195 S Jordan Dam Rd · Holtville, AL 36092

$199,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,381 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1996 0.34 ac lot Est $200k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a great deal on a three bedroom two full bath home in Holtville Schools. This home is convenient to Prattville, Millbrook, and Wetumpka, not to mention Lake Jordan boat launch. This great home qualifies for 100% financing! Features include brick and vinyl exterior, fenced yard, fireplace, vaulted ceilings, all appliances furnished, and energy saving all electric. Payments can be as low as $495(P & I only). Hurry and make an offer today!

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• Spacious lot
• 0.34 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• WELL-DEFINED LIVING SPACES
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• WELL-APPOINTED EN SUITE BATH
• QUIET COUNTRY-STYLE LIVING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Fire alarm
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available; Propane available; Community/Cooperative water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Ridge vent roof; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built according to public records; Brick and vinyl siding construction; Ridge vent roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Covered porch/patio; Fully fenced yard with privacy fencing; Mature trees; Outside city limits

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Plumbed for ice maker
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Heat pump cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Blinds and window treatments; Double vanity; Garden/Roman tub; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closet(s); Breakfast bar
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Electric water heater; Utility room on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($545/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.0% in Holtville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#155 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Elmore County (town): math 27% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #21 of 129 in AL (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holtville Elementary School (math 44% / reading 67%, grade C, #86 of 627 statewide, top 14%, 779 students, 55% FRL); Holtville Middle School (math 30% / reading 62%, grade D+, #36 of 257 statewide, top 14%, 614 students, 62% FRL); Holtville High School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #47 of 305 statewide, top 17%, 554 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 92 units permitted in Elmore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Elmore County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $200k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,972 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.98%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,245
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
195 S Jordan Dam Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,381 (0%)	1mo	$200,000	$145	99
215 S Jordan Dam Rd	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,282 (-7%)	12mo	$147,500	$115	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-29,531
• Equity at exit: $29,746

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-22,375
• Equity at exit: $17,249

Cash invested: $55,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36092

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,560 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $690/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,502

Max offer price $199,500

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $158	-5% $102	+0% $45	+5% $-11	+10% $-68
Rent	-10% $-78	-5% $-16	+0% $45	+5% $107	+10% $169
Rate	-1.0pp $146	-0.5pp $96	base $45	+0.5pp $-6	+1.0pp $-59

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,875
• Closing costs: $5,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   historical Contingent
3. 2026-04-08
   listed $199,500 Active
4. 2020-04-17
   soldstatus $115,000
5. 2020-04-16
   soldstatus $115,000
6. 2020-03-11
   listed $115,000
7. 2013-06-13
   soldstatus $108,000 452-char remark

   Show marketing remark (452 chars)

   This is a great deal on a three bedroom two full bath home in Holtville Schools. This home is convenient to Prattville, Millbrook, and Wetumpka, not to mention Lake Jordan boat launch. This great home qualifies for 100% financing! Features include brick and vinyl exterior, fenced yard, fireplace, vaulted ceilings, all appliances furnished, and energy saving all electric. Payments can be as low as $495(P & I only). Hurry and make an offer today!

8. 2012-08-15
   listed $112,900 452-char remark

   Show marketing remark (452 chars)

   This is a great deal on a three bedroom two full bath home in Holtville Schools. This home is convenient to Prattville, Millbrook, and Wetumpka, not to mention Lake Jordan boat launch. This great home qualifies for 100% financing! Features include brick and vinyl exterior, fenced yard, fireplace, vaulted ceilings, all appliances furnished, and energy saving all electric. Payments can be as low as $495(P & I only). Hurry and make an offer today!

9. 1997-04-10
   soldstatus $78,900
10. 1996-07-23
    listed $77,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $690 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $818 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$128/yr (+$11/mo · 18.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,717
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,175
• − Property taxes: −$690
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,497
• − Management: −$1,497
• − Depreciation: −$5,804
• Taxable loss: −$2,944
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$707
• After-tax cash flow: $1,251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmore County
• NCES district ID: 0101290
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,898
• Composite: 35.27/100
• National rank: #4974
• State rank: #21 of 129 in AL

Livability — Holtville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #14095

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holtville, AL
• County: Elmore County · 36,842 people
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• Population (ZIP): 22,242
• Household income: $78,094
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Elmore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,154 people
• By 2030: 86,667 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 89,014 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 90,331 · +6.1%
• By 2075: 96,096 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 95,290 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 23% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Elmore

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.6% · R 75.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.1pp toward R · 2008: -50.9pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+48.2 2016: R+52.0 2012: R+48.8 2008: R+50.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.80%
• Current HPI: 157.2258
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+156.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — MAAR
• 2026-04-20 Contingent — MAAR
• 2026-04-08 Listed $199,500 MAAR
• 2020-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2020-04-16 Sold (MLS) $115,000 MAAR
• 2020-03-11 Listed $115,000 MAAR
• 2013-06-13 Sold (MLS) $108,000 MAAR
• 2012-08-15 Listed $112,900 MAAR
• 1997-04-10 Sold (MLS) $78,900 MAAR
• 1996-07-23 Listed $77,900 MAAR

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $690 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.