7241 San Luis St · Carlsbad, CA 92011

$409,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,546 sqft · SingleFamily · 368 Days on market

Built 2004 $265/sqft · 8% above area Est $380k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous three bedroom, two bath home in the 55+ exclusive gated community of Lakeshore Gardens! Vaulted living room, dining area ceiling. Stainless steel appliances. Freshly painted exterior. New bathroom vanities, newer screens, newer garbage disposal. Separate kitchen and dining areas, perfect for entertaining. Hardwood laminate flooring in main areas. Light and bright pop-out breakfast nook. Spacious shed with shelving. Vinyl fencing with relaxing side yard and no neighbors behind home. Lakeshore Gardens is an active 55+, luxury manufactured home community in Carlsbad. This park is located on 54 acres of land, has 383 home sites, & 10 small lakes. Lush landscaping, greenbelts & mature trees throughout, giving the community a park-like feel. Extensive waterfowl call this home. The ponds are home to turtles & many fish. Nature lovers have the best of all worlds here! The 2-story club house has a country club feel. The upper-level houses an office, lobby, card room with fireplace, billiard room & a beautiful balcony to enjoy ocean views. Lower level has a fabulous library, recreation room with a stage, kitchen & restrooms. A large patio with fountain, fire pit, & outdoor fireplace adjoins the community room, which is used for many events. Heated pool & spa, sauna beautiful gym, ping pong & shuffleboard tables. Various activities in the community, so residents can find friendship & companionship while attending events they enjoy. Activities include card games, bingo, monthly breakfasts, craft groups, golf groups, ladies’ luncheons & much more! You can be as active as you choose, right here at Lakeshore Gardens!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Spacious shed
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEW BATHROOM VANITIES
• HARDWOOD LAMINATE FLOORING
• POP-OUT BREAKFAST NOOK
• SPACIOUS SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $409k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($29k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $409k).
• Recommended offer: $360k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 2.1% in Carlsbad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 97 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,684/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($159k/yr) (locally 714% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $115k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 368 days — a 12% lower offer ($360k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $409k implies a 360% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $359,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 368 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.71%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $380,342
• List price: $409,000
• Delta: 7.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7354 Escallonia Ct	0.17mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,691 (+9%)	1mo	$1,543,500	$913	69
7426 Lantana	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,475 (-5%)	4mo	$1,500,000	$1,017	64
7139 Linden	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,737 (+12%)	4mo	$1,475,000	$849	56
7013 Lavender Way	0.50mi	3/3.0	1,678 (+8%)	4mo	$1,260,000	$751	55
7219 Linden	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,338 (-14%)	6mo	$1,225,000	$916	54
6936 Quiet Cove Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,376 (-11%)	4mo	$1,254,900	$912	50
820 Daphne Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,322 (-14%)	9mo	$1,340,000	$1,014	49
802 Spindrift Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,376 (-11%)	4mo	$1,030,000	$749	46
7102 Primrose Way	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,766 (+14%)	0mo	$1,625,000	$920	44
911 Orchid Way	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,766 (+14%)	8mo	$1,575,000	$892	42
7112 Lantana	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,343 (-13%)	16mo	$1,300,000	$968	41
6866 Seaspray Ln	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,769 (+14%)	8mo	$1,400,000	$791	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.75% appreciation · 3.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $182,867
• Equity at exit: $155,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.12×
• Total profit: $472,133
• Equity at exit: $220,163

Cash invested: $114,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92011

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,684 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,145
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$511 /mo · $6,135/yr
• Insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,404
• Net cashflow: $2,454

