229 Mill Rd · Holbrook, NY 11741

$349,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,548 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 1963 0.45 ac lot Est $663k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Handy man special. 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch located in Holbrook. Yard in need of a lot of TLC. Water damaged linoleum in kitchen, water damaged sheetrock throughout.

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1963

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $349k).
• Recommended offer: $344k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.5% in Holbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#658 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Sachem Central School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hiawatha School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 603 students, 36% FRL); Seneca Middle School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B+, #136 of 729 statewide, top 20%, 973 students, 22% FRL); Sachem High School North (math 96% / reading 95%, grade A+, #76 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,923 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($344k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $349k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $343,765 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.57%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $662,544
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 Coleridge Rd	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,522 (-2%)	2mo	$606,000	$398	65
132 Smith Ave	0.16mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,600 (+3%)	13mo	$580,000	$363	63
86 Ackerly Ln	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,428 (-8%)	4mo	$599,000	$419	62
36 Brian St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,776 (+15%)	2mo	$760,000	$428	62
14 Center St	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,350 (-13%)	11mo	$660,000	$489	49
8 N 1st St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-13%)	7mo	$576,000	$429	47
33 Elm St	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,750 (+13%)	10mo	$725,000	$414	46
149 Avenue C	0.61mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,703 (+10%)	4mo	$610,000	$358	44
7 Hester Ln	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,368 (-12%)	5mo	$630,000	$461	43
18 Norma Blvd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,414 (-9%)	12mo	$630,000	$446	38
32 Patchogue Holbrook Rd	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-10%)	10mo	$585,000	$418	37
15 Richard Pl	0.65mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,368 (-12%)	10mo	$589,000	$431	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-32,394
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $53,952
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11741

• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,501 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax from tax record: −$662 /mo · $7,942/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,339

Max offer price $349,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
147 Lake Shore Rd Ronkonkoma, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	940	$3,379	$3.59	1d	10	1.49mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-26
   status Active
3. 2026-02-25
   listed $349,000 Active
4. 2007-05-01
   soldstatus $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,942 · $662/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,942 · $662/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,011
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$7,942
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,361
• − Management: −$3,361
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$4,101
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$984
• After-tax cash flow: $2,523/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sachem Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625350
• Math proficiency: 69% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $92,968
• Composite: 65.53/100
• National rank: #472
• State rank: #86 of 590 in NY

Livability — Holbrook

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #658
• US rank: #12283

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holbrook, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 26,667
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 26,667
• Household income: $144,346
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 416.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -682.71%
• Current HPI: 328.9231
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.30%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+132.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Listed $349,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,942 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.