15623 Red Pine Ridge Way · Houston, TX 77049

$264,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,542 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2005 4,207 sqft lot Est $262k · at est. $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 4 Bedroom home sits in the quiet and well maintained community of Liberty Lakes. Located near major banks, credit unions, Wal-Mart, Kroger, Best Buy, Marshall, Lowes, Starbucks, Pet Smart and much more. Home has Master Bedroom on 1st floor, 3 Bedrooms and XL game room up. Security system w CAMERA's will remain. Homeowners have convenient access to Gene Green(GOLD Park). Where you can enjoy walking trails, the water park, tennis & basketball courts, baseball, skate boarding & dog parks.

Key facts

• Walking trails
• 4,207 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• WALKING TRAILS
• TENNIS AND BASKETBALL COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Tax information not included per instructions
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Association managed by VanMor Properties, Inc.; Association fee $420 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Built in 2005; Entry level not specified; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Lot approximately 4,208 square feet

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen details not provided
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specified
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Seller disclosure available
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-275 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Sheldon ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #746 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Michael R Null Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 1,164 students, 89% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 72% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 157 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,332 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.45%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $261,826
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6802 Oleander Grove Way	0.03mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,495 (-2%)	14mo	$279,900	$112	79
6723 Green Pear Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,669 (+5%)	6mo	$309,900	$116	77
15543 Liberty Cypress Ct	0.24mi	3/2.5	2,466 (-3%)	15mo	$244,000	$99	72
6551 Providence View Ln	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,658 (+5%)	13mo	$200,000	$75	68
15503 Broken Cypress Cir	0.10mi	3/2.5	2,210 (-13%)	6mo	$200,000	$90	68
7247 Liberty Mesa Ln	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,472 (-3%)	3mo	$255,000	$103	59
7255 Liberty Mesa Ln	0.62mi	3/2.5	2,460 (-3%)	9mo	$255,000	$104	58
7106 Liberty Creek Trl	0.42mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,801 (+10%)	2mo	$290,000	$104	57
7130 Hollow Cedar Dr	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,260 (-11%)	3mo	$265,000	$117	52
15607 Granite Mountain Trl	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,698 (+6%)	1mo	$265,000	$98	51
7015 Falling Cherry Pl	0.30mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,901 (+14%)	13mo	$228,900	$79	47
6614 Surrey Meadow Ct	0.44mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,815 (+11%)	12mo	$272,000	$97	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.2% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-46,494
• Equity at exit: $61,358

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-69,430
• Equity at exit: $62,252

Cash invested: $74,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77049

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,325 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax from tax record: −$577 /mo · $6,928/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $-275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,673

Max offer price $216,332

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,225
• Closing costs: $7,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15522 Noble Brook Ct Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	3194	$2,575	$0.81	3d	1	0.10mi
7934 Round Rock Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1986	$2,100	$1.06	44d	1	1.14mi
14718 Black Rail Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2150	$2,900	$1.35	44d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 394-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $264,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,928 · $577/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,928 · $577/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,903
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,839
• − Property taxes: −$6,928
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,232
• − Management: −$2,232
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$7,706
• Taxable loss: −$7,779
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,867
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,432/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sheldon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,443
• Composite: 19.5/100
• National rank: #8772
• State rank: #746 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,418
• Household income: $62,971
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 993.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 32% Black 19% White 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 43% English-only · Spanish 54% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Current HPI: 248.1111
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+165.2% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $264,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-04 Price Changed $264,900 HARMLS
• 2024-09-19 Listed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2023-06-21 Rental Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-03-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-03-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-02-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-01-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-01-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-12-17 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2013-12-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-10-28 Price Changed $126,500 HARMLS
• 2013-10-21 Listed $132,900 HARMLS
• 2012-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-12-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2011-11-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-08-20 Listed $99,900 HARMLS
• 2007-10-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,928 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.