445 Earl Pl · Montgomery, AL 36104

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1930 4,791 sqft lot Est $140k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• ARV discount +5.7/15.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * HOME QUALIFIES FOR 100% CONVENTIONAL FINANCING * * NEW ROOF * * NEW WATER HEATER * * Experience the perfect blend of historic Garden District charm and high-end modern luxury in this stunningly reimagined Tudor-style cottage. From the moment you arrive, the crisp high-contrast exterior and brand-new privacy fence set the stage for a home that has been transformed with no detail overlooked. Step inside to find seamless new vinyl plank flooring flowing through an open-concept layout anchored by a chef’s dream kitchen. This culinary space is a true showstopper, boasting a sophisticated mix of new quartz and granite countertops, custom cabinetry, and a deep farmhouse sink. Mo

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1930

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $235 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (5.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 6.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, crime F.
• Montgomery County (urban): math 9% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #106 of 129 in AL (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 460 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,368/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($34k/yr) (locally 641% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $145k implies a 625% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,795 (5.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.95%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
445 Earl Pl	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,280 (0%)	0mo	$145,000	$113	96
1315 S Mcdonough St	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,379 (+8%)	4mo	$203,135	$147	75
466 Earl Pl	0.05mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (-8%)	9mo	$20,000	$17	72
323 Finley Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,375 (+7%)	12mo	$150,000	$109	66
1549 S Court St	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,315 (+3%)	7mo	$136,000	$103	66
961 S Lawrence St	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,426 (+11%)	1mo	$27,000	$19	64
24 Flood St	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,170 (-9%)	1mo	$33,000	$28	58
700 Genetta Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,148 (-10%)	6mo	$75,000	$65	53
1924 Graham St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+10%)	11mo	$213,100	$152	52
1142 S Lawrence St	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,460 (+14%)	13mo	$75,000	$51	47
629 S Mcdonough St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+15%)	0mo	$165,000	$112	39
1206 Woodward Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,452 (+13%)	8mo	$239,000	$165	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-8,596
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $11,492
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36104

• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,368 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $297/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,070

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1259 S Lawrence St Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1728	$1,300	$0.75	44d	1	0.20mi
1301 S Perry St Unit A Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	1100	$950	$0.86	13d	1	0.27mi
1020 S Lawrence St Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	1711	$2,000	$1.17	13d	1	0.29mi
1314 S Court St Montgomery, AL	2.0	2.0	1650	$1,495	$0.91	13d	1	0.40mi
24 Flood St Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,000	$0.88	21d	1	0.43mi
519 Thorn Pl Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	1632	$650	$0.40	21d	1	0.47mi
1919 Norman Bridge Ct Unit 1043838P Montgomery, AL	4.0	3.0	1539	$4,108	$2.67	44d	1	0.48mi
22 W Cromwell St Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1645	$1,350	$0.82	21d	1	0.48mi
428 Thorn Pl Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	1549	$1,450	$0.94	44d	1	0.48mi
105 Arlington Rd Unit B Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	1100	$925	$0.84	44d	1	0.68mi
906 E Fairview Ave Unit 902 Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	1100	$995	$0.90	21d	1	0.74mi
139 Mount Vernon Dr Unit A Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.5	1700	$1,000	$0.59	44d	1	0.74mi
2727 Boultier St Montgomery, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$1,582	$1.48	13d	3	0.84mi
3235 Norman Bridge Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1873	$900	$0.48	44d	1	0.86mi
1343 Felder Ave Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,095	$1.09	13d	1	0.89mi
1347 Felder Ave Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,095	$1.09	13d	1	0.90mi
3256 Montezuma Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1515	$1,450	$0.96	44d	1	0.92mi
3338 S Hull St Montgomery, AL	2.0	2.0	1311	$1,150	$0.88	21d	1	0.96mi
3357 Lexington Rd Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,175	$0.98	13d	1	1.03mi
3369 Montezuma Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1281	$1,150	$0.90	44d	1	1.10mi
1425 Blairwood Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,850	$1.09	13d	1	1.16mi
3356 Audubon Rd Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.5	1340	$950	$0.71	44d	1	1.17mi
2020 E 3rd St Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	1186	$750	$0.63	21d	1	1.17mi
1450 Crenshaw Pl S Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,775	$1.08	44d	1	1.23mi
207 Montgomery St Montgomery, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	890	$1,785	$2.01	13d	4	1.26mi
1008 Pelham St Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1288	$1,300	$1.01	44d	1	1.26mi
2205 E 5th St Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1020	$800	$0.78	44d	1	1.32mi
2226 Carter Hill Rd Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	1506	$905	$0.60	44d	1	1.34mi
2000 Cherry St Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	1106	$950	$0.86	44d	1	1.38mi
3445 Le Bron Rd Montgomery, AL	4.0	1.0	1100	$1,050	$0.95	21d	1	1.38mi
3515 Norman Bridge Rd Unit A Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,150	$1.00	44d	1	1.39mi
3544 Southmont Dr Montgomery, AL	4.0	1.5	1774	$1,300	$0.73	21d	1	1.44mi
2045 Bullard St Unit 1043526P Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1797	$2,198	$1.22	44d	1	1.47mi
718 W Edgemont Ave Unit B Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	875	$800	$0.91	21d	1	1.47mi
718 W Edgemont Ave Unit A Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	875	$875	$1.00	44d	1	1.47mi
545 Clay St Montgomery, AL	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,050	$0.95	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $145,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-25
   historical Contingent
5. 2026-03-07
   status Active
6. 2026-03-05
   historical Contingent
7. 2026-02-27
   listed $145,000 Active
8. 2025-10-01
   status Pending
9. 2025-09-30
   soldstatus $20,000 Closed
10. 2025-08-31
    historical Contingent
11. 2025-08-28
    listed $20,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $297 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $594 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: +$298/yr (+$25/mo · 100.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,415
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$297
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,313
• − Management: −$1,313
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $427
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$102
• After-tax cash flow: $2,719/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County
• NCES district ID: 0102430
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,902
• Composite: 17.24/100
• National rank: #9093
• State rank: #106 of 129 in AL

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #13416

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montgomery, AL
• County: Montgomery County · 190,016 people
• City population: 175,913
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• Population (ZIP): 10,535
• Household income: $33,823
• Rent vs Own: 75.4% rent · 24.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 641.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 224,008 people
• By 2030: 221,460 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 214,179 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 204,912 · -8.5%
• By 2075: 177,821 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 145,134 · -35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 72% White 20% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Swedish 2% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+30.7) · D 64.8% · R 34.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.2pp · 2024: 30.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+30.7 2020: D+31.5 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+24.3 2008: D+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.13%
• Current HPI: 27.2384
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+625.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — MAAR
• 2026-03-25 Contingent — MAAR
• 2026-03-07 Relisted — MAAR
• 2026-03-05 Contingent — MAAR
• 2026-02-27 Listed $145,000 MAAR
• 2025-10-01 Pending — MAAR
• 2025-09-30 Sold (MLS) $20,000 MAAR
• 2025-08-31 Contingent — MAAR
• 2025-08-28 Listed $20,000 MAAR

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $297 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.