164 Sycamore Pnes · Mountain City, TX 78640

$274,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,592 sqft · SingleFamily · 171 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 3,571 sqft lot $173/sqft · 10% below area Est $304k · 10% under $115/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Now offered at $274,990, a compelling value from its original price of $298,490. This spacious two-story plan offers three bedrooms and two and one-half bathrooms, with an open-concept design that creates a seamless flow between the great room, kitchen and dining area. The primary suite features a luxurious bath and walk-in closet, while the additional bedrooms and flexible space provide versatility for any lifestyle.

Key facts

• 3,571 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $275k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-239 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in Mountain City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#585 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1819 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $224,836 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.73%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,332
• List price: $274,990
• Delta: -9.64%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
156 Sycamore Pnes	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,592 (0%)	2mo	$274,990	$173	98
132 Sycamore Pnes	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,592 (0%)	2mo	$273,990	$172	98
116 Sycamore Pines Ln	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,776 (+12%)	2mo	$281,990	$159	79
148 Sycamore Pnes	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,776 (+12%)	2mo	$287,990	$162	78
131 Sincere Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,774 (+11%)	3mo	$329,990	$186	67
208 Golden Gate Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,738 (+9%)	1mo	$325,000	$187	58
254 Brave St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,482 (-7%)	0mo	$294,000	$198	57
210 Grand Teton Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,452 (-9%)	1mo	$339,500	$234	55
251 Revere Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-10%)	0mo	$286,000	$200	50
130 Spangle Way	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-10%)	4mo	$299,000	$209	43
161 Spangle Way	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,378 (-13%)	2mo	$299,900	$218	36
230 Revere Dr	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,378 (-13%)	4mo	$275,000	$200	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-66,279
• Equity at exit: $41,002

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-102,370
• Equity at exit: $23,776

Cash invested: $76,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1819
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,248 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$115
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,551

Max offer price $240,379

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-49	-5% $-144	+0% $-239	+5% $-334	+10% $-429
Rent	-10% $-417	-5% $-328	+0% $-239	+5% $-150	+10% $-62
Rate	-1.0pp $-101	-0.5pp $-169	base $-239	+0.5pp $-310	+1.0pp $-383

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,748
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
161 Sycamore Pines Ln Mountain City, TX	4.0	2.5	2018	$2,300	$1.14	18d	1	0.04mi
412 Smithsonian Ln Kyle, TX	4.0	3.0	1902	$2,650	$1.39	44d	1	0.60mi
412 Smithsonian Ln Unit NA Kyle, TX	4.0	3.0	1902	$2,650	$1.39	24d	1	0.60mi
196 Spangle Way Kyle, TX	3.0	3.0	1834	$2,100	$1.15	44d	1	0.70mi
309 Juniper Dr Mountain City, TX	4.0	2.0	2199	$2,799	$1.27	18d	1	0.82mi
252 Patagonia Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1434	$2,000	$1.39	5d	1	1.30mi
115 Parsons Kyle, TX	4.0	3.0	1969	$2,249	$1.14	11d	1	1.31mi
889 Powell St Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1882	$2,249	$1.20	3d	1	1.36mi
905 Powell St Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1879	$2,300	$1.22	18d	1	1.36mi
216 Jeffers Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,095	$1.29	24d	1	1.37mi
220 Barcelona Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,200	$1.24	4d	1	1.38mi
3305 Everett Kyle, TX	4.0	3.0	1913	$2,399	$1.25	44d	1	1.40mi
250 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,899	$1.49	13d	1	1.41mi
397 Keefer Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,850	$1.28	3d	1	1.43mi
500 Jack Ryan Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1622	$2,200	$1.36	18d	1	1.43mi
139 Madrid Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1914	$2,350	$1.23	5d	1	1.44mi
373 Jeffers Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2035	$2,190	$1.08	44d	1	1.45mi
201 Edwin Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1333	$1,950	$1.46	17d	1	1.49mi
167 Rioja Unit (Main House) Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1569	$1,900	$1.21	5d	1	1.49mi
167 Rioja Kyle, TX	3.0	3.0	1569	$2,300	$1.47	44d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $115 · $1,380/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-01
   price $274,990 421-char remark

   Show marketing remark (421 chars)

   Now offered at $274,990, a compelling value from its original price of $298,490. This spacious two-story plan offers three bedrooms and two and one-half bathrooms, with an open-concept design that creates a seamless flow between the great room, kitchen and dining area. The primary suite features a luxurious bath and walk-in closet, while the additional bedrooms and flexible space provide versatility for any lifestyle.

