286 Hillcrest Circle Dr · Jackson, TN 38301

$155,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,314 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 160 Days on market

Built 1952 0.71 ac lot Est $142k · 10% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• ARV discount +3.1/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this Charming 2-Bed, 2-Bed with Timeless Character and Modern Potential, thoughtfully updated to meet todays needs. Discover the charm of this 1952 home. This residence offers a unique blend of historic detail and significant potential. The generous front and backyard provide ample space for both relaxation and personalization. Create your perfect garden or entertainment zone. A valuable bonus space awaits your vision-ideal for a cozy den, a functional home office, or a play area. Includes a convenient carport, adding ease to your daily routine. Give us a call today for your private showing. 731-668-7700

Key facts

• Bonus space
• Historic detail
• Convenient carport

Tags

• HISTORIC DETAIL
• GENEROUS FRONT AND BACKYARD
• BONUS SPACE
• CONVENIENT CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.71 acres (about 101 x 323 irregular); Living area reported as 1,314 (owner) — above-grade finished area reported as 1,314

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking; Driveway parking; On-street parking; 2 covered spaces; 2 carport spaces; 4 open parking spaces (6 total)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available; Water service available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven, Gas range, Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level); Bedroom sizes approximately 7 x 11 and 3 x 8
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Gas oven, Gas range, Refrigerator; Carpet and laminate flooring; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $156k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $93 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.5% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#216 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Madison County (urban): math 10% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #131 of 139 in TN (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rose Hill School (math 4% / reading 7%, grade F, #890 of 952 statewide, top 94%, 497 students, 0% FRL); Liberty Technology Magnet High School (math 2% / reading 13%, grade F, #290 of 332 statewide, top 87%, 549 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 68% district-wide (68 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 247 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,248 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.56%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $141,912
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
59 Hillcrest Circle Dr	0.12mi	2/1.0	1,244 (-5%)	12mo	$133,900	$108	76
1782 E Chester St	0.44mi	2/1.0	1,280 (-3%)	1mo	$60,000	$47	74
60 Altamont Dr	0.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,215 (-8%)	4mo	$55,000	$45	62
78 Dairy St	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,196 (-9%)	20mo	$150,000	$125	57
163 Cartmell St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,277 (-3%)	9mo	$215,000	$168	48
155 Cartmell St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (+3%)	9mo	$250,000	$185	47
1771 E Chester St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,196 (-9%)	21mo	$145,000	$121	42
47 Regency Dr	0.68mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,156 (-12%)	15mo	$100,000	$87	28
142 Phillips St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,160 (-12%)	23mo	$99,900	$86	20
203 Phillips St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (+14%)	19mo	$135,000	$90	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-16,530
• Equity at exit: $23,245

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $5,310
• Equity at exit: $13,479

Cash invested: $43,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38301

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,282 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$818
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $452/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,165

Max offer price $155,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $181	-5% $137	+0% $93	+5% $49	+10% $5
Rent	-10% $-8	-5% $42	+0% $93	+5% $144	+10% $194
Rate	-1.0pp $171	-0.5pp $133	base $93	+0.5pp $53	+1.0pp $11

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,975
• Closing costs: $4,677
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-23
   days on market $155,900 Active 160 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $155,900 Active 159 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $155,900 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,900 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,900 Active 155 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,900 Active 154 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,900 Active 153 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,900 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,900 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $155,900 Active 148 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $155,900 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,900 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,900 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,900 Active 142 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,900 Active 141 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,900 Active 140 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,900 Active 139 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,900 Active 138 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,900 Active 137 DOM
20. 2026-01-13
    listed $155,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    Come check out this Charming 2-Bed, 2-Bed with Timeless Character and Modern Potential, thoughtfully updated to meet todays needs. Discover the charm of this 1952 home. This residence offers a unique blend of historic detail and significant potential. The generous front and backyard provide ample space for both relaxation and personalization. Create your perfect garden or entertainment zone. A valuable bonus space awaits your vision-ideal for a cozy den, a functional home office, or a play area. Includes a convenient carport, adding ease to your daily routine. Give us a call today for your private showing. 731-668-7700

21. 2026-01-13
    listed $155,900 Active 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    Come check out this Charming 2-Bed, 2-Bed with Timeless Character and Modern Potential, thoughtfully updated to meet todays needs. Discover the charm of this 1952 home. This residence offers a unique blend of historic detail and significant potential. The generous front and backyard provide ample space for both relaxation and personalization. Create your perfect garden or entertainment zone. A valuable bonus space awaits your vision-ideal for a cozy den, a functional home office, or a play area. Includes a convenient carport, adding ease to your daily routine. Give us a call today for your private showing. 731-668-7700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $452 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,107 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$655/yr (+$55/mo · 144.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,390
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,733
• − Property taxes: −$452
• − Insurance: −$780
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,231
• − Management: −$1,231
• − Depreciation: −$4,535
• Taxable loss: −$1,572
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$377
• After-tax cash flow: $1,493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County
• NCES district ID: 4702580
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,015
• Composite: 11.74/100
• National rank: #9687
• State rank: #131 of 139 in TN

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #16488

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, TN
• County: Madison County · 87,024 people
• City population: 87,024
• Metro: Jackson, TN
• Population (ZIP): 33,536
• Household income: $43,227
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1701.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,952 people
• By 2030: 94,264 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 89,607 · -6.6%
• By 2050: 84,133 · -12.3%
• By 2075: 72,215 · -24.7%
• By 2100: 62,062 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% White 42% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.3% · R 58.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -21.6pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+12.9 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+8.9 2008: R+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.26%
• Current HPI: 162.2273
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.19%
• Metro: Jackson, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Listed $155,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Listed $155,900 CWTAR

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $452 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.