312 Patton Ln · Venus, TX 76084

$312,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,658 sqft · Land · 167 Days on market

Built 2025 4,944 sqft lot $189/sqft · at area comps Est $324k · at est. $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Make a lasting first impression with this beautiful three-bedroom home in Patriot Estates. Designed with entertaining in mind, this home features an open layout with a chef-ready kitchen, a charming dining area, and a spacious family room perfect for gathering with loved ones. Just off the family room is a versatile flex space that can serve as a home office, playroom, or easily be converted into a fourth bedroom. The private master suite offers a spa-like bathroom and a generous walk-in closet for added comfort and convenience. Ideally located right down the road from the neighborhood playground, gazebo, and private community splash pad, this home offers easy access to outdoor fun just steps from your front door. Homeowners in Patriot Estates enjoy a high quality of life with access to outstanding community amenities, excellent schools, major employers, and nearby shopping and dining options.

Key facts

• Private master suite
• Community splash pad
• Chef-ready kitchen

Tags

• CHEF-READY KITCHEN
• PRIVATE MASTER SUITE
• SPA-LIKE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• NEIGHBORHOOD PLAYGROUND
• COMMUNITY SPLASH PAD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $313k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Venus ISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #646 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $225,707 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.39%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,487
• List price: $312,900
• Delta: -3.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $107,482
• Equity at exit: $223,417

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.58×
• Total profit: $313,688
• Equity at exit: $430,493

Cash invested: $87,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,257 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,641
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $915/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,385

Max offer price $294,989

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,225
• Closing costs: $9,387
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
313 Patton Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	7d	1	0.02mi
315 Patton Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,515	$1.16	2d	1	0.04mi
201 John Laurens Dr Venus, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1975	$2,250	$1.14	1d	1	0.26mi
512 Albert Anthony St Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,990	$1.20	22d	1	0.38mi
325 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	2189	$2,325	$1.06	12d	1	0.46mi
147 Sammy Fowler Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,250	$1.33	1d	1	0.53mi
523 Bennie Leonard St Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,350	$1.39	1d	1	0.59mi
201 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.5	1626	$2,195	$1.35	19d	1	0.61mi
358 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,995	$1.20	2d	1	0.62mi
208 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,330	$1.31	11d	1	0.63mi
120 Mt Vernon Ln Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1661	$2,149	$1.29	43d	1	0.66mi
214 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	43d	1	0.67mi
131 Mt Vernon Ln Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,169	$1.31	22d	1	0.69mi
170 Kennedy Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1661	$2,300	$1.38	1d	1	0.70mi
101 Hancock St Venus, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$1,929	$1.09	1d	1	0.70mi
418 Watson Ct Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,210	$1.60	43d	1	0.70mi
427 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,965	$1.61	43d	1	0.76mi
430 Gib Woodall Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,000	$1.45	3d	1	0.76mi
428 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,150	$1.21	24d	1	0.77mi
501 Gib Woodall Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,945	$1.60	43d	1	0.79mi
108 Rushmore Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$1,969	$1.19	24d	1	0.82mi
112 Liberty Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$2,309	$1.39	43d	1	0.97mi
135 Houston Pl Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,029	$1.28	1d	1	0.99mi
628 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	1483	$2,200	$1.48	1d	1	1.01mi
645 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,950	$1.43	43d	1	1.02mi
640-644 Wheatfield DR Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1926	$2,100	$1.09	1d	1	1.04mi
721 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	2.0	1.5	1134	$1,595	$1.41	1d	1	1.05mi
728 Fallow Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,795	$1.33	15d	1	1.05mi
656-660 Wheatfield DR Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,950	$1.50	1d	1	1.06mi
663 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	2.0	2.0	1274	$1,695	$1.33	1d	1	1.07mi
645 Fallow Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,950	$1.50	7d	1	1.08mi
705 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	2.0	1.5	1134	$1,500	$1.32	24d	1	1.09mi
601 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,795	$1.33	43d	1	1.09mi
720 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	1926	$2,200	$1.14	7d	1	1.09mi
723 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	2.0	2.0	1274	$1,695	$1.33	43d	1	1.10mi
620-616 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,950	$1.49	43d	1	1.12mi
733 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,795	$1.33	24d	1	1.12mi
737 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	2.0	1.5	1134	$1,595	$1.41	24d	1	1.13mi
729 Fallow Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,995	$1.53	43d	1	1.14mi
748 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,950	$1.43	43d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $312,900 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $312,900 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $312,900 Active 165 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $312,900 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $312,900 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $312,900 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $312,900 Active 158 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $312,900 Active 157 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $312,900 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $312,900 Active 153 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $312,900 Active 152 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $312,900 Active 151 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $312,900 Active 150 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $312,900 Active 149 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    price $312,900 906-char remark