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,578

Max offer price $409,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,736	-5% $2,595	+0% $2,454	+5% $2,312	+10% $2,171
Rent	-10% $1,926	-5% $2,190	+0% $2,454	+5% $2,718	+10% $2,982
Rate	-1.0pp $2,660	-0.5pp $2,558	base $2,454	+0.5pp $2,348	+1.0pp $2,240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,250
• Closing costs: $12,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7290 Ponto Dr Carlsbad, CA	4.0	3.5	1757	$8,395	$4.78	0d	1	0.12mi
7064 Whitewater St Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.5	2050	$8,500	$4.15	44d	1	0.28mi
6923 Whitecap Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1246	$5,250	$4.21	44d	1	0.65mi
820 Windcrest Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1404	$5,581	$3.98	19d	1	0.85mi
6910 Peachtree Rd Unit 1546353P Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1399	$6,129	$4.38	17d	1	0.85mi
6790 Embarcadero Ln Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	2.0–2.5	2104	$5,750	$2.73	6d	1	0.94mi
6811 Alderwood Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1292	$3,850	$2.98	44d	1	1.00mi
1967 N Vulcan Ave Encinitas, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	931	$5,359	$5.76	0d	6	1.06mi
916 Caminito Estrada Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1188	$3,650	$3.07	44d	1	1.18mi
1812 Parliament Rd Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.0	1467	$11,200	$7.63	0d	1	1.21mi
1859 N Vulcan Ave Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.5	1950	$7,000	$3.59	0d	1	1.22mi
925 Wind Drift Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.5	1110	$3,895	$3.51	44d	1	1.35mi
6555 Sea Gate Rd Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1114	$4,095	$3.67	2d	3	1.39mi
141 Stonesteps Way Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.5	1593	$6,500	$4.08	2d	1	1.42mi
1703 Kennington Rd Encinitas, CA	3.0	2.0	1616	$6,195	$3.83	3d	1	1.43mi
1686 Neptune Ave Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.0	1268	$10,500	$8.28	2d	1	1.44mi
1680 Neptune Ave Encinitas, CA	4.0	3.5	1706	$25,000	$14.65	2d	1	1.45mi
156 Grandview St Unit 4 Encinitas, CA	2.0	1.5	1400	$4,800	$3.43	14d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $409,000 Active 368 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $409,000 Active 365 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $409,000 Active 364 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $409,000 Active 363 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $409,000 Active 362 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $409,000 Active 360 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $409,000 Active 359 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $409,000 Active 356 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $409,000 Active 355 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $409,000 Active 354 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $409,000 Active 351 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $409,000 Active 350 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $409,000 Active 349 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $409,000 Active 348 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $409,000 Active 347 DOM
16. 2025-12-11
    price $409,000 1702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1702 chars)

    Gorgeous three bedroom, two bath home in the 55+ exclusive gated community of Lakeshore Gardens! Vaulted living room, dining area ceiling. Stainless steel appliances. Freshly painted exterior. New bathroom vanities, newer screens, newer garbage disposal. Separate kitchen and dining areas, perfect for entertaining. Hardwood laminate flooring in main areas. Light and bright pop-out breakfast nook. Spacious shed with shelving. Vinyl fencing with relaxing side yard and no neighbors behind home. Lakeshore Gardens is an active 55+, luxury manufactured home community in Carlsbad. This park is located on 54 acres of land, has 383 home sites, & 10 small lakes. Lush landscaping, greenbelts & mature trees throughout, giving the community a park-like feel. Extensive waterfowl call this home. The ponds are home to turtles & many fish. Nature lovers have the best of all worlds here! The 2-story club house has a country club feel. The upper-level houses an office, lobby, card room with fireplace, billiard room & a beautiful balcony to enjoy ocean views. Lower level has a fabulous library, recreation room with a stage, kitchen & restrooms. A large patio with fountain, fire pit, & outdoor fireplace adjoins the community room, which is used for many events. Heated pool & spa, sauna beautiful gym, ping pong & shuffleboard tables. Various activities in the community, so residents can find friendship & companionship while attending events they enjoy. Activities include card games, bingo, monthly breakfasts, craft groups, golf groups, ladies’ luncheons & much more! You can be as active as you choose, right here at Lakeshore Gardens!

