440 Cr 4190 · Woodville, TX 75979

$150,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily · 269 Days on market

Built 1982 $142/sqft · 118% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don’t miss this 4-bed, 2-bath home on ±0.6 acres just minutes from beautiful Lake Steinhagen! With 1,056 sq ft of living space, this property offers a cozy, functional layout perfect for full-time living or a weekend getaway. The spacious 24x30 two-car garage provides ample room for vehicles, tools, or lake toys. Enjoy peaceful surroundings, mature trees, and plenty of outdoor space for relaxing or entertaining. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, vacation home, or rental investment, this property delivers versatility and value. Country living with lake access nearby—schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Versatile layout
• Outdoor space
• Lake access

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS
• MATURE TREES
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• VERSATILE LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.8% in Woodville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#741 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Woodville ISD (town): math 34% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #563 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 215 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Tyler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tyler County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 269 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 269 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.03%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $68,748
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: 118.19%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.42×
• Total profit: $101,747
• Equity at exit: $135,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.75×
• Total profit: $283,656
• Equity at exit: $291,417

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75979

• Home prices YoY: 20.6%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,514 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $374/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,114

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $401	-5% $358	+0% $316	+5% $274	+10% $231
Rent	-10% $196	-5% $256	+0% $316	+5% $376	+10% $436
Rate	-1.0pp $392	-0.5pp $354	base $316	+0.5pp $277	+1.0pp $238

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $150,000 Pending 269 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 269 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 268 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 267 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 266 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 264 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 261 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 260 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 259 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 258 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 254 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 253 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 252 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 251 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 250 DOM
16. 2025-09-23
    listed $150,000 Active
17. 2025-09-22
    listed $150,000 Active 641-char remark

    Show marketing remark (641 chars)

    Don’t miss this 4-bed, 2-bath home on ±0.6 acres just minutes from beautiful Lake Steinhagen! With 1,056 sq ft of living space, this property offers a cozy, functional layout perfect for full-time living or a weekend getaway. The spacious 24x30 two-car garage provides ample room for vehicles, tools, or lake toys. Enjoy peaceful surroundings, mature trees, and plenty of outdoor space for relaxing or entertaining. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, vacation home, or rental investment, this property delivers versatility and value. Country living with lake access nearby—schedule your private showing today!

18. 2025-09-22
    listed $150,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (641 chars)

    Don’t miss this 4-bed, 2-bath home on ±0.6 acres just minutes from beautiful Lake Steinhagen! With 1,056 sq ft of living space, this property offers a cozy, functional layout perfect for full-time living or a weekend getaway. The spacious 24x30 two-car garage provides ample room for vehicles, tools, or lake toys. Enjoy peaceful surroundings, mature trees, and plenty of outdoor space for relaxing or entertaining. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, vacation home, or rental investment, this property delivers versatility and value. Country living with lake access nearby—schedule your private showing today!

19. 2024-03-25
    soldstatus
20. 1999-12-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $374 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,371/yr (+$198/mo · 634.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,171
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$374
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,454
• − Management: −$1,454
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $1,374
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$330
• After-tax cash flow: $3,462/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Woodville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846440
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $36,581
• Composite: 28.24/100
• National rank: #6800
• State rank: #563 of 826 in TX

Livability — Woodville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #741
• US rank: #13727

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tyler County · 11,273 people
• City population: 11,273
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 11,273
• Household income: $51,594
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 117.0

Population outlook (Tyler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,375 people
• By 2030: 20,036 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 19,150 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 18,017 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 15,300 · -24.9%
• By 2100: 11,702 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 17% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Tyler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.5) · D 13.0% · R 86.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.5pp toward R · 2008: -44.0pp · 2024: -73.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.5 2020: R+70.3 2016: R+67.2 2012: R+55.5 2008: R+44.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 30.40%
• Current HPI: 178.2196
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-23 Listed $150,000 BBOR
• 2025-09-22 Listed $150,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-09-22 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-12-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-12.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $374 · +31.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.