25146 Guilford Rd · Bloxom, VA 23308

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1985 1.00 ac lot $155/sqft · 13% above area Est $203k · at est. ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy peaceful Eastern Shore living on a spacious one acre lot. This well maintained 3 bedroom, 2 full bath home offers 1,488 sq ft of comfortable living space with a functional layout and thoughtful updates. Highlights include central heat and A/C, energy efficient double pane windows, storm doors, and a durable metal roof. Built with 2x6 construction and blown in insulation for added efficiency, plus a newly installed well pump and tank. Several rooms feature recently replaced carpet, and the home provides ample storage both inside and out. A detached carport shed offers additional space for tools, equipment, or hobbies. A solid, efficient home with room to spread out, ideal for full time living, a second home, or an investment opportunity.

Key facts

• Durable metal roof
• Blown in insulation
• Storm doors

Tags

• SPACIOUS ONE ACRE LOT
• CENTRAL HEAT AND A/C
• STORM DOORS
• DURABLE METAL ROOF
• 2X6 CONSTRUCTION
• BLOWN IN INSULATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-235 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (20.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (40.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (40.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#473 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools F.
• Accomack County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #99 of 131 in VA (top 76%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 181 units permitted in Accomack County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Accomack County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,985 (40.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.05%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $202,611
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -1.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25099 Guilford Rd	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,314 (+2%)	24mo	$200,000	$152	68
24455 Guilford Rd	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,318 (+2%)	9mo	$240,000	$182	66
25539 Shoremain Dr	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,232 (-4%)	11mo	$200,000	$162	49
16114 Hopeton Rd	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,281 (-0%)	17mo	$175,000	$137	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.8% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $51,957
• Equity at exit: $135,258

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.91×
• Total profit: $162,269
• Equity at exit: $254,569

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23308

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $577/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,487

Max offer price $157,555

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-122	-5% $-178	+0% $-235	+5% $-291	+10% $-347
Rent	-10% $-329	-5% $-282	+0% $-235	+5% $-188	+10% $-141
Rate	-1.0pp $-134	-0.5pp $-184	base $-235	+0.5pp $-286	+1.0pp $-339

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,000 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 103 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    price $199,000 752-char remark

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    Enjoy peaceful Eastern Shore living on a spacious one acre lot. This well maintained 3 bedroom, 2 full bath home offers 1,488 sq ft of comfortable living space with a functional layout and thoughtful updates. Highlights include central heat and A/C, energy efficient double pane windows, storm doors, and a durable metal roof. Built with 2x6 construction and blown in insulation for added efficiency, plus a newly installed well pump and tank. Several rooms feature recently replaced carpet, and the home provides ample storage both inside and out. A detached carport shed offers additional space for tools, equipment, or hobbies. A solid, efficient home with room to spread out, ideal for full time living, a second home, or an investment opportunity.

18. 2026-02-19
    status Active 752-char remark

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    Enjoy peaceful Eastern Shore living on a spacious one acre lot. This well maintained 3 bedroom, 2 full bath home offers 1,488 sq ft of comfortable living space with a functional layout and thoughtful updates. Highlights include central heat and A/C, energy efficient double pane windows, storm doors, and a durable metal roof. Built with 2x6 construction and blown in insulation for added efficiency, plus a newly installed well pump and tank. Several rooms feature recently replaced carpet, and the home provides ample storage both inside and out. A detached carport shed offers additional space for tools, equipment, or hobbies. A solid, efficient home with room to spread out, ideal for full time living, a second home, or an investment opportunity.

19. 2026-02-06
    status Pending 752-char remark

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    Enjoy peaceful Eastern Shore living on a spacious one acre lot. This well maintained 3 bedroom, 2 full bath home offers 1,488 sq ft of comfortable living space with a functional layout and thoughtful updates. Highlights include central heat and A/C, energy efficient double pane windows, storm doors, and a durable metal roof. Built with 2x6 construction and blown in insulation for added efficiency, plus a newly installed well pump and tank. Several rooms feature recently replaced carpet, and the home provides ample storage both inside and out. A detached carport shed offers additional space for tools, equipment, or hobbies. A solid, efficient home with room to spread out, ideal for full time living, a second home, or an investment opportunity.

20. 2026-02-04
    listed $210,000 Active 752-char remark

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    Enjoy peaceful Eastern Shore living on a spacious one acre lot. This well maintained 3 bedroom, 2 full bath home offers 1,488 sq ft of comfortable living space with a functional layout and thoughtful updates. Highlights include central heat and A/C, energy efficient double pane windows, storm doors, and a durable metal roof. Built with 2x6 construction and blown in insulation for added efficiency, plus a newly installed well pump and tank. Several rooms feature recently replaced carpet, and the home provides ample storage both inside and out. A detached carport shed offers additional space for tools, equipment, or hobbies. A solid, efficient home with room to spread out, ideal for full time living, a second home, or an investment opportunity.

21. 2025-09-04
    price $210,000
22. 2025-07-19
    listed $220,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $577 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,632 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,055/yr (+$88/mo · 182.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,278
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$577
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,142
• − Management: −$1,142
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$6,515
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,564
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Accomack County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100060
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,348
• Composite: 43.05/100
• National rank: #3096
• State rank: #99 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bloxom

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #473
• US rank: #20443

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,118

Population outlook (Accomack County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,072 people
• By 2030: 31,425 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,685 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 27,748 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 23,396 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 18,774 · -41.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 29% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 13% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 14% Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Accomack

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 43.0% · R 56.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+9.4 2016: R+11.7 2012: R+3.5 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.80%
• Current HPI: 149.3044
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $199,000 ESAR
• 2026-02-19 Relisted — ESAR
• 2026-02-06 Pending — ESAR
• 2026-02-04 Listed $210,000 ESAR
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $210,000 ESAR
• 2025-07-19 Listed $220,000 ESAR

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $577 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.