17. 2025-08-02
    price $425,000 1702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1702 chars)

    Gorgeous three bedroom, two bath home in the 55+ exclusive gated community of Lakeshore Gardens! Vaulted living room, dining area ceiling. Stainless steel appliances. Freshly painted exterior. New bathroom vanities, newer screens, newer garbage disposal. Separate kitchen and dining areas, perfect for entertaining. Hardwood laminate flooring in main areas. Light and bright pop-out breakfast nook. Spacious shed with shelving. Vinyl fencing with relaxing side yard and no neighbors behind home. Lakeshore Gardens is an active 55+, luxury manufactured home community in Carlsbad. This park is located on 54 acres of land, has 383 home sites, & 10 small lakes. Lush landscaping, greenbelts & mature trees throughout, giving the community a park-like feel. Extensive waterfowl call this home. The ponds are home to turtles & many fish. Nature lovers have the best of all worlds here! The 2-story club house has a country club feel. The upper-level houses an office, lobby, card room with fireplace, billiard room & a beautiful balcony to enjoy ocean views. Lower level has a fabulous library, recreation room with a stage, kitchen & restrooms. A large patio with fountain, fire pit, & outdoor fireplace adjoins the community room, which is used for many events. Heated pool & spa, sauna beautiful gym, ping pong & shuffleboard tables. Various activities in the community, so residents can find friendship & companionship while attending events they enjoy. Activities include card games, bingo, monthly breakfasts, craft groups, golf groups, ladies’ luncheons & much more! You can be as active as you choose, right here at Lakeshore Gardens!

18. 2025-06-18
    listed $439,000 Active 1702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1702 chars)

    Gorgeous three bedroom, two bath home in the 55+ exclusive gated community of Lakeshore Gardens! Vaulted living room, dining area ceiling. Stainless steel appliances. Freshly painted exterior. New bathroom vanities, newer screens, newer garbage disposal. Separate kitchen and dining areas, perfect for entertaining. Hardwood laminate flooring in main areas. Light and bright pop-out breakfast nook. Spacious shed with shelving. Vinyl fencing with relaxing side yard and no neighbors behind home. Lakeshore Gardens is an active 55+, luxury manufactured home community in Carlsbad. This park is located on 54 acres of land, has 383 home sites, & 10 small lakes. Lush landscaping, greenbelts & mature trees throughout, giving the community a park-like feel. Extensive waterfowl call this home. The ponds are home to turtles & many fish. Nature lovers have the best of all worlds here! The 2-story club house has a country club feel. The upper-level houses an office, lobby, card room with fireplace, billiard room & a beautiful balcony to enjoy ocean views. Lower level has a fabulous library, recreation room with a stage, kitchen & restrooms. A large patio with fountain, fire pit, & outdoor fireplace adjoins the community room, which is used for many events. Heated pool & spa, sauna beautiful gym, ping pong & shuffleboard tables. Various activities in the community, so residents can find friendship & companionship while attending events they enjoy. Activities include card games, bingo, monthly breakfasts, craft groups, golf groups, ladies’ luncheons & much more! You can be as active as you choose, right here at Lakeshore Gardens!

19. 2025-03-12
    historical
20. 2024-12-31
    price $456,000
21. 2024-08-28
    listed $469,000 Active
22. 2007-09-26
    historical
23. 2007-03-27
    listed $239,000
24. 2002-03-31
    soldstatus $89,000
25. 2001-10-22
    listed $93,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $80,205
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,910
• − Property taxes: −$6,135
• − Insurance: −$2,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,416
• − Management: −$6,416
• − Depreciation: −$11,898
• Taxable income: $24,384
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,852
• After-tax cash flow: $23,592/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlsbad Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607500
• Math proficiency: 68% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,200
• Composite: 65.11/100
• National rank: #1068
• State rank: #87 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #2526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 114,373
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 23,190
• Household income: $159,235
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 714.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.75%
• Current HPI: 399.8502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+339.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $409,000 SDMLS
• 2025-08-02 Price Changed $425,000 SDMLS
• 2025-06-18 Listed $439,000 SDMLS
• 2025-03-12 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2024-12-31 Price Changed $456,000 SDMLS
• 2024-08-28 Listed $469,000 SDMLS
• 2007-09-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-03-27 Listed $239,000 CRMLS
• 2002-03-31 Sold (MLS) $89,000 CRMLS
• 2001-10-22 Listed $93,000 CRMLS