434 Middlebury Ln #130 · Hopkins, SC 29061

$252,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,783 sqft · SingleFamily · 809 Days on market

Built 2024 Est $264k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Tray ceiling
• Walk-in shower
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• CENTER ISLAND KITCHEN
• TRAY CEILING
• WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $252,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family style (Cedar B plan); Address: 434 Middlebury Ln #130, Hopkins, SC 29061
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,783 (living area value provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec-built Cedar B plan; Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $253k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($350/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#238 in SC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Richland 01 (urban): math 26% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #54 of 80 in SC (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Horrell Hill Elementary (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #515 of 597 statewide, top 89%, 562 students, 100% FRL); Southeast Middle (math 7% / reading 19%, grade F, #210 of 229 statewide, top 93%, 493 students, 100% FRL); Lower Richland High (math 5% / reading 64%, grade F, #185 of 196 statewide, top 94%, 1,244 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 64% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 335 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,472 units permitted in Richland County in 2024 (1,096 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richland County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 809 days — a 12% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $222,552 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 809 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.49%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $263,884
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
925 Farnsworth Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (-6%)	1mo	$247,000	$148	58
534 S Maney Ct	0.51mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,606 (-10%)	6mo	$203,010	$126	45
229 Keystone Dr	0.60mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,988 (+12%)	3mo	$250,000	$126	43
139 Myers Creek Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,517 (-15%)	21mo	$229,000	$151	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-39,091
• Equity at exit: $37,708

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-31,513
• Equity at exit: $21,866

Cash invested: $70,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29061

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 335
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,249 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,326
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$316 /mo · $3,794/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,212

Max offer price $252,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $204	-5% $117	+0% $29	+5% $-58	+10% $-146
Rent	-10% $-149	-5% $-60	+0% $29	+5% $118	+10% $207
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $93	base $29	+0.5pp $-36	+1.0pp $-103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,225
• Closing costs: $7,587
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
345 Bevington Brook Ln Hopkins, SC	3.0	2.0	1475	$2,195	$1.49	25d	1	0.32mi
455 Hunters Crossing Dr Hopkins, SC	3.0	2.0	1381	$1,699	$1.23	16d	1	0.40mi
1049 Crescent Moon Loop Hopkins, SC	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,100	$1.27	16d	1	0.68mi
1912 Dominion Dr Columbia, SC	4.0	2.0	1614	$2,300	$1.43	25d	1	1.44mi
2011 Dominion Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.0	1625	$1,595	$0.98	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $252,900 Active 809 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $252,900 Active 806 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $252,900 Active 805 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $252,900 Active 804 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $252,900 Active 803 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $252,900 Active 801 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $252,900 Active 798 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $252,900 Active 797 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $252,900 Active 796 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $252,900 Active 795 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $252,900 Active 791 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $252,900 Active 790 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $252,900 Active 789 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $252,900 Active 788 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,166
• − Property taxes: −$3,794
• − Insurance: −$1,264
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,159
• − Management: −$2,159
• − Depreciation: −$7,357
• Taxable loss: −$3,909
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$938
• After-tax cash flow: $1,288/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richland 01
• NCES district ID: 4503360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,931
• Composite: 25.94/100
• National rank: #7335
• State rank: #54 of 80 in SC

Livability — Hopkins

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #238
• US rank: #19825

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Richland County · 389,530 people
• City population: 12,538
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 12,538
• Household income: $60,307
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 236.0

Population outlook (Richland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 459,667 people
• By 2030: 487,524 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 542,035 · +17.9%
• By 2050: 595,371 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 732,998 · +59.5%
• By 2100: 820,415 · +78.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 68% White 23% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Richland

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.6) · D 66.4% · R 31.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.7pp toward D · 2008: 28.9pp · 2024: 34.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.6 2020: D+38.3 2016: D+32.9 2012: D+33.3 2008: D+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.44%
• Current HPI: 194.8986
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B