180 Railway St · Ferguson, IA 50078

$124,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 219 Days on market

Built 2001 0.33 ac lot $89/sqft · 31% below area Est $181k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very well maintained property in quaint small town. Double garage with an attached heated shop. Appliances remain including washer/dryer & large big screen TV. Nice landscaped yard. Walking close to school playground.

Key facts

• Double garage
• Attached heated shop
• Landscaped yard

Tags

• DOUBLE GARAGE
• ATTACHED HEATED SHOP
• LANDSCAPED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#746 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• East Marshall Community School District (rural): math 63% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #165 of 289 in IA (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Marshall County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $109,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.36%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,614
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -30.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $24,950
• Equity at exit: $56,160

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $74,839
• Equity at exit: $86,550

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50078

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,165 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $684/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $967

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $227	-5% $192	+0% $156	+5% $121	+10% $85
Rent	-10% $64	-5% $110	+0% $156	+5% $202	+10% $248
Rate	-1.0pp $219	-0.5pp $188	base $156	+0.5pp $124	+1.0pp $91

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $124,900 Active 219 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 218 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 217 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 216 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $124,900 Active 213 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,900 Active 212 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 209 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $124,900 Active 208 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $134,900 Active 207 DOM
11. 2025-11-04
    listed $134,900 Active 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    Very well maintained property in quaint small town. Double garage with an attached heated shop. Appliances remain including washer/dryer & large big screen TV. Nice landscaped yard. Walking close to school playground.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $684 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,322 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$638/yr (+$53/mo · 93.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,978
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$684
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,118
• − Management: −$1,118
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$197
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$47
• After-tax cash flow: $1,921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Marshall Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1900040
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,218
• Composite: 58.17/100
• National rank: #1025
• State rank: #165 of 289 in IA

Livability — Ferguson

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #746
• US rank: #17159

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferguson, IA
• City population: 97
• Population (ZIP): 97

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,166 people
• By 2030: 41,477 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 42,548 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 44,472 · +8.0%
• By 2075: 52,719 · +28.1%
• By 2100: 60,912 · +48.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: R (+15.6) · D 41.4% · R 57.0% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.9pp toward R · 2008: 9.3pp · 2024: -15.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.6 2020: R+7.7 2016: R+8.5 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-04 Listed $134,900 IAR

Property tax history

-2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $684 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.