26931 Deacon Loop · Wesley Chapel, FL 33544

$189,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1995 1.17 ac lot Est $284k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to own a 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offering 1,344 sqft of living space, situated on a spacious 1.17-acre lot) You own the land, no lot rent and no HOA. The home has been recently cosmetically updated and features vinyl flooring, an open-concept layout, and a large kitchen with plenty of cabinet space. The primary bedroom includes an en-suite bathroom, and there is a convenient in-home washer and dryer closet. Central A/C already in place. While the home has had recent improvements, it could still use some TLC to reach its full potential, and it’s priced accordingly, well below market value for a quick sale. Plenty of space for outdoor activities, storage, t

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Large kitchen
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LARGE KITCHEN
• PLENTY OF CABINET SPACE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• IN-HOME WASHER AND DRYER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoning: AR
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; Residential property; One story; Faces east; Property in completed condition; Lot approximately 1.17 acres (185 x 275)
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Building area about 1,344 square feet
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Public maintained road access; Road surface: other

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes appliances (unspecified/other)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Kitchen and family room combo; Split bedroom floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry in a laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $173k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $190k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,854 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.71%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $283,584
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6527 Angus Valley Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	1mo	$290,000	$224	66
6735 Ravenwood St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+4%)	1mo	$225,000	$160	66
26734 Deacon Loop	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-12%)	12mo	$257,000	$216	63
6416 Candlewood Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	1mo	$263,250	$211	54
6401 Angus Valley Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	6mo	$275,000	$191	44
6449 Wendell Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	17mo	$295,000	$195	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-25,859
• Equity at exit: $28,322

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-33,201
• Equity at exit: $16,423

Cash invested: $53,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33544

• Home prices YoY: -24.1%
• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,348 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,066/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,119

Max offer price $189,950

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,488
• Closing costs: $5,698
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
Address Not Available PL Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$1,964	$1.94	3d	25	0.42mi
27560 York Harbor Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,142	$1.46	5d	6	1.35mi
6561 Halo Bend Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1736	$2,385	$1.37	24d	1	1.40mi
6601 Halo Bend Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1885	$2,265	$1.20	24d	4	1.41mi
28240 Wave Crest Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1736	$2,395	$1.38	22d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-21
   price $189,950
2. 2026-03-13
   price $194,900
3. 2026-02-23
   listed $199,900 Active
4. 2025-12-18
   historical
5. 2025-06-18
   listed $229,899 Active
6. 2009-12-17
   soldstatus $85,500
7. 2009-04-13
   historical
8. 2008-04-05
   listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,066 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,066 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,181
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,640
• − Property taxes: −$2,066
• − Insurance: −$6,068
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,254
• − Management: −$2,254
• − Depreciation: −$5,526
• Taxable loss: −$628
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$151
• After-tax cash flow: $2,326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,901
• Household income: $104,573
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 20% Black 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.76%
• Current HPI: 266.5191
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.30%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+217.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $189,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $194,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Listed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-18 Listed $229,899 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $85,500 Public Records
• 2009-04-13 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-05 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,066 · +19.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.