509 N Walnut St · Byron, IL 61010

$164,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,312 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1900 0.50 ac lot $126/sqft · at area comps Est $157k · at est. ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the city of Byron. Close to downtown and schools. Newly updated back porch with a space for washer and dryer. Huge 30 x 60 garage with steps to go upstairs. Being sold as is.

Key facts

• 30 x 60 garage
• Back porch
• 0.5 acre lot

Tags

• BACK PORCH
• SPACE FOR WASHER AND DRYER
• 30 X 60 GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $293 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#100 in IL, #1,602 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Byron CUSD 226 (town): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #68 of 620 in IL (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Ogle County in 2024 (67 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ogle County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $150,059 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.60%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,256
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: 4.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
332 N Franklin St	0.21mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,372 (+5%)	8mo	$186,560	$136	71
302 E 4th St	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,362 (+4%)	22mo	$175,000	$128	60
216 S Washington St	0.49mi	2/1.0	1,186 (-10%)	1mo	$167,000	$141	58
216 S Washington St	0.49mi	2/1.0	1,186 (-10%)	1mo	$167,000	$141	58
304 N Union St	0.17mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (-8%)	23mo	$116,000	$97	52
115 W Merchant St	0.44mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,134 (-14%)	18mo	$116,500	$103	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-8,025
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $17,262
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61010

• Home prices YoY: -27.8%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,885 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,161/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,515

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $164,900 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $164,900 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $164,900 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    price $164,900 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    Located in the city of Byron. Close to downtown and schools. Newly updated back porch with a space for washer and dryer. Huge 30 x 60 garage with steps to go upstairs. Being sold as is.

17. 2026-04-29
    price $164,900 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    Located in the city of Byron. Close to downtown and schools. Newly updated back porch with a space for washer and dryer. Huge 30 x 60 garage with steps to go upstairs. Being sold as is.

18. 2026-04-10
    status Active 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    Located in the city of Byron. Close to downtown and schools. Newly updated back porch with a space for washer and dryer. Huge 30 x 60 garage with steps to go upstairs. Being sold as is.

19. 2026-04-10
    status Active 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    Located in the city of Byron. Close to downtown and schools. Newly updated back porch with a space for washer and dryer. Huge 30 x 60 garage with steps to go upstairs. Being sold as is.

20. 2026-04-03
    status Pending 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    Located in the city of Byron. Close to downtown and schools. Newly updated back porch with a space for washer and dryer. Huge 30 x 60 garage with steps to go upstairs. Being sold as is.

21. 2026-04-03
    status Pending 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    Located in the city of Byron. Close to downtown and schools. Newly updated back porch with a space for washer and dryer. Huge 30 x 60 garage with steps to go upstairs. Being sold as is.

22. 2026-03-09
    listed $169,000 Active 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    Located in the city of Byron. Close to downtown and schools. Newly updated back porch with a space for washer and dryer. Huge 30 x 60 garage with steps to go upstairs. Being sold as is.

23. 2026-03-09
    listed $169,000 Active 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    Located in the city of Byron. Close to downtown and schools. Newly updated back porch with a space for washer and dryer. Huge 30 x 60 garage with steps to go upstairs. Being sold as is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,161 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,452 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: +$291/yr (+$24/mo · 9.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$3,161
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,810
• − Management: −$1,810
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable income: $985
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$236
• After-tax cash flow: $3,274/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Byron CUSD 226
• NCES district ID: 1708010
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $66,582
• Composite: 42.28/100
• National rank: #3267
• State rank: #68 of 620 in IL

Livability — Byron

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #100
• US rank: #1602

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Byron, IL
• City population: 7,494
• Population (ZIP): 7,494

Population outlook (Ogle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,390 people
• By 2030: 46,346 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 41,772 · -13.7%
• By 2050: 36,911 · -23.7%
• By 2075: 27,130 · -43.9%
• By 2100: 18,627 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Ogle

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.4) · D 34.5% · R 63.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -7.6pp · 2024: -29.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.4 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.6 2012: R+16.7 2008: R+7.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.23%
• Current HPI: 171.8623
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $164,900 NWIAR
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $164,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — NWIAR
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-03-09 Listed $169,000 NWIAR
• 2026-03-09 Listed $169,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,161 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.