5539 Arrow Ln · Jacksonville, FL 32222

$225,490

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,395 sqft · Townhouse

Built 2026 Excellent condition 1,890 sqft lot $150/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious two-story exterior unit townhome offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Featuring a 1-car garage, 2 bedrooms, loft, and 2.5 baths, this thoughtfully designed home has all bedrooms located upstairs for added privacy. The primary suite includes a well-appointed bath with dual sinks for added functionality. Downstairs, enjoy an open-concept layout with a welcoming great room and a kitchen that includes a pantry for ample storage. This townhome is ideal for modern living with a smart layout that maximizes space and style. *Sample photos represent the floor plan, and are not of the actual home.

Key facts

• $150 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2026

🏗️ New construction. The $225,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $228,780.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $225k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-155 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $199,494 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.90%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,780
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5548 Arrow Ln	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,395 (0%)	2mo	$236,490	$170	96
5534 Arrow Ln	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,395 (0%)	2mo	$235,490	$169	96
5447 Arrow Ln	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,395 (0%)	2mo	$235,990	$169	96
5510 Arrow Ln	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,395 (0%)	3mo	$235,490	$169	96
5433 Arrow Ln	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,395 (0%)	0mo	$224,490	$161	94
5429 Arrow Ln	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,395 (0%)	2mo	$235,990	$169	91
5445 Arrow Ln	0.11mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,395 (0%)	2mo	$223,490	$160	88
5435 Arrow Ln	0.13mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,395 (0%)	2mo	$223,990	$161	87
10700 Waterfield Rd	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,432 (+3%)	2mo	$222,000	$155	81
10702 Waterfield Rd	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,432 (+3%)	2mo	$235,000	$164	81
10698 Waterfield Rd	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,432 (+3%)	2mo	$224,990	$157	80
10692 Waterfield Rd	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,429 (+2%)	2mo	$215,000	$150	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-47,585
• Equity at exit: $34,112

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-56,749
• Equity at exit: $19,781

Cash invested: $64,058 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32222

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,995 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,200
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,432/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,191

Max offer price $206,345

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3	-5% $-76	+0% $-155	+5% $-234	+10% $-313
Rent	-10% $-313	-5% $-234	+0% $-155	+5% $-76	+10% $3
Rate	-1.0pp $-40	-0.5pp $-97	base $-155	+0.5pp $-214	+1.0pp $-275

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,195
• Closing costs: $6,863
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4910 Samaritan Way Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	966	$1,758	$1.82	3d	16	0.28mi
10628 Waterfield Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1429	$1,900	$1.33	25d	1	0.42mi
10281 Magnolia Hills Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$1,900	$1.21	25d	1	0.77mi
9956 Somerset Grove Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1168	$1,675	$1.43	25d	1	1.24mi
5437 Tellaro Ln Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1395	$1,795	$1.29	21d	1	1.28mi
5216 Brighton Park Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,795	$1.22	11d	1	1.35mi
5138 Sawmill Point Way Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1780	$1,820	$1.02	25d	1	1.44mi
5229 Walkers Ridge Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1497	$1,795	$1.20	25d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-18
   listed $225,490 625-char remark

   Show marketing remark (625 chars)

   This spacious two-story exterior unit townhome offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Featuring a 1-car garage, 2 bedrooms, loft, and 2.5 baths, this thoughtfully designed home has all bedrooms located upstairs for added privacy. The primary suite includes a well-appointed bath with dual sinks for added functionality. Downstairs, enjoy an open-concept layout with a welcoming great room and a kitchen that includes a pantry for ample storage. This townhome is ideal for modern living with a smart layout that maximizes space and style. *Sample photos represent the floor plan, and are not of the actual home.

2. 2026-04-18
   historical 625-char remark

   Show marketing remark (625 chars)

   This spacious two-story exterior unit townhome offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Featuring a 1-car garage, 2 bedrooms, loft, and 2.5 baths, this thoughtfully designed home has all bedrooms located upstairs for added privacy. The primary suite includes a well-appointed bath with dual sinks for added functionality. Downstairs, enjoy an open-concept layout with a welcoming great room and a kitchen that includes a pantry for ample storage. This townhome is ideal for modern living with a smart layout that maximizes space and style. *Sample photos represent the floor plan, and are not of the actual home.

3. 2026-04-18
   listed $225,490

   Show marketing remark (625 chars)

   This spacious two-story exterior unit townhome offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Featuring a 1-car garage, 2 bedrooms, loft, and 2.5 baths, this thoughtfully designed home has all bedrooms located upstairs for added privacy. The primary suite includes a well-appointed bath with dual sinks for added functionality. Downstairs, enjoy an open-concept layout with a welcoming great room and a kitchen that includes a pantry for ample storage. This townhome is ideal for modern living with a smart layout that maximizes space and style. *Sample photos represent the floor plan, and are not of the actual home.

4. 2026-04-18
   historical

   Show marketing remark (625 chars)

   This spacious two-story exterior unit townhome offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Featuring a 1-car garage, 2 bedrooms, loft, and 2.5 baths, this thoughtfully designed home has all bedrooms located upstairs for added privacy. The primary suite includes a well-appointed bath with dual sinks for added functionality. Downstairs, enjoy an open-concept layout with a welcoming great room and a kitchen that includes a pantry for ample storage. This townhome is ideal for modern living with a smart layout that maximizes space and style. *Sample photos represent the floor plan, and are not of the actual home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,815
• − Property taxes: −$3,432
• − Insurance: −$1,144
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,915
• − Management: −$1,915
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$6,655
• Taxable loss: −$5,737
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,377
• After-tax cash flow: $-484/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This well-maintained townhouse is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout and is ideal for modern living. Simple updates like landscaping and interior paint can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing
• Both Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing ↑
• Both Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,258
• Household income: $85,649
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 666.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.56%
• Current HPI: 257.6466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Listed $225,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $225,490 realMLS