4535 Holly Ave · St. Louis, MO 63115

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1915 6,198 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Appreciation +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 4535 Holly Ave! Attention investors! This solid brick 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with a Master Bedroom Suite and bonus office/den is ready for your vision. Featuring wood flooring, a fireplace, separate dining and living rooms, and city parking, this property offers plenty of charm and character to build on. The Master Bedroom has a separate tub/shower and also an area for a washer/dryer hookup. This property does need some work, but the possibilities are endless—transform this city home into a stunning showpiece. The prime location, close to parks, public transportation, and major highways, makes it an excellent opportunity. Schedule a showing today and bring your ideas to li

Key facts

• 6,198 sq ft lot
• Built 1915
• Listed 164 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished area about 2,296 (public records)
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (Ameren); Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family house; Two levels; Private ownership; Fixer condition
• Construction: Brick construction; Spanish tile roof; Unfinished walk-out basement; Foundation: other; Built year from public records
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Concrete road frontage on a city street

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the upper level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Crown molding; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located on the 2nd floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $251 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hickey Elem. (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,072 of 1,115 statewide, top 98%, 273 students, 99% FRL); Vashon High (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #520 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 568 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($31k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $100k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.74%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,824
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2111 E College Ave	0.62mi	2/2.0	2,112 (-8%)	5mo	$18,000	$9	50
4418 Carter Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,029 (-12%)	24mo	$190,000	$94	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-274
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $20,175
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63115

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,084 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $477/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $767

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4202 Gano Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1650	$1,168	$0.71	23d	1	0.86mi
4868 Farlin Ave Unit 2 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	2690	$1,100	$0.41	43d	1	1.13mi
4247 Maffitt Ave St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1700	$1,000	$0.59	4d	1	1.30mi
2207 Angelica St Unit 1 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1734	$1,350	$0.78	43d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-17
   status Active
3. 2026-03-17
   price $100,000
4. 2025-12-31
   status Pending
5. 2025-09-18
   historical Active Under Contract
6. 2025-09-03
   listed $145,000 Active
7. 2025-09-01
   historical $145,000
8. 2019-11-01
   soldstatus $45,223

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $477 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $970 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$493/yr (+$41/mo · 103.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,010
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$477
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,041
• − Management: −$1,041
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $1,441
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$346
• After-tax cash flow: $2,662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 14,488
• Household income: $30,622
• Rent vs Own: 57.7% rent · 42.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1655.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 95% White 2% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.42%
• Current HPI: 127.3403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+121.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $100,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-18 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Listed $145,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-01 Coming Soon $145,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,223 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $477 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.