3009 Bay View Dr · Fenton, MI 48430

$42,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 66 Days on market

Built 1989 Average condition 6,534 sqft lot $35/sqft · 86% below area ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Bay View Drive! This adorable 3- bedroom , 2-bath home offers about 1,200 sq. ft. of living space in East Bay, a quiet and friendly community with shared lake access! Located just off Lake Ponemah , a charming all sports lake nestled north-northwest Fenton. Perfect for someone who is looking for an affordable place to call home while still enjoying the perks of lake living. * Subject to parks approval * Lot Rent-$850 per month

Key facts

• Shared lake access
• All sports lake
• Quiet community

Tags

• SHARED LAKE ACCESS
• ALL SPORTS LAKE
• QUIET COMMUNITY

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $42,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$296,545) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $42k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $990 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $42k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 34.6% vs local median 3.0% in Fenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#130 in MI, #3,197 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Fenton Area Public Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #112 of 540 in MI (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 311 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $290 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $39,480 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 100.99%
• DSCR: 5.49
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,545
• List price: $42,000
• Delta: -85.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3036 E Bay Dr Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	7mo	$76,000	$57	70
14286 Eastview Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,201 (+0%)	23mo	$485,000	$404	69
3188 Ponemah Dr	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,350 (+12%)	1mo	$595,000	$441	56
3087 Torrey Beach Dr	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-15%)	15mo	$210,000	$206	51
3127 Ponemah Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,291 (+8%)	24mo	$342,000	$265	50
3187 Ponemah Dr	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,260 (+5%)	23mo	$220,000	$175	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $55,587
• Equity at exit: $6,262

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.80×
• Total profit: $126,962
• Equity at exit: $3,631

Cash invested: $11,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48430

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,620 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$220
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$52 /mo · $630/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $990

Break-even live

Break-even rent $367

Max offer price $42,000

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,500
• Closing costs: $1,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2100 Georgetown Pkwy Fenton, MI	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,340	$1.19	1d	27	0.69mi
3200 Foley Glen Dr Fenton, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1137	$1,828	$1.61	1d	5	0.93mi
1024 North Rd Fenton, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	815	$1,400	$1.72	43d	3	0.94mi
1024 North Rd Fenton, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	815	$1,400	$1.72	1d	1	0.94mi
3800 Arbor Dr Fenton, MI	2.0	1.0–2.0	762	$1,749	$2.29	1d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $42,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $42,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $42,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $42,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $42,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $42,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $42,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $42,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $42,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $42,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    price $42,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $45,000 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Welcome to Bay View Drive! This adorable 3- bedroom , 2-bath home offers about 1,200 sq. ft. of living space in East Bay, a quiet and friendly community with shared lake access! Located just off Lake Ponemah , a charming all sports lake nestled north-northwest Fenton. Perfect for someone who is looking for an affordable place to call home while still enjoying the perks of lake living. * Subject to parks approval * Lot Rent-$850 per month

15. 2026-05-13
    price $45,000 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Welcome to Bay View Drive! This adorable 3- bedroom , 2-bath home offers about 1,200 sq. ft. of living space in East Bay, a quiet and friendly community with shared lake access! Located just off Lake Ponemah , a charming all sports lake nestled north-northwest Fenton. Perfect for someone who is looking for an affordable place to call home while still enjoying the perks of lake living. * Subject to parks approval * Lot Rent-$850 per month

16. 2026-04-20
    price $49,000 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Welcome to Bay View Drive! This adorable 3- bedroom , 2-bath home offers about 1,200 sq. ft. of living space in East Bay, a quiet and friendly community with shared lake access! Located just off Lake Ponemah , a charming all sports lake nestled north-northwest Fenton. Perfect for someone who is looking for an affordable place to call home while still enjoying the perks of lake living. * Subject to parks approval * Lot Rent-$850 per month

17. 2026-04-20
    price $49,000 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Welcome to Bay View Drive! This adorable 3- bedroom , 2-bath home offers about 1,200 sq. ft. of living space in East Bay, a quiet and friendly community with shared lake access! Located just off Lake Ponemah , a charming all sports lake nestled north-northwest Fenton. Perfect for someone who is looking for an affordable place to call home while still enjoying the perks of lake living. * Subject to parks approval * Lot Rent-$850 per month

18. 2026-04-13
    listed $59,000 Active 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Welcome to Bay View Drive! This adorable 3- bedroom , 2-bath home offers about 1,200 sq. ft. of living space in East Bay, a quiet and friendly community with shared lake access! Located just off Lake Ponemah , a charming all sports lake nestled north-northwest Fenton. Perfect for someone who is looking for an affordable place to call home while still enjoying the perks of lake living. * Subject to parks approval * Lot Rent-$850 per month

19. 2026-04-09
    listed $59,000 Active 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Welcome to Bay View Drive! This adorable 3- bedroom , 2-bath home offers about 1,200 sq. ft. of living space in East Bay, a quiet and friendly community with shared lake access! Located just off Lake Ponemah , a charming all sports lake nestled north-northwest Fenton. Perfect for someone who is looking for an affordable place to call home while still enjoying the perks of lake living. * Subject to parks approval * Lot Rent-$850 per month

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,353
• − Property taxes: −$630
• − Insurance: −$210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,555
• − Management: −$1,555
• − Depreciation: −$1,222
• Taxable income: $11,917
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,860
• After-tax cash flow: $9,016/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in East Bay, Fenton, MI, requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Key areas for attention include the deck, exterior siding, and interior walls. With some updates, it could be a great investment for both resale and rental.

Repairs flagged

• Major deck — rotting wood
• Moderate exterior siding — some discoloration

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both repair deck — improves functionality and enhances curb appeal
• Both trim exterior siding — enhances curb appeal and improves home value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
deck · rotting wood	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · some discoloration	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$18,000–65,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both repair deck — improves functionality and enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both trim exterior siding — enhances curb appeal and improves home value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fenton Area Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2614250
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,377
• Composite: 41.63/100
• National rank: #3426
• State rank: #112 of 540 in MI

Livability — Fenton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #3197

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Livingston County · 121,626 people
• City population: 39,309
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 39,309
• Household income: $100,193
• Rent vs Own: 18.6% rent · 81.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 642.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -298.66%
• Current HPI: 238.8371
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.59%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-23.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $45,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $45,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $49,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $49,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-13 Listed $59,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-09 Listed $59,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS