246 Royalltrail Ln · O'Fallon, MO 63368

$298,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,757 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1994 10,454 sqft lot Est $327k · 9% under $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Picture yourself at 246 Royalltrail Ln, a residence thoroughly refreshed with fresh interior paint and thoughtful upgrades. The kitchen is equipped with all stainless steel appliances, complemented by an accent backsplash that adds a subtle design element. Enjoy evenings by the comforting fireplace, or step outside to the spacious deck for outdoor gatherings. A perfect blend of modern updates, comfort, and outdoor enjoyment. . Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

Key facts

• Spacious deck
• Accent backsplash
• Fireplace

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ACCENT BACKSPLASH
• SPACIOUS DECK
• FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included
• HOA & community: Royallsprings HOA with an annual fee of $235 (includes other HOA amenities)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service (other)
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level (living area spans one level with additional below-grade finished area)
• Construction: Construction materials listed as 'Other'; Partial below-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Private ownership; Lot features noted as 'Other'; Lot dimensions approximately 64 x 125

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total — 2 on the main level, 1 on the lower level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Electric cooling
• Interior features: Partial finished basement; One fireplace (wood burning or other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-240 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (25.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in O'Fallon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ft. Zumwalt R-II (suburban): math 54% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #14 of 324 in MO (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Pheasant Point Elem. (math 56% / reading 65%, grade B-, #118 of 1,115 statewide, top 11%, 436 students, 11% FRL); Ft. Zumwalt West High (math 64% / reading 72%, grade B, #13 of 521 statewide, top 2%, 1,778 students, 17% FRL) — zoned schools at 14% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $200k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,546 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.45%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $326,802
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Royallprairie Ct	0.22mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,753 (-0%)	8mo	$299,900	$171	75
1 Royalltrail Ct	0.11mi	3/3.5 (+1)	1,841 (+5%)	2mo	$350,000	$190	75
4 Royallbridge Ct	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,802 (+3%)	9mo	$375,000	$208	72
2532 Stillwater Dr	0.41mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,746 (-1%)	8mo	$289,000	$166	66
2535 Stillwater Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (-2%)	10mo	$319,900	$186	65
10 Royallridge Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,730 (-2%)	13mo	$359,900	$208	63
2121 Mcgregor Cir	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,750 (-0%)	5mo	$350,000	$200	61
11 Saddleback Ct	0.52mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,808 (+3%)	8mo	$275,000	$152	57
2849 Royallvalley Way	0.29mi	3/3.5 (+1)	1,978 (+13%)	1mo	$400,000	$202	54
2625 Breezy Point Ln	0.42mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,912 (+9%)	6mo	$300,000	$157	53
520 Durango Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,539 (-12%)	6mo	$250,000	$162	51
2422 Sundance Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,531 (-13%)	10mo	$249,900	$163	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-66,697
• Equity at exit: $44,433

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-90,180
• Equity at exit: $25,766

Cash invested: $83,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63368

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,215 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,563
• Tax from tax record: −$284 /mo · $3,402/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,520

Max offer price $255,564

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-72	-5% $-156	+0% $-240	+5% $-325	+10% $-409
Rent	-10% $-415	-5% $-328	+0% $-240	+5% $-153	+10% $-65
Rate	-1.0pp $-90	-0.5pp $-164	base $-240	+0.5pp $-317	+1.0pp $-396

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,500
• Closing costs: $8,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
209 Royallsprings Pkwy O Fallon, MO	3.0	2.5	1512	$2,431	$1.61	0d	1	0.16mi
256 Cherrywood Parc Dr O Fallon, MO	3.0	2.5	1590	$2,276	$1.43	5d	1	1.01mi
381 Erin Dr Saint Peters, MO	3.0	2.5	1288	$2,500	$1.94	25d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $298,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   remarks 483-char remark
3. 2026-06-08
   listed $298,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,402 · $284/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,402 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,586
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,693
• − Property taxes: −$3,402
• − Insurance: −$1,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,127
• − Management: −$2,127
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$8,669
• Taxable loss: −$8,162
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,959
• After-tax cash flow: $-924/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ft. Zumwalt R-II
• NCES district ID: 2908370
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,817
• Composite: 51.04/100
• National rank: #1772
• State rank: #14 of 324 in MO

Livability — O'Fallon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: O'Fallon, MO
• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• City population: 45,862
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 46,966
• Household income: $124,297
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 538.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 5% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.32%
• Current HPI: 219.7731
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+188.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $298,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $199,900 Public Records
• 2001-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $147,500 Public Records
• 1994-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $103,325 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,402 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.