9422 Little Skyline Dr · Orange, VA 22960

$79,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1940 1.40 ac lot $53/sqft · 73% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Attention Investors or Builders! Rare Opportunity to Reimagine or Rebuild on 1.40 Acres. This 3-Level Craftsman Offers Tremendous Potential for Renovation or a Complete Tear Down. Ideal for Those Seeking a Project with Strong Upside in a Desirable Setting. Bring Your Vision and Transform this Spacious Property into Something Exceptional. Endless Possibilities for Investors, Builders, or Buyers Looking to Create their Dream Home. Property Being Sold As-Is.

Key facts

• 3-level craftsman
• 1.40 acres
• Desirable setting

Tags

• 1.40 ACRES
• 3-LEVEL CRAFTSMAN
• SPACIOUS PROPERTY
• DESIRABLE SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; About 500 sq ft below grade (unfinished); Above-grade finished area approximately 1,504 (estimated)

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Well water; Private septic tank
• Home design: Detached structure; Mountain location; Outside city limits
• Construction: Built using Masonite, rock, stick-built framing, and wood siding; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Double-hung wood-frame windows with screens
• Exterior features: Stone retaining walls; Additional lot(s); Backs to trees; Rear yard; Side yards; Sloping lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Wood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (all upper levels)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating with forced air; Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning (electric); Hot water via bottled gas/propane
• Interior features: Attic; Six-panel doors; Drywall, plaster, and wood walls

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.5% vs local median 3.9% in Orange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#151 in VA, #4,842 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, cost of living A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities D.
• Orange County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #71 of 131 in VA (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Orange Elementary (math 44% / reading 64%, grade C, #683 of 1,108 statewide, top 62%, 649 students, 61% FRL); Prospect Heights Middle (math 43% / reading 63%, grade C+, #213 of 342 statewide, top 63%, 456 students, 68% FRL); Orange County High (math 61% / reading 72%, grade B, #195 of 319 statewide, top 62%, 1,476 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 34% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 412 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.02%
• DSCR: 4.20
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,088
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -72.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9422 Little Skyline Dr	0.00mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,504 (0%)	1mo	$74,900	$50	90

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 71.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.24×
• Total profit: $72,583
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 75.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.75×
• Total profit: $173,372
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22960

• Home prices YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,351 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $746/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $1,343

Break-even live

Break-even rent $651

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,388	-5% $1,365	+0% $1,343	+5% $1,320	+10% $1,297
Rent	-10% $1,157	-5% $1,250	+0% $1,343	+5% $1,436	+10% $1,528
Rate	-1.0pp $1,383	-0.5pp $1,363	base $1,343	+0.5pp $1,322	+1.0pp $1,301

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
615 Clover Ln Orange, VA	4.0	2.0	1790	$2,850	$1.59	7d	1	1.24mi
109 Oakbrook Dr Orange, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	963	$1,586	$1.65	0d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-13
   price $79,900 459-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   price $84,900 459-char remark
3. 2026-04-22
   listed $89,900 Active 459-char remark
4. 2025-10-30
   price $112,500
5. 2025-10-20
   listed $115,000 Active
6. 2025-10-02
   historical
7. 2025-10-02
   listed $115,000 Active
8. 2025-09-25
   status Active
9. 2025-05-19
   status Pending
10. 2025-05-15
    status Active
11. 2025-05-06
    status Pending
12. 2025-05-05
    historical
13. 2025-05-01
    price $115,000
14. 2025-04-17
    listed $117,500 Active
15. 2004-01-09
    soldstatus $36,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $746 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $746 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$746
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,257
• − Management: −$2,257
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $15,751
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,780
• After-tax cash flow: $12,332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102820
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $61,086
• Composite: 48.34/100
• National rank: #2147
• State rank: #71 of 131 in VA

Livability — Orange

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #151
• US rank: #4842

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,877

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,758 people
• By 2030: 40,411 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 43,477 · +12.2%
• By 2050: 45,856 · +18.3%
• By 2075: 51,067 · +31.8%
• By 2100: 51,387 · +32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 17% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.2% · R 61.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+21.4 2016: R+26.6 2012: R+14.5 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.60%
• Current HPI: 350.4024
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+104.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) $74,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-23 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $79,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $84,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $89,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $112,500 HRAR
• 2025-10-20 Listed $115,000 HRAR
• 2025-10-02 Listed $115,000 HRAR
• 2025-10-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-25 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-19 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-15 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-06 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $115,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-17 Listed $117,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $36,700 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $746 · +18.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.