5626 Morongo Rd · Twentynine Palms, CA 92277

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,393 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 2008 8,557 sqft lot Est $295k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

D Webb home with the quality you expect and the energy efficiency you need. Wonderful open floor plan, off center oversized tiled flooring. .very custom. Stainless appliances, 2x6 const, covered patio AND priced just right! The vista across the way is expansive! Has carpet. Finished parking.

Key facts

• Backyard
• Covered patio
• Tile flooring

Tags

• LARGE MATURE SHADE TREE
• SPACIOUS OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• TILE FLOORING
• COVERED PATIO
• BACKYARD
• WOOD PRIVACY FENCING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is a single-unit residence; No accessory dwelling unit (ADU)
• HOA & community: Rural community with hiking access and proximity to BLM/National Forest

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two garage spaces (two total parking spaces)
• Utilities: District/public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: House; Single-story (1 total story); No common walls; Has a view; Entry on main level
• Construction: Year built per public records; Living area and lot size per assessor's data
• Exterior features: Desert front and desert back landscaping; Front yard; Back yard; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms (including primary bedroom)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Central and evaporative cooling
• Interior features: One-story entry level; Main level has three bedrooms and two bathrooms; Primary bedroom and primary bathroom; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry available (details in remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($-4/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (0.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.1% in Twentynine Palms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#622 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment D-, health & safety F.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Oasis Elementary (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #1,511 of 1,571 statewide, top 98%, 491 students, 78% FRL); Twentynine Palms Junior High (math 17% / reading 39%, grade F, #236 of 498 statewide, top 48%, 413 students, 63% FRL); Twentynine Palms High (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #389 of 1,170 statewide, top 35%, 729 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 751 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,005 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $295,316
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5616 Cahuilla Ave	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,405 (+1%)	4mo	$305,000	$217	84
5564 Mariposa	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-9%)	4mo	$284,000	$224	77
5464 Mariposa	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,293 (-7%)	6mo	$235,000	$182	73
5837 La Luna Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-0%)	5mo	$370,000	$267	72
5753 La Luna	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,358 (-2%)	4mo	$278,100	$205	71
5474 Cahuilla Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,238 (-11%)	1mo	$295,000	$238	70
72244 Sunnyslope Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-6%)	3mo	$357,500	$272	69
5304 Morongo Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+6%)	6mo	$259,000	$176	67
72400 El Paseo Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-0%)	5mo	$227,500	$164	64
72183 Sunnyvale	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,254 (-10%)	4mo	$230,000	$183	58
72337 El Paseo	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,464 (+5%)	2mo	$155,500	$106	58
5353 Encelia Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+10%)	2mo	$325,000	$212	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-33,672
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-17,478
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92277

• Home prices YoY: -3.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 751
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,900 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,732/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-0

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,900

Max offer price $224,946

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $127	-5% $63	+0% $0	+5% $-64	+10% $-128
Rent	-10% $-150	-5% $-75	+0% $0	+5% $75	+10% $150
Rate	-1.0pp $113	-0.5pp $57	base $0	+0.5pp $-59	+1.0pp $-118

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5415 Lupine Ave Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,400	$1.70	45d	1	0.31mi
72256 Sunnyslope Dr Twentynine Palms, CA	2.0	1.0	896	$1,350	$1.51	14d	1	0.42mi
5575 Encelia Dr Unit 29 Twentynine Palms, CA	4.0	2.5	1496	$2,095	$1.40	3d	1	0.46mi
72211 Sunnyvale Dr Twentynine Palms, CA	2.0	1.0	998	$1,500	$1.50	5d	1	0.48mi
72255 Sunnyvale Dr Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	1.5	1187	$1,600	$1.35	26d	1	0.50mi
71745 Sunnyslope Dr Twentynine Palms, CA	2.0	2.0	912	$1,600	$1.75	45d	1	0.56mi
5995 Encelia Dr Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	2.0	1235	$2,499	$2.02	6d	1	0.65mi
72440 Sun Valley Dr Unit 29 Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	2.0	1224	$2,100	$1.72	1d	1	0.66mi
72548 Sunnyslope Dr Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	2.0	1647	$2,150	$1.31	6d	1	0.68mi
6182 Mojave Ave Twentynine Palms, CA	2.0	1.0	998	$1,300	$1.30	26d	1	0.70mi
71593 Sunflower Dr Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,995	$1.52	14d	1	0.79mi
5930 Regino Ave Unit 29 Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,700	$1.29	7d	1	0.84mi
72949 Siesta Dr Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	1.5	1380	$2,350	$1.70	5d	1	1.12mi
6627 Cahuilla Ave Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	2.0	1134	$2,100	$1.85	16d	1	1.24mi
6547 49 Palms Ave Twentynine Palms, CA	2.0	1.0	951	$1,350	$1.42	7d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-17
    listed $225,000 Active
17. 2009-03-10
    soldstatus $155,000 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    D Webb home with the quality you expect and the energy efficiency you need. Wonderful open floor plan, off center oversized tiled flooring. .very custom. Stainless appliances, 2x6 const, covered patio AND priced just right! The vista across the way is expansive! Has carpet. Finished parking.

18. 2009-03-10
    soldstatus $155,000

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    D Webb home with the quality you expect and the energy efficiency you need. Wonderful open floor plan, off center oversized tiled flooring. .very custom. Stainless appliances, 2x6 const, covered patio AND priced just right! The vista across the way is expansive! Has carpet. Finished parking.

19. 2009-02-20
    historical 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    D Webb home with the quality you expect and the energy efficiency you need. Wonderful open floor plan, off center oversized tiled flooring. .very custom. Stainless appliances, 2x6 const, covered patio AND priced just right! The vista across the way is expansive! Has carpet. Finished parking.

20. 2008-07-22
    listed $179,900 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    D Webb home with the quality you expect and the energy efficiency you need. Wonderful open floor plan, off center oversized tiled flooring. .very custom. Stainless appliances, 2x6 const, covered patio AND priced just right! The vista across the way is expansive! Has carpet. Finished parking.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,732 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,732 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,801
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,732
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,824
• − Management: −$1,824
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,854
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$925
• After-tax cash flow: $921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morongo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625860
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,399
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8156
• State rank: #395 of 517 in CA

Livability — Twentynine Palms

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #622
• US rank: #19731

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Twentynine Palms, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 26,277
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 26,277
• Household income: $60,901
• Rent vs Own: 56.7% rent · 43.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1057.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Two or more races 24% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 9% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.15%
• Current HPI: 380.5083
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.45%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+25.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $225,000 CRMLS
• 2009-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2009-03-10 Sold (MLS) $155,000 CRMLS
• 2009-02-20 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2008-07-22 Listed $179,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+17.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,732 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.