2311 Niagara St · Buffalo, NY 14207

$124,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,573 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1900 5,227 sqft lot Est $116k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• ARV discount +4.2/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to own a home with a river view! This single family home has a large kitchen, living room and dining room with high ceilings. This home has a clean basement and a fenced backyard with garage. This home has tons of potential! House needs work.

Key facts

• Fully renovated home
• Renovated kitchen
• Private yard

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED HOME
• UPDATED INTERIOR
• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE YARD
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Approximately 1.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Metal roof
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Stone foundation; Existing (previously built) structure
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Concrete driveway; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 33 x 120

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Tile; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($40k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $125k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $124,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.53%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $116,402
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38 Heward Ave	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,474 (-6%)	1mo	$256,000	$174	76
476 East St	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,618 (+3%)	6mo	$100,000	$62	70
44 Gallatin Ave	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (-3%)	5mo	$149,000	$97	64
907 Tonawanda St	0.46mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,639 (+4%)	8mo	$110,000	$67	60
68 Riverside Ave	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,624 (+3%)	10mo	$120,000	$74	59
103 Austin St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,600 (+2%)	4mo	$75,000	$47	58
350 East St	0.47mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,752 (+11%)	3mo	$110,000	$63	52
61 Mayer Ave	0.43mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,408 (-10%)	7mo	$210,000	$149	52
136 Crowley Ave	0.52mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,394 (-11%)	2mo	$100,000	$72	50
111 Gorton St	0.71mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,508 (-4%)	6mo	$164,900	$109	50
5 Copeland Pl	0.36mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,780 (+13%)	7mo	$70,000	$39	50
191 Crowley Ave	0.55mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,408 (-10%)	8mo	$170,000	$121	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $10,385
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $72,559
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14207

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,405 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $449/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $942

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $436	-5% $400	+0% $365	+5% $330	+10% $294
Rent	-10% $254	-5% $310	+0% $365	+5% $421	+10% $476
Rate	-1.0pp $428	-0.5pp $397	base $365	+0.5pp $333	+1.0pp $300

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
118 Rano St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	22d	1	0.48mi
158 Chadduck Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	24d	1	0.67mi
61 Baxter St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2014	$1,400	$0.70	2d	1	0.78mi
78 Germain St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2030	$1,300	$0.64	15d	1	1.09mi
62 Germain St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1320	$1,250	$0.95	24d	1	1.12mi
62 Seabrook St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	2d	1	1.28mi
52 Greeley St Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1804	$1,000	$0.55	24d	1	1.30mi
100 Forest Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0–4.0	2.0–4.0	1304	$1,600	$1.23	2d	14	1.44mi
293 Grote St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	817	$2,345	$2.87	2d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $124,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $449 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,280 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$831/yr (+$69/mo · 185.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,854
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$449
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,348
• − Management: −$1,348
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $2,454
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$589
• After-tax cash flow: $3,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,327
• Household income: $39,753
• Rent vs Own: 65.0% rent · 35.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2177.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 16% Asian 15% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 18% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 1% Arab 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.42%
• Current HPI: 233.0902
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+362.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $124,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-17 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $123,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $139,999 WNYREIS
• 2024-11-08 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-11-04 Sold (MLS) $67,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records
• 2024-09-30 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2024-08-23 Price Changed $66,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-08-05 Price Changed $72,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-07-14 Price Changed $75,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-06-20 Price Changed $79,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-05-21 Listed $84,900 WNYREIS
• 2007-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $449 · +31.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.