21626 Carbonari Dr · Tomball, TX 77377

$288,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,868 sqft · SingleFamily · 86 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $135/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-floor living. An open-concept design blends the kitchen, dining room and family room for optimal multitasking and everyday transitions. A nearby covered patio provides effortless outdoor recreation. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• SINGLE-FLOOR LIVING
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $288,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $347,217.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $289k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-771 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (18.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 3.0% in Tomball — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 905 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 43d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $223,290 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.51%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $347,217
• List price: $288,990
• Delta: -16.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19214 Saint Green Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,876 (+0%)	0mo	$261,990	$140	90
19222 Saint Green Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,984 (+6%)	1mo	$272,990	$138	87
22103 La Scorza Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,908 (+2%)	0mo	$305,990	$160	87
22115 La Scorza Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,908 (+2%)	0mo	$304,990	$160	87
21630 Carbonari Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,724 (-8%)	0mo	$268,991	$156	78
21930 Terre Riviera Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,042 (+9%)	0mo	$285,990	$140	76
19646 Costa Marra Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,644 (-12%)	0mo	$250,000	$152	76
22211 Senoma Ridge Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,820 (-3%)	0mo	$298,000	$164	75
19646 Costa Marra Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,644 (-12%)	0mo	$265,990	$162	75
22119 La Scorza Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-14%)	0mo	$276,990	$173	67
22107 La Scorza Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-14%)	0mo	$275,990	$172	67
21015 Solstice Point Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,611 (-14%)	0mo	$249,900	$155	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-111,768
• Equity at exit: $51,771

10-year hold

• IRR: -77.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.91×
• Total profit: $-185,335
• Equity at exit: $30,021

Cash invested: $97,221 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 298 active · 116 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.6 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $305,990 ($164/sqft)
• Median days on market: 101 d
• This list price: 30% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77377

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 905
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,233 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,821
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$434 /mo · $5,208/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-771

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,208

Max offer price $235,718

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-531	-5% $-651	+0% $-771	+5% $-891	+10% $-1,011
Rent	-10% $-947	-5% $-859	+0% $-771	+5% $-682	+10% $-594
Rate	-1.0pp $-596	-0.5pp $-682	base $-771	+0.5pp $-861	+1.0pp $-952

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,804
• Closing costs: $10,417
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22215 Scarlino Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	2099	$2,300	$1.10	42d	1	0.20mi
20722 Nala Bear Dr Hockley, TX	5.0	2.5	2593	$2,100	$0.81	37d	1	0.42mi
22222 Opa Glen Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	3.0	2609	$2,850	$1.09	93d	1	0.46mi
22154 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$2,180	$1.36	2d	5	0.48mi
20703 Solstice Point Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1912	$1,766	$0.92	36d	1	0.49mi
20802 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,666	$1.06	42d	1	0.57mi
20718 Round Key Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2133	$1,806	$0.85	48d	1	0.68mi
21210 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2221	$2,150	$0.97	52d	1	0.79mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$2,712	$1.32	0d	1	0.92mi
22719 Klingamans Way Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,589	$1.12	38d	1	0.94mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Managed by RealManage Onsite ElevatedCommunity amenities: clubhouse, sport court, fitness center, picnic area, park, pool, tennis courtsAnnual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundation
• Construction: Built by Lennar HomesBrick exteriorComposition roofEstimated year built 2026
• Exterior features: Fence with backyard fencingSubdivision lot settingAssociation pool

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric oven and electric rangeGas oven and gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 14 x 13)Three additional bedrooms on first floor (each approx. 10 x 11)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen and family room combinedSeparate showerTub with showerKitchen and dining combined
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $288,990 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $288,990 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $288,990 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $288,990 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $288,990 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $288,990 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $288,990 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $288,990 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $288,990 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $288,990 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $288,990 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $288,990 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $288,990 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $288,990 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $288,990 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $288,990 Active 64 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $288,990 Active 63 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $288,990 Active 62 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $298,990 Active 61 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $298,990 Active 60 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $298,990 Active 59 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $298,990 Active 58 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $298,990 Active 57 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $298,990 Active 56 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $298,990 Active 54 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $298,990 Active 53 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $298,990 Active 52 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $298,990 Active 51 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $298,990 Active 50 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $298,990 Active 49 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $298,990 Active 48 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $298,990 Active 47 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $298,990 Active 46 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $298,990 Active 45 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $298,990 Active 44 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    pricedays on market $298,990 Active 43 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $303,990 Active 41 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $303,990 Active 38 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $303,990 Active 35 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $303,990 Active 34 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $303,990 Active 33 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    remarks 658-char remark
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $303,990 Active 32 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $303,990 Active 30 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    pricedays on market $303,990 Active 26 DOM

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-floor living. An open-concept design blends the kitchen, dining room and family room for optimal multitasking and everyday transitions. A nearby covered patio provides effortless outdoor recreation. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $291,290 Active 25 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $291,290 Active 24 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $291,290 Active 21 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $291,290 Active 20 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $291,290 Active 19 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,450
• − Property taxes: −$5,208
• − Insurance: −$1,736
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,144
• − Management: −$2,144
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$10,101
• Taxable loss: −$15,607
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,746
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,501/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,340–$28,020 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a good starting point for potential buyers or renters, with minor updates that could significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Evelyn Turlington El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 113,991
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,680
• Household income: $129,327
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.14%
• Current HPI: 235.031
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Managed by RealManage Onsite ElevatedCommunity amenities: clubhouse, sport court, fitness center, picnic area, park, pool, tennis courtsAnnual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundation
• Construction: Built by Lennar HomesBrick exteriorComposition roofEstimated year built 2026
• Exterior features: Fence with backyard fencingSubdivision lot settingAssociation pool

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric oven and electric rangeGas oven and gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 14 x 13)Three additional bedrooms on first floor (each approx. 10 x 11)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen and family room combinedSeparate showerTub with showerKitchen and dining combined
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $303,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $303,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $291,290 Zillow
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $291,290 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $296,140 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $296,140 Zillow
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $300,790 Zillow
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $305,440 Zillow
• 2026-04-28 Listed $309,990 Zillow