1306 Michigan Ave · Middletown, OH 45044

$86,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 812 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1917 2,352 sqft lot $107/sqft · 28% below area Est $121k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two story single family consisting of following: Kitchen, Living room, 3 beds, 1 bath, and front porch. Most recent rent: $900 Month Tenant paid gas, water, electric Property may be purchased separately or as a portfolio package in any combination with the following listed properties: 1. 1306 Michigan Ave. Middletown SF 2. 925 Garden Ave. Middletown SF 3. 1812 Carroll Ave. Middletown SF 4. 623 S. MLK Jr. Blvd. Hamilton Duplex

Key facts

• 2,352 sq ft lot
• Built 1917
• Listed 91 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $86,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$121,439) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $87k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $315 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $87k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 4.5% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#389 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, amenities D+.
• Middletown City (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #610 of 656 in OH (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,163 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (356 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $601 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $79,079 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.55%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $121,439
• List price: $86,900
• Delta: -28.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1206 Parkview Ave	0.26mi	2/1.0	864 (+6%)	4mo	$110,000	$127	73
1503 Brown St	0.33mi	2/1.0	888 (+9%)	1mo	$106,000	$119	68
1815 Baltimore St	0.27mi	2/1.0	712 (-12%)	1mo	$134,900	$189	66
904 Crawford St	0.53mi	2/1.0	800 (-2%)	9mo	$105,000	$131	65
707 Fifteenth Ave	0.66mi	2/1.0	844 (+4%)	1mo	$179,000	$212	62
704 Fourteenth Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0	864 (+6%)	0mo	$110,000	$127	58
2008 Pearl St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	786 (-3%)	9mo	$89,900	$114	55
2215 Pearl St	0.70mi	2/1.0	794 (-2%)	11mo	$165,900	$209	55
2220 Yankee Rd	0.71mi	2/1.5	753 (-7%)	4mo	$160,000	$212	49
2121 Roosevelt Blvd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	784 (-3%)	2mo	$169,000	$216	49
1713 Lafayette Ave	0.56mi	2/1.0	912 (+12%)	8mo	$80,000	$88	47
1706 Meadow Ave	0.70mi	2/1.0	720 (-11%)	11mo	$104,900	$146	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $9,942
• Equity at exit: $12,957

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $51,819
• Equity at exit: $7,514

Cash invested: $24,332 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45044

• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,142 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$456
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,141/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $743

Max offer price $86,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,725
• Closing costs: $2,607
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1409 Young St Unit 1 Middletown, OH	1.0	1.0	1050	$950	$0.90	4d	1	0.10mi
702 Baltimore St Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	848	$895	$1.06	43d	1	0.37mi
1904 Baltimore St Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	624	$975	$1.56	43d	1	0.45mi
2000 Pearl St Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$3,500	$3.89	1d	4	0.58mi
2206 Baltimore St Middletown, OH	1.0	1.0	596	$900	$1.51	43d	1	0.63mi
1915 Woodlawn Ave Middletown, OH	3.0	1.5	1060	$1,550	$1.46	43d	1	0.71mi
2208 Woodlawn Ave Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	780	$895	$1.15	43d	1	0.90mi
2310 S Sutphin St Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	967	$1,025	$1.06	23d	1	0.96mi
2101 S Main St Middletown, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0	757	$900	$1.19	1d	1	0.98mi
1302 Central Ave Middletown, OH	1.0	1.0	800	$1,095	$1.37	43d	1	0.98mi
2400 Sherman Ave Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	920	$1,280	$1.39	43d	1	1.05mi
3 N Sutphin St Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	715	$925	$1.29	4d	1	1.10mi
5 N Sutphin St Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	715	$925	$1.29	4d	1	1.10mi
206 N Sutphin St Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	43d	1	1.22mi
202 Harrison St Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	1015	$895	$0.88	43d	1	1.25mi
1804 Brentwood St Middletown, OH	3.0	1.0	1044	$1,430	$1.37	23d	1	1.33mi
108 Shafor St Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	1110	$925	$0.83	11d	1	1.33mi
108 Shafor St Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	1110	$925	$0.83	20d	1	1.33mi
1820 Clarendon Ave Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	43d	1	1.40mi
3003 Grand Ave Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	928	$1,050	$1.13	10d	1	1.44mi
3003 Grand Ave Fl 1 Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	928	$1,050	$1.13	7d	1	1.44mi
1109 Oxford State Rd Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	744	$995	$1.34	1d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $86,900 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $86,900 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $86,900 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $86,900 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $86,900 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $86,900 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $86,900 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $86,900 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $86,900 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $86,900 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $86,900 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $86,900 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-04-13
    price $86,900 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Two story single family consisting of following: Kitchen, Living room, 3 beds, 1 bath, and front porch. Most recent rent: $900 Month Tenant paid gas, water, electric Property may be purchased separately or as a portfolio package in any combination with the following listed properties: 1. 1306 Michigan Ave. Middletown SF 2. 925 Garden Ave. Middletown SF 3. 1812 Carroll Ave. Middletown SF 4. 623 S. MLK Jr. Blvd. Hamilton Duplex

