5083 Valley Forge Ln · North Highlands, CA 95660

$69,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,745 sqft · Manufactured · 64 Days on market

Built 2005 $40/sqft · 18% below area Est $86k · 18% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

All-Ages Park & Unbelievably Rare Square Footage! Enjoy an impressive 1,745 sq ft of living space with a fantastic, open layout featuring ample storage and generously sized rooms throughout. BRAND NEW FLOORING and FRESH INTERIOR PAINT! This home offers 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, perfect for comfortable living. The large kitchen includes an additional nook area, ideal for casual dining, while high ceilings enhance the sense of space and light. The expansive living and dining room provide plenty of room for entertaining, and the convenient inside laundry room adds everyday practicality. Don't miss this rare opportunity to own a spacious home in a welcoming all-ages commu

Key facts

• Nook area
• Large kitchen
• High ceilings

Tags

• AMPLE STORAGE
• LARGE KITCHEN
• NOOK AREA
• HIGH CEILINGS
• INSIDE LAUNDRY ROOM
• CONVENIENT FREEWAY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.1% vs local median 4.1% in North Highlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#523 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Twin Rivers Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #970 of 1,400 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Madison Elementary (706 students, 95% FRL); Foothill Ranch Middle (453 students, 94% FRL); Foothill High (1,251 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 76% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 88.59%
• DSCR: 4.94
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,620
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -18.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5040 Jackson St #76	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,584 (-9%)	9mo	$85,000	$54	59
5040 Jackson St #44	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-12%)	9mo	$74,000	$48	58
5040 Jackson St #54	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-13%)	10mo	$75,000	$50	56
3655 N Ohio Ln #87	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-13%)	13mo	$120,000	$79	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 92.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.46×
• Total profit: $87,275
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 95.5%
• Equity multiple: 12.39×
• Total profit: $223,011
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95660

• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,366 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $343/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $1,445

Break-even live

Break-even rent $537

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,484	-5% $1,465	+0% $1,445	+5% $1,425	+10% $1,405
Rent	-10% $1,258	-5% $1,351	+0% $1,445	+5% $1,538	+10% $1,632
Rate	-1.0pp $1,480	-0.5pp $1,463	base $1,445	+0.5pp $1,427	+1.0pp $1,408

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5001 Date Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1106	$2,400	$2.17	3d	1	0.57mi
5516 Palmdale Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1115	$2,250	$2.02	21d	1	0.64mi
4930 Polk St North Highlands, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	938	$1,795	$1.91	3d	3	0.65mi
4716 Tulane Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1303	$2,450	$1.88	25d	1	0.81mi
4815 Mary Kate Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,850	$1.68	45d	1	0.96mi
4821 Mary Kate Dr Unit 4823 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,675	$1.60	3d	1	0.97mi
4901 Little Oak Ln Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,832	$2.00	3d	7	0.99mi
4255 Winding Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,995	$1.53	9d	1	1.10mi
5129 Myrtle Ave Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.5	1275	$1,895	$1.49	45d	1	1.20mi
4437 Rutgers Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	2113	$2,995	$1.42	45d	1	1.21mi
5720 Brett Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	1567	$2,650	$1.69	21d	1	1.22mi
5000 Tufts St Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,700	$1.59	45d	1	1.25mi
5317 Marmith Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1580	$7,650	$4.84	46d	1	1.38mi
4209 Horgan Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	1450	$2,750	$1.90	25d	1	1.46mi
5728 Luce Ave McClellan Park, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0	1058	$2,190	$2.07	3d	3	1.48mi

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $343 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $531 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$188/yr (+$16/mo · 54.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,393
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$343
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,271
• − Management: −$2,271
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $17,208
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,130
• After-tax cash flow: $13,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Twin Rivers Unified
• NCES district ID: 0601332
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,481
• Composite: 30.67/100
• National rank: #11437
• State rank: #970 of 1400 in CA

Livability — North Highlands

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #523
• US rank: #17613

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Highlands, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 56,900
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,451
• Household income: $68,235
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1300.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 25% Russian/Polish/Slavic 9% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -273.83%
• Current HPI: 438.1022
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.69%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $343 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.