94273 Duck Lake Dr · Fernandina Beach, FL 32034

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1989 0.45 ac lot Est $210k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Reduced for quick sale.Wake up to coffee on either front or back deck with this beautiful remodeled home. Move in ready with new roof, floors, vanities, cabinets, fans in every room, too many extras to mention! Above ground pool 2 1/2 car garage! Thermo fan in attic, lots of storage space. Water treatment in garden shed. Spot lights on home, garage and utility pole. Den can be easily converted to 4th bedroom. Seller willing to work with buyer to make this happen!

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1989

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Furnishing negotiable
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Gated parking; 2-car garage
• Security: Gated garage/parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Water connected; Sewer available/connected; Electricity available; Cable available; Propane available
• Home design: Double wide manufactured home; Single-family residential use; Property is attached (manufactured setting)
• Construction: Shingle roof; Other construction materials
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Chain link fencing; Asphalt road frontage; Lot approximately 0.45 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Propane heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Washer and dryer (included); Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas cooktop and gas oven; Carpet and tile flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Propane available (utility)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $407 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 1.0% in Fernandina Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#369 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 946 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $85k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $150k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.81%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $209,664
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
85034 Admiral Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	23mo	$114,000	$79	54
94072 Duck Lake Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	12mo	$180,000	$156	52
85132 Lonnie Crews Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	5mo	$182,500	$158	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $519
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $29,443
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32034

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 946
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,367 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,852

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 691-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   price $150,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $185,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    status $185,000 Pending 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    status $185,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    status Pending
16. 2026-04-22
    price $185,000
17. 2026-04-15
    listed $235,000 Active
18. 2011-04-01
    soldstatus $85,000
19. 2010-12-17
    historical 468-char remark

    Show marketing remark (468 chars)

    Reduced for quick sale.Wake up to coffee on either front or back deck with this beautiful remodeled home. Move in ready with new roof, floors, vanities, cabinets, fans in every room, too many extras to mention! Above ground pool 2 1/2 car garage! Thermo fan in attic, lots of storage space. Water treatment in garden shed. Spot lights on home, garage and utility pole. Den can be easily converted to 4th bedroom. Seller willing to work with buyer to make this happen!

20. 2009-05-16
    listed $74,000 468-char remark

    Show marketing remark (468 chars)

    Reduced for quick sale.Wake up to coffee on either front or back deck with this beautiful remodeled home. Move in ready with new roof, floors, vanities, cabinets, fans in every room, too many extras to mention! Above ground pool 2 1/2 car garage! Thermo fan in attic, lots of storage space. Water treatment in garden shed. Spot lights on home, garage and utility pole. Den can be easily converted to 4th bedroom. Seller willing to work with buyer to make this happen!

21. 2008-12-24
    historical 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    Enjoy your morning coffee to the sounds of birds in this totally remodeled home. New everything, roof, carpet,tile...too many to mention, call for detailed list! Move in ready! Seller motivated.REDUCED THOUSANDS!100% FINANCING AVAILABLE

22. 2008-06-24
    listed $119,900 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    Enjoy your morning coffee to the sounds of birds in this totally remodeled home. New everything, roof, carpet,tile...too many to mention, call for detailed list! Move in ready! Seller motivated.REDUCED THOUSANDS!100% FINANCING AVAILABLE

23. 2006-06-14
    soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,402
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$5,868
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,272
• − Management: −$2,272
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $2,973
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$714
• After-tax cash flow: $4,166/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fernandina Beach

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #369
• US rank: #6484

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nassau County · 67,729 people
• City population: 41,029
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,029
• Household income: $98,583
• Rent vs Own: 17.2% rent · 82.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1230.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -576.71%
• Current HPI: 340.2096
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.42%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+117.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $185,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $235,000 realMLS
• 2011-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2010-12-17 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2009-05-16 Listed $74,000 realMLS
• 2008-12-24 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2008-06-24 Listed $119,900 realMLS
• 2006-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $159 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.