9499 Brayton Dr #39 · Anchorage, AK 99507

$70,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 197 Days on market

Built 1979 Good condition 2,600 sqft lot $83/sqft · 108% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

On demand water heater, new furnace, bedroom and bathroom on each end of mobile home. Owner is a contractor and has remodeled the inside. Fresh paint on outside. This home had a complete remodel about 2 years ago. Buyer must be pre-approved with the park office, Southwood Manor, 907-344-0111.

Key facts

• New furnace
• Bedroom and bathroom
• 2,600 sq ft lot

Tags

• ON DEMAND WATER HEATER
• NEW FURNACE
• BEDROOM AND BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $992 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.3% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spring Hill Elementary (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #116 of 156 statewide, top 77%, 335 students, 80% FRL); Hanshew Middle School (math 24% / reading 37%, grade F, #27 of 36 statewide, top 74%, 691 students, 42% FRL); Service High School (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #21 of 61 statewide, top 33%, 1,544 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.74%
• DSCR: 3.70
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $33,644
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: 108.06%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8930 Arlon St	0.68mi	2/1.0	780 (-7%)	22mo	$90,000	$115	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.98×
• Total profit: $58,382
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.21×
• Total profit: $160,930
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99507

• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,868 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $992

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,040	-5% $1,016	+0% $992	+5% $968	+10% $944
Rent	-10% $845	-5% $918	+0% $992	+5% $1,066	+10% $1,140
Rate	-1.0pp $1,027	-0.5pp $1,010	base $992	+0.5pp $974	+1.0pp $956

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10260 Jamestown Dr Unit 27-A Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	535	$1,200	$2.24	23d	1	0.34mi
9905 William Jones Cir Anchorage, AK	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1171	$2,145	$1.83	15d	10	0.39mi
2400 Sentry Dr Anchorage, AK	2.0	2.0	910	$1,700	$1.87	23d	1	0.47mi
2510 Sentry Dr Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	650	$1,395	$2.15	45d	1	0.53mi
1130 E 112th Ave Anchorage, AK	3.0	1.0	1092	$2,300	$2.11	45d	1	1.01mi
701 E 78th Ave Unit 705 Anchorage, AK	2.0	2.0	1020	$2,450	$2.40	15d	1	1.38mi
7330 Meadow St Anchorage, AK	2.0	2.0	1028	$2,399	$2.33	25d	1	1.44mi
7310 Chugach Meadows Loop Anchorage, AK	2.0	2.0	1028	$2,399	$2.33	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-13
   price $70,000 293-char remark

   Show marketing remark (293 chars)

   On demand water heater, new furnace, bedroom and bathroom on each end of mobile home. Owner is a contractor and has remodeled the inside. Fresh paint on outside. This home had a complete remodel about 2 years ago. Buyer must be pre-approved with the park office, Southwood Manor, 907-344-0111.

2. 2025-11-11
   listed $75,000 Active 293-char remark

   Show marketing remark (293 chars)

   On demand water heater, new furnace, bedroom and bathroom on each end of mobile home. Owner is a contractor and has remodeled the inside. Fresh paint on outside. This home had a complete remodel about 2 years ago. Buyer must be pre-approved with the park office, Southwood Manor, 907-344-0111.

3. 1999-05-24
   listed $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,793
• − Management: −$1,793
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $11,474
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,754
• After-tax cash flow: $9,152/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home has been recently remodeled and is in good condition, with fresh paint and updated systems. A fresh coat of exterior paint and some landscaping improvements would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Update the landscaping — A well-maintained yard can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Update the landscaping — A well-maintained yard can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchorage School District
• NCES district ID: 0200180
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,447
• Composite: 37.0/100
• National rank: #4523
• State rank: #6 of 21 in AK

Livability — Anchorage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2553

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anchorage, AK
• County: Anchorage Borough · 246,594 people
• City population: 218,117
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 37,301
• Household income: $107,992
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 775.0

Population outlook (Anchorage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,993 people
• By 2030: 321,771 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 335,493 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 352,799 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 414,771 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 474,485 · +50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Asian 16% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Native American 6% Black 4% Pacific Islander 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Anchorage

• 2024 margin: D (+12.7) · D 56.3% · R 43.7%
• 2016→2024 swing: +27.9pp toward D · 2016: -15.2pp · 2024: 12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.7 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.29%
• Current HPI: 273.1227
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.35%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+288.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $70,000 AKMLS
• 2025-11-11 Listed $75,000 AKMLS
• 1999-05-24 Listed $18,000 AKMLS