2. 2026-03-12
   price $269,990 421-char remark

   Show marketing remark (421 chars)

   Now offered at $274,990, a compelling value from its original price of $298,490. This spacious two-story plan offers three bedrooms and two and one-half bathrooms, with an open-concept design that creates a seamless flow between the great room, kitchen and dining area. The primary suite features a luxurious bath and walk-in closet, while the additional bedrooms and flexible space provide versatility for any lifestyle.

3. 2026-03-04
   price $274,990 421-char remark

   Show marketing remark (421 chars)

   Now offered at $274,990, a compelling value from its original price of $298,490. This spacious two-story plan offers three bedrooms and two and one-half bathrooms, with an open-concept design that creates a seamless flow between the great room, kitchen and dining area. The primary suite features a luxurious bath and walk-in closet, while the additional bedrooms and flexible space provide versatility for any lifestyle.

4. 2026-02-25
   price $283,490 421-char remark

   Show marketing remark (421 chars)

   Now offered at $274,990, a compelling value from its original price of $298,490. This spacious two-story plan offers three bedrooms and two and one-half bathrooms, with an open-concept design that creates a seamless flow between the great room, kitchen and dining area. The primary suite features a luxurious bath and walk-in closet, while the additional bedrooms and flexible space provide versatility for any lifestyle.

5. 2026-02-18
   price $288,490 421-char remark

   Show marketing remark (421 chars)

   Now offered at $274,990, a compelling value from its original price of $298,490. This spacious two-story plan offers three bedrooms and two and one-half bathrooms, with an open-concept design that creates a seamless flow between the great room, kitchen and dining area. The primary suite features a luxurious bath and walk-in closet, while the additional bedrooms and flexible space provide versatility for any lifestyle.

6. 2026-01-14
   price $293,490 421-char remark

   Show marketing remark (421 chars)

   Now offered at $274,990, a compelling value from its original price of $298,490. This spacious two-story plan offers three bedrooms and two and one-half bathrooms, with an open-concept design that creates a seamless flow between the great room, kitchen and dining area. The primary suite features a luxurious bath and walk-in closet, while the additional bedrooms and flexible space provide versatility for any lifestyle.

7. 2026-01-07
   price $289,990 421-char remark

   Show marketing remark (421 chars)

   Now offered at $274,990, a compelling value from its original price of $298,490. This spacious two-story plan offers three bedrooms and two and one-half bathrooms, with an open-concept design that creates a seamless flow between the great room, kitchen and dining area. The primary suite features a luxurious bath and walk-in closet, while the additional bedrooms and flexible space provide versatility for any lifestyle.

8. 2026-01-07
   price $293,490 421-char remark

   Show marketing remark (421 chars)

   Now offered at $274,990, a compelling value from its original price of $298,490. This spacious two-story plan offers three bedrooms and two and one-half bathrooms, with an open-concept design that creates a seamless flow between the great room, kitchen and dining area. The primary suite features a luxurious bath and walk-in closet, while the additional bedrooms and flexible space provide versatility for any lifestyle.

9. 2025-12-04
   listed $289,990 Active 421-char remark

   Show marketing remark (421 chars)

   Now offered at $274,990, a compelling value from its original price of $298,490. This spacious two-story plan offers three bedrooms and two and one-half bathrooms, with an open-concept design that creates a seamless flow between the great room, kitchen and dining area. The primary suite features a luxurious bath and walk-in closet, while the additional bedrooms and flexible space provide versatility for any lifestyle.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,980
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,125
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,158
• − Management: −$2,158
• − HOA: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$7,620
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,829
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,042/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with a good curb appeal and interior. It offers a good investment opportunity with minor updates that can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mountain City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #585
• US rank: #11154

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $274,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $269,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $274,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $283,490 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $288,490 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $293,490 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $289,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $293,490 Unlock MLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $289,990 Unlock MLS