3061 US Highway 70 · Olton, TX 79064

$50,550

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,925 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1960 0.85 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Property viewable on Service Link Auction website at this time. Improved pricing can't be beat! Small acreage just outside of Olton! Four bedroom ranch style home. 1.5 baths and two living areas. Large eat in kitchen. Two car detached garage. Covered patio. Storm cellar. Great views for those awesome sunsets!

Key facts

• Large eat in kitchen
• Covered patio
• Great views

Tags

• LARGE EAT IN KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO
• STORM CELLAR
• GREAT VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $51k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $706 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $51k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#482 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Olton ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #468 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hp Webb El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 282 students, 66% FRL); Olton J H (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 140 students, 74% FRL); Olton H S (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 175 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $350 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $381 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lamb County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.

Recommended offer $44,484 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.83%
• DSCR: 3.66
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.95×
• Total profit: $41,749
• Equity at exit: $12,801

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.00×
• Total profit: $99,126
• Equity at exit: $13,960

Cash invested: $14,154 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79064

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,390 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$265
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,278/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $706

Break-even live

Break-even rent $497

Max offer price $50,550

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $734	-5% $720	+0% $706	+5% $691	+10% $677
Rent	-10% $596	-5% $651	+0% $706	+5% $761	+10% $815
Rate	-1.0pp $731	-0.5pp $719	base $706	+0.5pp $693	+1.0pp $679

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,638
• Closing costs: $1,516
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-28
   price $50,500
2. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-20
   price $50,550
4. 2026-03-03
   price $79,500
5. 2026-02-25
   price $85,000
6. 2026-02-06
   price $93,600
7. 2026-01-28
   price $104,000
8. 2025-12-12
   listed $130,000 Active
9. 1963-02-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,278 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,278 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,683
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,832
• − Property taxes: −$1,278
• − Insurance: −$253
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,335
• − Management: −$1,335
• − Depreciation: −$1,471
• Taxable income: $8,181
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,963
• After-tax cash flow: $6,505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Olton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833660
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,346
• Composite: 32.0/100
• National rank: #5833
• State rank: #468 of 826 in TX

Livability — Olton

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #482
• US rank: #9647

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,191

Population outlook (Lamb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,357 people
• By 2030: 11,878 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 10,950 · -11.4%
• By 2050: 9,929 · -19.6%
• By 2075: 7,355 · -40.5%
• By 2100: 4,603 · -62.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 30% White 26%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 55%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamb

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.3) · D 17.6% · R 81.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.4pp · 2024: -64.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.3 2020: R+60.8 2016: R+58.1 2012: R+50.3 2008: R+48.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.75%
• Current HPI: 84.9249
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-61.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $50,500 LARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $50,550 LARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $79,500 LARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $85,000 LARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $93,600 LARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $104,000 LARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $130,000 LARMLS
• 1963-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,278 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.