22158 Big Oak Dr · Emerald Bay, TX 75762

$134,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1983 10,542 sqft lot $141/sqft · 63% below area $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away in Flint, TX, this 0.242-acre property offers a great opportunity for those looking to create something special. The 960 sq ft home features a functional layout with plenty of potential to update, personalize, or reimagine to fit your vision. Surrounded by mature trees and a spacious yard, there’s room to expand outdoor living areas, add a shop, or simply enjoy the privacy and quiet of East Texas living. Inside, the home offers a cozy footprint with natural light flowing through the main living spaces. The kitchen and living area provide a solid foundation for modern upgrades, while the bedrooms offer comfortable space for everyday living or guest accommodations. Whether you're an investor, first-time buyer, or someone looking for a project with upside, this property presents a unique chance to add value. Conveniently located near Tyler amenities while still offering a more relaxed, rural feel, this Flint property is full of potential and ready for its next chapter.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Outdoor living areas
• Modern upgrades

Tags

• 0.242-ACRE PROPERTY
• MATURE TREES
• SPACIOUS YARD
• OUTDOOR LIVING AREAS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• MODERN UPGRADES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $324 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.9% in Emerald Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#293 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Bullard ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #48 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 354 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,853 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.30%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $368,679
• List price: $134,900
• Delta: -63.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,172
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $25,725
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75762

• Home prices YoY: -28.4%
• Active inventory: 354
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,620 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,122/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,209

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22712 Creekwood Dr Flint, TX	2.0	1.0	992	$1,500	$1.51	13d	1	0.53mi
20973 Lakeview Dr Flint, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	13d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 998-char remark

   Show marketing remark (998 chars)

   Tucked away in Flint, TX, this 0.242-acre property offers a great opportunity for those looking to create something special. The 960 sq ft home features a functional layout with plenty of potential to update, personalize, or reimagine to fit your vision. Surrounded by mature trees and a spacious yard, there’s room to expand outdoor living areas, add a shop, or simply enjoy the privacy and quiet of East Texas living. Inside, the home offers a cozy footprint with natural light flowing through the main living spaces. The kitchen and living area provide a solid foundation for modern upgrades, while the bedrooms offer comfortable space for everyday living or guest accommodations. Whether you're an investor, first-time buyer, or someone looking for a project with upside, this property presents a unique chance to add value. Conveniently located near Tyler amenities while still offering a more relaxed, rural feel, this Flint property is full of potential and ready for its next chapter.

2. 2026-04-08
   listed $134,900 Active 998-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

   Tucked away in Flint, TX, this 0.242-acre property offers a great opportunity for those looking to create something special. The 960 sq ft home features a functional layout with plenty of potential to update, personalize, or reimagine to fit your vision. Surrounded by mature trees and a spacious yard, there’s room to expand outdoor living areas, add a shop/garage, or simply enjoy the privacy and quiet of East Texas living. Inside, the home offers a cozy footprint with natural light flowing through the main living spaces. The kitchen and living area provide a solid foundation for modern upgrades, while the bedrooms offer comfortable space for everyday living or guest accommodations. Whether you're an investor, first-time buyer, or someone looking for a project with upside, this property presents a unique chance to add value. Conveniently located near Tyler amenities while still offering a more relaxed, rural feel, this Flint property is full of potential and ready for its next chapter.

3. 2026-04-08
   listed $134,900 Active 1005-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

   Tucked away in Flint, TX, this 0.242-acre property offers a great opportunity for those looking to create something special. The 960 sq ft home features a functional layout with plenty of potential to update, personalize, or reimagine to fit your vision. Surrounded by mature trees and a spacious yard, there’s room to expand outdoor living areas, add a shop/garage, or simply enjoy the privacy and quiet of East Texas living. Inside, the home offers a cozy footprint with natural light flowing through the main living spaces. The kitchen and living area provide a solid foundation for modern upgrades, while the bedrooms offer comfortable space for everyday living or guest accommodations. Whether you're an investor, first-time buyer, or someone looking for a project with upside, this property presents a unique chance to add value. Conveniently located near Tyler amenities while still offering a more relaxed, rural feel, this Flint property is full of potential and ready for its next chapter.

4. 2022-08-24
   soldstatus Closed
5. 2022-07-19
   soldstatus
6. 2022-07-15
   soldstatus
7. 2022-06-14
   status Pending
8. 2022-06-03
   historical Active Option Contract
9. 2022-06-03
   listed $139,000
10. 2022-05-27
    listed $139,000 Active
11. 2019-10-22
    soldstatus
12. 2016-12-14
    soldstatus
13. 2016-12-08
    soldstatus
14. 2016-10-11
    listed $78,000
15. 2007-08-07
    soldstatus
16. 2003-07-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,122 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,469 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$346/yr (+$29/mo · 16.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,439
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$2,122
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,555
• − Management: −$1,555
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $1,871
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$449
• After-tax cash flow: $3,441/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812060
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,026
• Composite: 53.66/100
• National rank: #1433
• State rank: #48 of 826 in TX

Livability — Emerald Bay

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #293
• US rank: #6721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,704
• Household income: $90,057
• Rent vs Own: 14.6% rent · 85.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 98.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Serbian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.39%
• Current HPI: 197.2375
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+72.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-04-08 Listed $134,900 GTAR
• 2026-04-08 Listed $134,900 LAAR
• 2022-08-24 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-07-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-07-15 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2022-06-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-06-03 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-06-03 Listed $139,000 GTAR
• 2022-05-27 Listed $139,000 NTREIS
• 2019-10-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-12-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-12-08 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2016-10-11 Listed $78,000 GTAR
• 2007-08-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,122 · -12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.