129 Woodland Dr · Gray, GA 31032

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1960 Est $176k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to 129 Woodland Drive in the heart of Gray, GA! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an inviting open-concept layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy durable and stylish LVP flooring throughout the main living areas, creating a warm and cohesive flow. The spacious kitchen and living area open seamlessly to a covered back porch--ideal for relaxing outdoors or hosting gatherings. The fully fenced backyard provides privacy, safety, and room to play, garden, or unwind. With comfortable bedrooms, modern finishes, and a convenient location close to schools, shopping, and dining, this home is the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Don't miss your chance to make it yours!

Key facts

• Lvp flooring
• Convenient location
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LVP FLOORING
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (1.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.2% in Gray — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#26 in GA, #3,600 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jones County (rural): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #72 of 174 in GA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Turner Woods Elementary School (math 58% / reading 42%, grade D+, #255 of 1,228 statewide, top 21%, 615 students, 49% FRL); Gray Station Middle School (math 33% / reading 40%, grade F, #167 of 470 statewide, top 38%, 653 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 106 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jones County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $180k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.06%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,968
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
129 Woodland Dr	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,128 (0%)	0mo	$165,000	$146	96
251 Autumn Ridge Ct	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,148 (+2%)	2mo	$225,000	$196	81
220 Cedarwood Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,220 (+8%)	21mo	$189,900	$156	61
120 Oakland Dr	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,014 (-10%)	23mo	$184,500	$182	58
232 North St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,240 (+10%)	10mo	$106,000	$85	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-6,255
• Equity at exit: $35,639

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $20,776
• Equity at exit: $31,108

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31032

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,782 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,112/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,491

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-25
   historical Active Under Contract 718-char remark

   Show marketing remark (718 chars)

   Welcome home to 129 Woodland Drive in the heart of Gray, GA! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an inviting open-concept layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy durable and stylish LVP flooring throughout the main living areas, creating a warm and cohesive flow. The spacious kitchen and living area open seamlessly to a covered back porch--ideal for relaxing outdoors or hosting gatherings. The fully fenced backyard provides privacy, safety, and room to play, garden, or unwind. With comfortable bedrooms, modern finishes, and a convenient location close to schools, shopping, and dining, this home is the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Don't miss your chance to make it yours!

2. 2026-04-25
   status Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (718 chars)

   Welcome home to 129 Woodland Drive in the heart of Gray, GA! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an inviting open-concept layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy durable and stylish LVP flooring throughout the main living areas, creating a warm and cohesive flow. The spacious kitchen and living area open seamlessly to a covered back porch--ideal for relaxing outdoors or hosting gatherings. The fully fenced backyard provides privacy, safety, and room to play, garden, or unwind. With comfortable bedrooms, modern finishes, and a convenient location close to schools, shopping, and dining, this home is the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Don't miss your chance to make it yours!

3. 2026-04-09
   price $180,000 718-char remark

   Show marketing remark (718 chars)

   Welcome home to 129 Woodland Drive in the heart of Gray, GA! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an inviting open-concept layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy durable and stylish LVP flooring throughout the main living areas, creating a warm and cohesive flow. The spacious kitchen and living area open seamlessly to a covered back porch--ideal for relaxing outdoors or hosting gatherings. The fully fenced backyard provides privacy, safety, and room to play, garden, or unwind. With comfortable bedrooms, modern finishes, and a convenient location close to schools, shopping, and dining, this home is the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Don't miss your chance to make it yours!

4. 2026-04-09
   price $180,000

   Show marketing remark (718 chars)

   Welcome home to 129 Woodland Drive in the heart of Gray, GA! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an inviting open-concept layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy durable and stylish LVP flooring throughout the main living areas, creating a warm and cohesive flow. The spacious kitchen and living area open seamlessly to a covered back porch--ideal for relaxing outdoors or hosting gatherings. The fully fenced backyard provides privacy, safety, and room to play, garden, or unwind. With comfortable bedrooms, modern finishes, and a convenient location close to schools, shopping, and dining, this home is the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Don't miss your chance to make it yours!