    Show marketing remark (906 chars)

    Make a lasting first impression with this beautiful three-bedroom home in Patriot Estates. Designed with entertaining in mind, this home features an open layout with a chef-ready kitchen, a charming dining area, and a spacious family room perfect for gathering with loved ones. Just off the family room is a versatile flex space that can serve as a home office, playroom, or easily be converted into a fourth bedroom. The private master suite offers a spa-like bathroom and a generous walk-in closet for added comfort and convenience. Ideally located right down the road from the neighborhood playground, gazebo, and private community splash pad, this home offers easy access to outdoor fun just steps from your front door. Homeowners in Patriot Estates enjoy a high quality of life with access to outstanding community amenities, excellent schools, major employers, and nearby shopping and dining options.

16. 2026-03-06
    price $316,900 906-char remark

    Show marketing remark (906 chars)

    Make a lasting first impression with this beautiful three-bedroom home in Patriot Estates. Designed with entertaining in mind, this home features an open layout with a chef-ready kitchen, a charming dining area, and a spacious family room perfect for gathering with loved ones. Just off the family room is a versatile flex space that can serve as a home office, playroom, or easily be converted into a fourth bedroom. The private master suite offers a spa-like bathroom and a generous walk-in closet for added comfort and convenience. Ideally located right down the road from the neighborhood playground, gazebo, and private community splash pad, this home offers easy access to outdoor fun just steps from your front door. Homeowners in Patriot Estates enjoy a high quality of life with access to outstanding community amenities, excellent schools, major employers, and nearby shopping and dining options.

17. 2026-01-20
    price $320,900 906-char remark

    Show marketing remark (906 chars)

    Make a lasting first impression with this beautiful three-bedroom home in Patriot Estates. Designed with entertaining in mind, this home features an open layout with a chef-ready kitchen, a charming dining area, and a spacious family room perfect for gathering with loved ones. Just off the family room is a versatile flex space that can serve as a home office, playroom, or easily be converted into a fourth bedroom. The private master suite offers a spa-like bathroom and a generous walk-in closet for added comfort and convenience. Ideally located right down the road from the neighborhood playground, gazebo, and private community splash pad, this home offers easy access to outdoor fun just steps from your front door. Homeowners in Patriot Estates enjoy a high quality of life with access to outstanding community amenities, excellent schools, major employers, and nearby shopping and dining options.

18. 2026-01-02
    listed $325,900 Active 906-char remark

    Show marketing remark (906 chars)

    Make a lasting first impression with this beautiful three-bedroom home in Patriot Estates. Designed with entertaining in mind, this home features an open layout with a chef-ready kitchen, a charming dining area, and a spacious family room perfect for gathering with loved ones. Just off the family room is a versatile flex space that can serve as a home office, playroom, or easily be converted into a fourth bedroom. The private master suite offers a spa-like bathroom and a generous walk-in closet for added comfort and convenience. Ideally located right down the road from the neighborhood playground, gazebo, and private community splash pad, this home offers easy access to outdoor fun just steps from your front door. Homeowners in Patriot Estates enjoy a high quality of life with access to outstanding community amenities, excellent schools, major employers, and nearby shopping and dining options.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $915 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,726 · $477/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,811/yr (+$401/mo · 526.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,085
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,527
• − Property taxes: −$915
• − Insurance: −$1,564
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,167
• − Management: −$2,167
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$9,103
• Taxable loss: −$6,802
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,632
• After-tax cash flow: $416/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Venus ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844010
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,394
• Composite: 24.97/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #646 of 826 in TX

Livability — Venus

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #356
• US rank: #7724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Venus, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $312,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $316,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $320,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $325,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+21.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $915 · +21.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.