7019 Welland Rd · Jacksonville, FL 32209

$129,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1968 8,276 sqft lot Est $213k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special. Concrete block 3BR/2BA home on a fenced approx. 8,304 sq. ft. lot with approx. 1,216 sq. ft. of living space. Excellent value-add opportunity for fix-and-flip, rental hold, or renovation resale. Convenient location with access to I-95, major roadways, and Downtown Jacksonville. Cash only. Property sold AS-IS. Seller to make no repairs. Bring your highest and best. Back on the Market Buyer Default.

Key facts

• Access to i-95
• Convenient location
• Fenced lot

Tags

• CONCRETE BLOCK HOME
• FENCED LOT
• VALUE-ADD OPPORTUNITY
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• ACCESS TO I-95

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $299 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 394 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,394/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($31k/yr) (locally 2921% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $11k; list at $129k implies a 1073% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.93%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $212,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5228 Boilard Dr	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,143 (-6%)	6mo	$199,999	$175	76
6946 West Virginia Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,163 (-4%)	12mo	$80,000	$69	67
7605 Hull St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,262 (+4%)	10mo	$235,009	$186	65
7622 Hull St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,262 (+4%)	4mo	$235,000	$186	65
7611 Hull St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,262 (+4%)	10mo	$238,000	$189	65
6169 Bagley Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+1%)	10mo	$220,000	$179	56
5706 Kinlock Ct	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,048 (-14%)	4mo	$120,000	$115	55
5888 Gaspar Cir S	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,112 (-9%)	11mo	$191,000	$172	55
4510 Detaille Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,286 (+6%)	8mo	$239,900	$187	54
6738 Gaspar Cir E	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,348 (+11%)	8mo	$189,900	$141	54
4429 Trenton Dr S	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,159 (-5%)	10mo	$144,000	$124	46
7403 John F Kennedy Dr W	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+11%)	8mo	$210,000	$156	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-3,558
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $14,659
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32209

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 394
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,394 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $867/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,016

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6731 W Virginia Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1188	$1,225	$1.03	21d	1	0.36mi
4910 Rhode Island Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,696	$1.30	24d	1	0.37mi
6705 Gaspar Cir E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1116	$1,254	$1.12	17d	1	0.41mi
6718 Gaspar Cir W Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1068	$1,305	$1.22	24d	1	0.49mi
6412 New Kings Rd Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	17d	1	0.57mi
6412 New Kings Rd Unit 2 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	17d	1	0.57mi
4543 Moncrief Rd W Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,075	$1.13	8d	1	0.72mi
6188 Pettiford Dr W Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,850	$1.23	12d	1	0.75mi
6601 Cleveland Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	896	$1,400	$1.56	24d	1	0.80mi
4236 Homer Rd N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	888	$1,250	$1.41	11d	1	0.82mi
4294 Katanga Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	24d	1	0.85mi
4253 Moncrief Rd W Unit 2 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$975	$1.16	24d	1	0.86mi
7623 John F Kennedy Dr E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1008	$1,501	$1.49	24d	1	0.90mi
4211 Moncrief Rd W Unit 2 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$995	$1.18	24d	1	0.92mi
4440 Ken Knight Dr N Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	716	$650	$0.91	15d	1	0.94mi
3997 Leonnie Rd Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$950	$1.13	8d	1	0.94mi
4177 Lorenzo Ct Unit 4 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$945	$1.12	2d	1	0.95mi
4144 Katanga Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1114	$1,095	$0.98	24d	1	0.97mi
8645 Samona Dr W Jacksonville, FL	4.0	1.0	1196	$1,250	$1.05	24d	1	0.99mi
4895 Churchill Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,900	$1.46	24d	1	1.08mi
8534 Addison Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1410	$1,995	$1.41	24d	1	1.13mi
8509 Addison Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1494	$1,675	$1.12	24d	1	1.13mi
8036 Mattox Ave Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1160	$1,480	$1.28	16d	1	1.20mi
8119 Siskin Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1102	$1,650	$1.50	24d	1	1.28mi
8119 Siskin Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1102	$1,650	$1.50	17d	1	1.28mi
2904 Lippia Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	1.0	964	$1,400	$1.45	24d	1	1.29mi
8516 Bermuda Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1492	$1,625	$1.09	20d	1	1.31mi
5838 Abelia Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1135	$1,150	$1.01	24d	1	1.33mi
8367 Tubman Ct Jacksonville, FL	4.0	1.5	1398	$1,790	$1.28	17d	1	1.33mi
5814 Begonia Rd Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,655	$1.10	24d	1	1.39mi
9206 Greenleaf Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	888	$1,400	$1.58	17d	1	1.39mi
5821 Begonia Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,155	$0.94	4d	1	1.42mi
5355 New Kings Rd Unit 21 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	4d	1	1.48mi
7860 Rondo Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,410	$1.33	8d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-14
   status Active
4. 2026-03-29
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2026-03-23
   listed $129,000 Active
6. 1974-12-04
   soldstatus $11,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $867 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,071 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$204/yr (+$17/mo · 23.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$867
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,338
• − Management: −$1,338
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $1,561
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$375
• After-tax cash flow: $3,211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,657
• Household income: $30,514
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2921.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 88% White 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.92%
• Current HPI: 189.5977
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1072.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-15 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-04-14 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-03-29 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $129,000 realMLS
• 1974-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $867 · +26.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.