10111 Oberrender Rd · Fairchilds, TX 77461

$190,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,336 sqft · SingleFamily · 218 Days on market

Built 1940 Poor condition 1.00 ac lot $142/sqft · 37% below area Est $300k · 37% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PLEASE NOTE, THE NEW LIST PRICE. The CAD on this property, is listed as 9019 Oberrender however the actual address is 10111 Oberrender. 40+ year Older home that needs repairs but it offers plenty of trees, a well, a septic and older home. hardwood floors, Lots of potential. Please accompany buyers. Caution when entering, house has shifted.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 218 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.2% in Fairchilds — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,450 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Needville ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #95 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 337 active listings in the ZIP; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.33%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,413
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -36.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-18,537
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-287
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77461

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,905 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$238 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,662

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $323	-5% $258	+0% $192	+5% $126	+10% $61
Rent	-10% $41	-5% $117	+0% $192	+5% $267	+10% $342
Rate	-1.0pp $288	-0.5pp $240	base $192	+0.5pp $143	+1.0pp $93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 218 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 217 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 216 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 215 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 213 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 212 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 209 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 208 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active 207 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $190,000 Active 204 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 203 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 202 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 201 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 200 DOM
15. 2026-04-10
    price $190,000 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    PLEASE NOTE, THE NEW LIST PRICE. The CAD on this property, is listed as 9019 Oberrender however the actual address is 10111 Oberrender. 40+ year Older home that needs repairs but it offers plenty of trees, a well, a septic and older home. hardwood floors, Lots of potential. Please accompany buyers. Caution when entering, house has shifted.

16. 2025-11-12
    listed $225,000 Active 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    PLEASE NOTE, THE NEW LIST PRICE. The CAD on this property, is listed as 9019 Oberrender however the actual address is 10111 Oberrender. 40+ year Older home that needs repairs but it offers plenty of trees, a well, a septic and older home. hardwood floors, Lots of potential. Please accompany buyers. Caution when entering, house has shifted.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,860
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,829
• − Management: −$1,829
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$768
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$184
• After-tax cash flow: $2,487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This 40+ year old home requires extensive repairs and updates to become move-in ready. The roof and siding are in poor condition, and the interior walls and flooring need significant work. Landscaping and maintenance are also needed. The highest-ROI updates would be a new roof and siding to improve curb appeal and protect the home.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Exposed roof structure
• Major exterior siding — Weathered siding
• Major interior walls — Peeling paint
• Major flooring — Worn hardwood floors

Value-add opportunities

• Both New roof — Fixes major structural issue and improves curb appeal
• Both New siding — Enhances curb appeal and protects home
• Both Paint interior walls — Improves appearance and can hide damage
• Both Refinish hardwood floors — Enhances appearance and can hide damage

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Exposed roof structure	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Weathered siding	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Peeling paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn hardwood floors	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New roof — Fixes major structural issue and improves curb appeal ↑
• Both New siding — Enhances curb appeal and protects home ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — Improves appearance and can hide damage ↑
• Both Refinish hardwood floors — Enhances appearance and can hide damage ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Needville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832310
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,900
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #2176
• State rank: #95 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fairchilds

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1450
• US rank: #24783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairchilds, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,397

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (50%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 18% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.17%
• Current HPI: 324.3807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $225,000 HARMLS