14. 2026-03-11
    listed $95,000 Active 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Two story single family consisting of following: Kitchen, Living room, 3 beds, 1 bath, and front porch. Most recent rent: $900 Month Tenant paid gas, water, electric Property may be purchased separately or as a portfolio package in any combination with the following listed properties: 1. 1306 Michigan Ave. Middletown SF 2. 925 Garden Ave. Middletown SF 3. 1812 Carroll Ave. Middletown SF 4. 623 S. MLK Jr. Blvd. Hamilton Duplex

15. 2026-02-04
    historical 36-char remark

    Show marketing remark (36 chars)

    Rent ready 2 bedroom in popular area

16. 2026-01-02
    price $109,000 36-char remark

    Show marketing remark (36 chars)

    Rent ready 2 bedroom in popular area

17. 2025-11-17
    price $114,000 36-char remark

    Show marketing remark (36 chars)

    Rent ready 2 bedroom in popular area

18. 2025-10-20
    listed $129,000 Active 36-char remark

    Show marketing remark (36 chars)

    Rent ready 2 bedroom in popular area

19. 2019-08-22
    soldstatus $420,000
20. 2005-12-02
    soldstatus $7,500
21. 2005-11-30
    soldstatus $4,500
22. 2005-02-24
    listed $9,500
23. 1983-12-01
    soldstatus $14,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,141 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,248 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$108/yr (+$9/mo · 9.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,706
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,868
• − Property taxes: −$1,141
• − Insurance: −$434
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,096
• − Management: −$1,096
• − Depreciation: −$2,528
• Taxable income: $2,542
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$610
• After-tax cash flow: $3,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown City
• NCES district ID: 3904440
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $36,650
• Composite: 20.35/100
• National rank: #8605
• State rank: #610 of 656 in OH

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #389
• US rank: #6338

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middletown, OH
• County: Butler County · 381,674 people
• City population: 96,117
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 56,217
• Household income: $73,732
• Rent vs Own: 38.1% rent · 61.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1532.0

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 387,706 people
• By 2030: 392,028 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 395,307 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 391,116 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 378,642 · -2.3%
• By 2100: 343,248 · -11.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.3) · D 36.4% · R 62.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.6pp · 2024: -26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.3 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+28.3 2012: R+26.2 2008: R+22.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.07%
• Current HPI: 219.0479
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.31%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+499.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $86,900 Dayton MLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $95,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-02-04 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $109,000 Cincy MLS
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $114,000 Cincy MLS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $129,000 Cincy MLS
• 2019-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $420,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $7,500 Public Records
• 2005-11-30 Sold (MLS) $4,500 Cincy MLS
• 2005-02-24 Listed $9,500 Cincy MLS
• 1983-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,141 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.