5. 2026-03-19
   price $199,000 718-char remark

   Show marketing remark (718 chars)

   Welcome home to 129 Woodland Drive in the heart of Gray, GA! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an inviting open-concept layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy durable and stylish LVP flooring throughout the main living areas, creating a warm and cohesive flow. The spacious kitchen and living area open seamlessly to a covered back porch--ideal for relaxing outdoors or hosting gatherings. The fully fenced backyard provides privacy, safety, and room to play, garden, or unwind. With comfortable bedrooms, modern finishes, and a convenient location close to schools, shopping, and dining, this home is the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Don't miss your chance to make it yours!

6. 2026-03-19
   price $199,000

   Show marketing remark (718 chars)

   Welcome home to 129 Woodland Drive in the heart of Gray, GA! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an inviting open-concept layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy durable and stylish LVP flooring throughout the main living areas, creating a warm and cohesive flow. The spacious kitchen and living area open seamlessly to a covered back porch--ideal for relaxing outdoors or hosting gatherings. The fully fenced backyard provides privacy, safety, and room to play, garden, or unwind. With comfortable bedrooms, modern finishes, and a convenient location close to schools, shopping, and dining, this home is the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Don't miss your chance to make it yours!

7. 2026-02-24
   listed $205,000 Active 718-char remark

   Show marketing remark (718 chars)

   Welcome home to 129 Woodland Drive in the heart of Gray, GA! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an inviting open-concept layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy durable and stylish LVP flooring throughout the main living areas, creating a warm and cohesive flow. The spacious kitchen and living area open seamlessly to a covered back porch--ideal for relaxing outdoors or hosting gatherings. The fully fenced backyard provides privacy, safety, and room to play, garden, or unwind. With comfortable bedrooms, modern finishes, and a convenient location close to schools, shopping, and dining, this home is the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Don't miss your chance to make it yours!

8. 2026-02-24
   historical

   Show marketing remark (718 chars)

   Welcome home to 129 Woodland Drive in the heart of Gray, GA! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an inviting open-concept layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy durable and stylish LVP flooring throughout the main living areas, creating a warm and cohesive flow. The spacious kitchen and living area open seamlessly to a covered back porch--ideal for relaxing outdoors or hosting gatherings. The fully fenced backyard provides privacy, safety, and room to play, garden, or unwind. With comfortable bedrooms, modern finishes, and a convenient location close to schools, shopping, and dining, this home is the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Don't miss your chance to make it yours!

9. 2026-02-03
   price $209,000
10. 2026-02-03
    price $209,000
11. 2026-01-05
    price $219,000
12. 2026-01-05
    price $219,000
13. 2025-11-18
    listed $205,000 New
14. 2025-11-18
    listed $225,000 New
15. 2019-06-20
    soldstatus $90,000
16. 2019-03-01
    soldstatus $65,500
17. 1999-05-06
    soldstatus $47,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,112 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,656 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$544/yr (+$45/mo · 49.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,389
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$1,112
• − Insurance: −$1,697
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,711
• − Management: −$1,711
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$162
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$39
• After-tax cash flow: $2,800/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jones County
• NCES district ID: 1303150
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,630
• Composite: 28.84/100
• National rank: #6649
• State rank: #72 of 174 in GA

Livability — Gray

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #3600

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gray, GA
• Population (ZIP): 13,755

Population outlook (Jones County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,682 people
• By 2030: 28,394 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 27,246 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,575 · -10.8%
• By 2075: 21,857 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 17,453 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 18% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jones

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 30.8% · R 68.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+28.7 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.92%
• Current HPI: 211.7341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+283.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Contingent — MGMLS
• 2026-04-25 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $180,000 MGMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $180,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $199,000 MGMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $199,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $205,000 MGMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $209,000 MGMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $209,000 GAMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $219,000 MGMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $219,000 GAMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $225,000 GAMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $205,000 GAMLS
• 2019-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $65,500 Public Records
• 1999-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,112 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.