3052 Erwin Ln · Desert Hills, AZ 86404

$229,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 674 sqft · Manufactured public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1971 7,841 sqft lot Est $193k · 19% over $4/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your new home in the heart of a charming neighborhood! This inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers the perfect blend of comfort and style. Step inside to discover an airy open floor plan that effortlessly combines living, dining, and kitchen areas, ideal for both daily living and entertaining guests. Outside, you'll find a generous covered parking area, ensuring your vehicles are protected from the elements year-round. The highlight of this property is the expansive backyard, offering endless possibilities for outdoor enjoyment. Don't miss the opportunity to make this delightful property your own—schedule a tour today and experience the charm and comfort this home has to offer!

Key facts

• Larger lot size
• Open floor plan
• Covered parking

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• COVERED PARKING
• DEDICATED WORKSHOP
• ENCLOSED YARD
• LARGER LOT SIZE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $80 ($956/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.0% in Desert Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#65 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, employment D.
• Lake Havasu Unified District (4368) (urban): math 39% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #66 of 249 in AZ (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 419 active listings in the ZIP; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,746 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.48%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,438
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2160 Sapphire St	0.40mi	2/1.5 (-1)	672 (-0%)	10mo	$85,000	$126	65
3069 Erwin Ln	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	720 (+7%)	20mo	$209,000	$290	65
3101 Lake Dr	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	728 (+8%)	3mo	$209,000	$287	64
3140 Michael Dr	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	768 (+14%)	6mo	$148,000	$193	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-36,478
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-42,074
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86404

• Home prices YoY: -32.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 419
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,817 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $609/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,717

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $210	-5% $145	+0% $80	+5% $15	+10% $-50
Rent	-10% $-64	-5% $8	+0% $80	+5% $151	+10% $223
Rate	-1.0pp $195	-0.5pp $138	base $80	+0.5pp $20	+1.0pp $-41

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   price $229,900
3. 2026-03-27
   listed $235,900 Active
4. 2024-05-10
   soldstatus $200,000 Closed 712-char remark

   Show marketing remark (712 chars)

   Welcome to your new home in the heart of a charming neighborhood! This inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers the perfect blend of comfort and style. Step inside to discover an airy open floor plan that effortlessly combines living, dining, and kitchen areas, ideal for both daily living and entertaining guests. Outside, you'll find a generous covered parking area, ensuring your vehicles are protected from the elements year-round. The highlight of this property is the expansive backyard, offering endless possibilities for outdoor enjoyment. Don't miss the opportunity to make this delightful property your own—schedule a tour today and experience the charm and comfort this home has to offer!

5. 2024-05-09
   soldstatus $200,000
6. 2024-04-23
   status Pending 712-char remark

   Show marketing remark (712 chars)

   Welcome to your new home in the heart of a charming neighborhood! This inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers the perfect blend of comfort and style. Step inside to discover an airy open floor plan that effortlessly combines living, dining, and kitchen areas, ideal for both daily living and entertaining guests. Outside, you'll find a generous covered parking area, ensuring your vehicles are protected from the elements year-round. The highlight of this property is the expansive backyard, offering endless possibilities for outdoor enjoyment. Don't miss the opportunity to make this delightful property your own—schedule a tour today and experience the charm and comfort this home has to offer!

7. 2024-04-17
   listed $215,000 Active 712-char remark

   Show marketing remark (712 chars)

   Welcome to your new home in the heart of a charming neighborhood! This inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers the perfect blend of comfort and style. Step inside to discover an airy open floor plan that effortlessly combines living, dining, and kitchen areas, ideal for both daily living and entertaining guests. Outside, you'll find a generous covered parking area, ensuring your vehicles are protected from the elements year-round. The highlight of this property is the expansive backyard, offering endless possibilities for outdoor enjoyment. Don't miss the opportunity to make this delightful property your own—schedule a tour today and experience the charm and comfort this home has to offer!

8. 1989-09-19
   soldstatus $5,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $609 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,517 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$909/yr (+$76/mo · 149.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,810
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$609
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,745
• − Management: −$1,745
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$3,052
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$733
• After-tax cash flow: $1,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Havasu Unified District (4368)
• NCES district ID: 0404280
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $43,993
• Composite: 33.92/100
• National rank: #5339
• State rank: #66 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Desert Hills

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #65
• US rank: #11043

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Desert Hills, AZ
• County: Mohave County · 181,906 people
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 19,234
• Household income: $72,910
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 343.0

Population outlook (Mohave County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 209,184 people
• By 2030: 209,674 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 205,897 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 196,810 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 169,454 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 136,630 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Portuguese 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Mohave

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.8) · D 21.8% · R 77.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -55.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.8 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -189.23%
• Current HPI: 402.8832
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.66%
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+4498.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — LHAR
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $229,900 LHAR
• 2026-03-27 Listed $235,900 LHAR
• 2024-05-10 Sold (MLS) $200,000 LHAR
• 2024-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2024-04-23 Pending — LHAR
• 2024-04-17 Listed $215,000 LHAR
• 1989-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $609 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.