3416 Clairborne Way · Bel Air South, MD 21009

$225,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,240 sqft · Townhouse public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1987 2,000 sqft lot Est $263k · 14% under $79/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Unfinished basement
• $79 HOA
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• LESS THAN 5 MINUTES FROM I-95

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total below-grade area approximately 620 (unfinished); Above-grade finished area approximately 1,240; Ground rent paid annually
• HOA & community: HOA fee of $79 per month

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot with 2 spaces (total 2 garage/parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; No municipal trash service
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership; Year built: estimated
• Construction: Brick, combination, and vinyl siding exterior; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Above grade and below grade structural elements

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Wall oven; Cooktop; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level (Master Bedroom, Bedroom 2, Bedroom 3)
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank; Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (all upper levels); Two half bathrooms (one on main level, one on lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s); Central air conditioning; Electric heating and cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Basement laundry; Rooms include: Master bedroom, two additional bedrooms, family room, kitchen, basement, and multiple bathrooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (laundry located in basement)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $271 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.1% in Bel Air South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#33 in MD, #1,172 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 158 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.1% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $97k; list at $225k implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.16%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $262,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3455 Howell Ct	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,240 (0%)	3mo	$304,000	$245	88
3500 Thomas Pointe Ct Unit 2B	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-1%)	5mo	$233,000	$189	85
631 Nanticoke Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,240 (0%)	0mo	$318,000	$256	83
3500 Thomas Pointe Ct Unit 1C	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,215 (-2%)	9mo	$235,000	$193	79
203 Star Pointe Ct Unit 2C	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+5%)	3mo	$235,000	$181	77
3506 Back Pointe Ct Unit 3D	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,186 (-4%)	6mo	$220,000	$185	75
3361 Garrison Cir	0.19mi	3/1.5	1,166 (-6%)	12mo	$315,000	$270	72
3508 Back Pointe Ct Unit 3A	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,177 (-5%)	8mo	$232,900	$198	71
3363 Garrison Cir	0.18mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,296 (+4%)	6mo	$325,000	$251	70
3109 Eden Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,342 (+8%)	3mo	$284,000	$212	44
3020 Benefit Ct	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,362 (+10%)	8mo	$288,662	$212	36
3620 Marpat Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-13%)	12mo	$275,000	$255	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-9,346
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $58,083
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21009

• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,277 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,099/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$79
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,934

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3361 Cheverly Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,195	$1.46	43d	1	0.29mi
499 Crisfield Dr Abingdon, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	898	$2,020	$2.25	2d	11	0.30mi
499 Crisfield Dr Abingdon, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	898	$2,309	$2.57	43d	20	0.30mi
158 Glen View Ter Abingdon, MD	2.0	2.5	1176	$1,995	$1.70	17d	1	0.62mi
3103 Cardinal Way Unit 1 Abingdon, MD	2.0	1.0	976	$1,800	$1.84	17d	1	0.63mi
102 Waldon Rd Abingdon, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	794	$1,675	$2.11	1d	38	0.91mi
3405 McCurley Dr Abingdon, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1263	$3,264	$2.58	2d	29	0.98mi
307L Tall Pines Ct Unit L Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,399	$1.85	14d	1	1.00mi
3101 White Oak Dr Abingdon, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	576	$1,630	$2.83	3d	5	1.07mi
2814 Meredith Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,300	$1.74	24d	1	1.23mi
644 Berwick Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,395	$1.60	43d	1	1.26mi
2509 Merrick Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	1.5	1230	$1,900	$1.54	43d	1	1.39mi
129 Long Meadow Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	1.5	1240	$2,200	$1.77	43d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $79 · $948/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $225,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $225,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,099 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,276 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$177/yr (+$15/mo · 8.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,322
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,099
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,186
• − Management: −$2,186
• − HOA: −$948
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$370
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$89
• After-tax cash flow: $3,342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bel Air South

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #1172

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A- Cost of living D Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bel Air South, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• City population: 63,895
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 33,679
• Household income: $121,660
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.25%
• Current HPI: 251.4376
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.12%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+172.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Coming Soon $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1994-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $96,900 Public Records
• 1987-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $82,465 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,099 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.