 sqft lot Est $193k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rustic Farmhouse Charm with Modern Comforts in Canyon View Estates! Welcome to this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home spanning 1,234 square feet, where farmhouse style meets everyday functionality. From the moment you arrive, the upgraded exterior light fixtures add a touch of elegance and curb appeal. Step inside to a warm and inviting living room featuring a cozy fireplace with rock accents and a custom rustic wood mantel, perfect for relaxing evenings. A ceiling fan overhead and custom wood trim around the windows and sliding doors complete the space with comfort and character. The kitchen is a true standout with gray-painted cabinetry, butcher block countertops, stainless s

Key facts

• Tile flooring
• 3,698 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• CUSTOM RUSTIC WOOD MANTEL
• GRAY-PAINTED CABINETRY
• BUTCHER BLOCK COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• TILE FLOORING
• ABUNDANCE OF CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease payment of $1,559.04
• HOA & community: Sidewalks in community; Land lease (monthly)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-family house; Single-story; Ground-level entry
• Construction: Certified 433a foundation
• Exterior features: Community pool; Front yard; Back yard; Wrought iron and block wall fencing; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms; Primary bedroom
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower and shower-in-tub options
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (furnace); Central cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Open floor plan; Cathedral or vaulted ceilings; Ground-level entry; One-story layout; Community spa
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room; Gas dryer hookup; Separate laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $887 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $235k).
• Recommended offer: $221k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 2.8% in Santa Clarita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#229 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• William S. Hart Union High (suburban): math 52% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #155 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 106 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $235k implies a 683% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.17%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $192,504
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #247	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+1%)	8mo	$155,000	$124	74
20401 Soledad Cyn #355	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+1%)	1mo	$224,000	$179	67
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #126	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,224 (-1%)	8mo	$130,000	$106	61
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #114	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (-5%)	4mo	$184,000	$156	59
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #451	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (-5%)	7mo	$157,000	$134	56
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #342	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+9%)	8mo	$210,000	$156	48
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #690	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+9%)	16mo	$240,400	$179	42
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #511	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,050 (-15%)	4mo	$229,000	$218	41
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #203	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+14%)	19mo	$235,000	$167	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $14,537
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $69,923
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91351

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,941 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,276/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$618
• Net cashflow: $887

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,818

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,020	-5% $953	+0% $887	+5% $820	+10% $754
Rent	-10% $655	-5% $771	+0% $887	+5% $1,003	+10% $1,119
Rate	-1.0pp $1,005	-0.5pp $947	base $887	+0.5pp $826	+1.0pp $764

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26956 Flo Ln #338 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	1064	$2,875	$2.70	2d	1	0.61mi
26955 Rainbow Glen Dr Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.0	1007	$2,850	$2.83	2d	1	0.67mi
26941 Rainbow Glen Dr #751 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	907	$2,900	$3.20	2d	1	0.68mi
26921 Flo Ln Canyon Country, CA	3.0	2.0	1107	$2,950	$2.66	2d	1	0.69mi
26901 Rainbow Glen Dr Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.0	1001	$2,950	$2.95	2d	1	0.73mi
26842 Claudette St #204 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	964	$2,650	$2.75	2d	1	0.76mi
20345 Rue Crevier Santa Clarita, CA	2.0	2.0	907	$2,700	$2.98	2d	1	0.76mi
28085 Whites Canyon Rd Canyon Country, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	714	$2,100	$2.94	2d	7	0.83mi
26741 Isabella Pkwy Canyon Country, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$2,989	$3.52	2d	3	0.88mi
27301 Whites Canyon Rd Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,995	$2.22	18d	2	1.03mi
19028 Drycliff St Unit C Canyon Country, CA	3.0	1.5	982	$3,600	$3.67	3d	1	1.09mi
20000 Plum Canyon Rd Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	3.0	1370	$3,700	$2.70	2d	1	1.16mi
20000 Plum Canyon Rd Santa Clarita, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1051	$2,925	$2.78	24d	2	1.16mi
28427 Santa Rosa Ln Santa Clarita, CA	2.0	2.0	1121	$3,000	$2.68	2d	1	1.18mi
19335 Laroda Ln Santa Clarita, CA	2.0	2.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	8d	1	1.18mi
28136 Bakerton Ave Canyon Country, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,800	$2.71	8d	1	1.23mi
27077 Hidaway Ave Canyon Country, CA	2.0	1.0	960	$2,400	$2.50	2d	1	1.38mi
27070 Hidaway Ave #4 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	1.5	1078	$3,200	$2.97	3d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $235,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-17
    price $235,000
16. 2026-04-09
    listed $252,900 Active
17. 2026-03-31
    historical
18. 2026-03-05
    price $252,900
19. 2025-12-19
    listed $260,000 Active
20. 2025-04-17
    historical
21. 2025-04-07
    price $299,000
22. 2024-11-21
    listed $310,000 Active
23. 2011-11-16
    soldstatus $30,000 Closed
24. 2011-10-07
    status Pending
25. 2011-09-06
    price $20,000
26. 2011-07-30
    price $25,000
27. 2011-03-10
    listed $29,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,276 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,786 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$510/yr (+$43/mo · 40.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,293
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,276
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,823
• − Management: −$2,823
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable income: $7,196
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,727
• After-tax cash flow: $8,916/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William S. Hart Union High
• NCES district ID: 0642510
• Math proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $95,844
• Composite: 58.6/100
• National rank: #2030
• State rank: #155 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Clarita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #7378

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Clarita, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 219,066
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,155
• Household income: $115,364
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 34% Two or more races 21% Asian 6% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -703.16%
• Current HPI: 360.9901
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+710.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $235,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $252,900 CRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $252,900 CRMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $260,000 CRMLS
• 2025-04-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $299,000 CRMLS
• 2024-11-21 Listed $310,000 CRMLS
• 2011-11-16 Sold (MLS) $30,000 CRMLS
• 2011-10-07 Pending — CRMLS
• 2011-09-06 Price Changed $20,000 CRMLS
• 2011-07-30 Price Changed $25,000 CRMLS
• 2011-03-10 Listed $29,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,276 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.